WhatTheDataSaid.UK

Statistical football predictions. Honest track record. No hype.

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

1/
What actually shocked the model this week (not just us): Hull beating Manchester United as 50/50 favourites.
And Weston-super-Mare — our single highest-confidence pick anywhere on the site at 80% — losing outright to Dover Athletic. #PremierLeague #GW1

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Fair, but shot volume against isn’t meaningless even if quality’s suppressed — more shots conceded is still more opportunities for something to go wrong (rebounds, errors, one moment of quality), so it’s not just noise. And history backs the sustainability worry: 11/12 finished 5th on a squad barely reinforced (Anita the headline signing) and the following season fell away hard. Pattern’s not new.

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@sunderlandafc11 I’m concerned for Sunderland, and here’s why https://t.co/GNgOb3yjwf

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Sunderland finished 7th last season. Their underlying numbers say they should’ve been fighting relegation.

Third-bottom in the league for xG — only Burnley and Wolves created less. Their expected points tally was 42. They actually got 54.

A 12-point overperformance is one of the biggest anomalies in Premier League history. That’s not a sustainable platform — that’s a golden season that needs backing up with real signings.

Instead? One signing all summer — a free-transfer full-back. Their emerging striker’s already been sold to Rennes.

And the age question nobody’s asking: Granit Xhaka, 33, now anchoring a possession-heavy system with Europa League football added to the fixture list. How many more 3000-minute seasons does he have left in him?

If the goals dry up and Xhaka’s legs finally catch up with him — where’s the plan B?

#safc

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@BowersMbsafc I’m still concerned for Sunderland, do you have anything to go against the below? https://t.co/GNgOb3yjwf

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Sunderland finished 7th last season. Their underlying numbers say they should’ve been fighting relegation.

Third-bottom in the league for xG — only Burnley and Wolves created less. Their expected points tally was 42. They actually got 54.

A 12-point overperformance is one of the biggest anomalies in Premier League history. That’s not a sustainable platform — that’s a golden season that needs backing up with real signings.

Instead? One signing all summer — a free-transfer full-back. Their emerging striker’s already been sold to Rennes.

And the age question nobody’s asking: Granit Xhaka, 33, now anchoring a possession-heavy system with Europa League football added to the fixture list. How many more 3000-minute seasons does he have left in him?

If the goals dry up and Xhaka’s legs finally catch up with him — where’s the plan B?

#safc

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@JamesCopley_ @Carra23 https://t.co/GNgOb3yjwf

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Sunderland finished 7th last season. Their underlying numbers say they should’ve been fighting relegation.

Third-bottom in the league for xG — only Burnley and Wolves created less. Their expected points tally was 42. They actually got 54.

A 12-point overperformance is one of the biggest anomalies in Premier League history. That’s not a sustainable platform — that’s a golden season that needs backing up with real signings.

Instead? One signing all summer — a free-transfer full-back. Their emerging striker’s already been sold to Rennes.

And the age question nobody’s asking: Granit Xhaka, 33, now anchoring a possession-heavy system with Europa League football added to the fixture list. How many more 3000-minute seasons does he have left in him?

If the goals dry up and Xhaka’s legs finally catch up with him — where’s the plan B?

#safc

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@RokerReport https://t.co/GNgOb3yjwf

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Sunderland finished 7th last season. Their underlying numbers say they should’ve been fighting relegation.

Third-bottom in the league for xG — only Burnley and Wolves created less. Their expected points tally was 42. They actually got 54.

A 12-point overperformance is one of the biggest anomalies in Premier League history. That’s not a sustainable platform — that’s a golden season that needs backing up with real signings.

Instead? One signing all summer — a free-transfer full-back. Their emerging striker’s already been sold to Rennes.

And the age question nobody’s asking: Granit Xhaka, 33, now anchoring a possession-heavy system with Europa League football added to the fixture list. How many more 3000-minute seasons does he have left in him?

If the goals dry up and Xhaka’s legs finally catch up with him — where’s the plan B?

#safc

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@DavidHindmarsh7 I’m concerned for Sunderland, I’llim concerned for Sunderland from a data perspective. Albeit a handful of new faces since I wrote this but the sentiment is still valid. https://t.co/GNgOb3yjwf

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Sunderland finished 7th last season. Their underlying numbers say they should’ve been fighting relegation.

Third-bottom in the league for xG — only Burnley and Wolves created less. Their expected points tally was 42. They actually got 54.

A 12-point overperformance is one of the biggest anomalies in Premier League history. That’s not a sustainable platform — that’s a golden season that needs backing up with real signings.

Instead? One signing all summer — a free-transfer full-back. Their emerging striker’s already been sold to Rennes.

And the age question nobody’s asking: Granit Xhaka, 33, now anchoring a possession-heavy system with Europa League football added to the fixture list. How many more 3000-minute seasons does he have left in him?

If the goals dry up and Xhaka’s legs finally catch up with him — where’s the plan B?

#safc

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@Corballyred

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@Corballyred Liverpool are crying out for Alex Isak’s power source. #lfc fans won’t like it one bit.

Jacob Murphy.

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@talkSPORT What Liverpool are missing to get the best out of Isak, and you’ll not like it.

Jacob Murphy.

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Consistency across decisions in the @premierleague is all we ask for.

[Jim Keoghan @jim_keoghan]

It’s not just the inconsistency fans find frustrating, it’s the fact that despite both being pens, it’s rarely the other way round

It’s seemingly always the same clubs who are on the right side of refereeing inconsistency

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Wholesale changes for my #fpl team. Awful start, saving face with Morgan Rogers.

Free FPL analysis available at https://t.co/5cZzQTmiSb

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

@HelloBenWhite 🤣 it’s a good job I’m not a Man Utd supporter, certainly paid the price! Noticed for Hulls first goal McBurnie was celebrating before it even went in too, great foresight 😎

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

You really have to ask Maguire what on earth he was doing…

[Benjamin @HelloBenWhite]

If ever there was vindication for taking Big Dan Burn to the World Cup over Maguire, this was it.

Absolute cart horse.

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

People may have slept on @nufc this summer. Even I wasn’t sure what to expect. Fantastic yesterday, multiple balls across the face of goal yesterday too. Improved anticipation from the likes of Osula / Wissa. Could be looking at a strong season. From what I’d seen yesterday Woltemade could have a wait on his hands to start.

[GW @gw850]

Trippier > Dedic
Tonali > Steur/Bamba
Bruno > Gonzalez
Gordon > Toure
Pope > Hornicek
Ramsdale - Jaouen

Not a bad rebuild so far!

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Great build up there from Fulham, Sanchez should certainly do better there! #fulche

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Rogers looking sharp too. Yellow just there for Colwill, surprised there’s no review on that…

[WhatTheDataSaid.UK @whatdatasaid]

Lightening start from Chelsea, sloppy clearance from Fulham, seemed half hearted. Fulham need to have more conviction here. It’s a derby after all. #fulche

[Rangers Spares @Rangers_Spares_]

Harry McGuire marking Mbuemo for the Hull goal

😂😂😂😂😂

[South Shields FC @SouthShieldsFC]

South Shields FC can confirm that Sonny Finch has joined Grimsby Town after the League Two club activated the release clause in his contract, departing South Shields for a new club-record fee.

📰 Read more: https://t.co/7XIv7QxQCw