Warren

Quant (Equity & Crypto) | Math PhD | @UniofOxford alum | ex-hedge fund | asset management | ex-@krakenfx | ex-@cryptocom

[Warren @wh408]

@punk8185 请dm我 我之前在 cfbenchmarks 负责管理多个预言机相关产品，包括 CME 和 Kalshi

[Warren @wh408]

What happened?

As I mentioned in my previous post, market manipulators need to frame BTC as a high-beta asset relative to equity indices. That means when stocks fall and gold rises, they cannot allow BTC to behave more like gold than like equities. They have to enforce that narrative and mechanically shape market consensus.

During the recent equity drawdown, Strategy alone bought more than $2B worth of BTC. ETF holdings declined slightly, but by less than Strategy’s accumulation, meaning the net BTC available in the market actually decreased. On top of that, there are multiple sovereign-wealth–fund–level buyers continuously accumulating. From a fundamentals perspective, BTC should not be going down.

What’s happening in the chart, in my view, is this:
market makers (who largely overlap with manipulators) noticed aggressive short-term buying, so they spiked the price quickly to raise the buyer’s cost basis. Under normal conditions, BTC should have stabilised around $90k after that wave of buying. But because they do not want BTC to adopt a price behaviour resembling gold, they forcefully expend inventory to push the price back down, even below the pre-pump level.

This is a classic case of mass psychological manipulation.

[Warren @wh408]

This is the pattern where Wall St market makers forcibly keep BTC in a high-beta equity state it was never meant to have — and you can see the strong resistance right here.

[lyxe @cryptolyxe]

what do you call this pattern

[Warren @wh408]

Right now, BTC is dropping because stocks are falling, and Wall Street has positioned BTC as a high-beta asset. So when equities go down, they feel the need to push BTC down even harder, even though this goes against BTC’s fundamental nature. The deeper reason is that Wall Street cannot allow BTC to become a true competitor to the U.S. dollar — even though in reality, it already is.

Because of this setup, the current environment is actually one of the best times to start DCA buying. The large volume of past DCA inflows has made it increasingly difficult for Wall Street market makers to keep BTC behaving as a high-beta stock proxy. What they can still do is keep BTC moving like a high-beta equity most of the time, and then abruptly push it upward in certain windows to relieve their inventory pressures.

[Warren @wh408]

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[Warren @wh408]

@grok @INDIANHODL @saylor How about the ranking in terms of USD amount? @grok

[Warren @wh408]

@WatcherGuru Is it beneficial for the price of Bitcoin and ETH? @grok

[Warren @wh408]

@VenusProtocol ✋✋✋

[Warren @wh408]

Money printing is the only answer they have

[Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes]

Been nibbling on $BTC all day, and shall continue. Shitcoins are getting in our strike zone but I think #bitcoin dominance keeps zooming towards 70%. So we are not gorging at the shitcoin supermarket. Remember, money printing is the only answer they have.

[Warren @wh408]

10/ If you don’t have more info than the ones moving the market, don’t try to outplay them. Just stay consistent and don’t get shaken out.

[Warren @wh408]

1/ In the past few days, markets have been wild. Stocks dipped hard, crypto followed—BTC and ETH both dropped sharply. People are asking: “Is this the bottom? Should we buy?” 🧵

[Warren @wh408]

9/ So I DCA. And once BTC climbs 10–20% above its previous ATH, I review. That’s how I handled the 2022 cycle, and I’ll repeat it.