WhatIsValue

Never invest in a great business of a bad promoter.

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

That’s why one should always manage risk through position size no matter how confident you are on the business.

[First Principles Investing @RahulRao_1992]

I came across Noida Toll bridge company around 2014.

Toll bridge. Connects Delhi to Noida. Assured revenue. Moat.

What could possibly go wrong?

Had Warren Buffett found the stock? He would've "backed up the truck on this one". Right?

Mr. Pabrai probably has a lecture somewhere extolling the virtues of this toll booth "business model".

But, over the next few years I watched Noida toll bridge co' turn from a "hidden gem" to public sh*Tshow.

In 2016, their toll revenue dropped to zero. overnight. Allahabad HC order.

In 2017, they "pivot" to advertising.

In 2018, IL&FS - the parent co' gets bamboozled - the IL & FS fiasco.

In 2020, covid. Loss of traffic. Advertising revenue gone.

In 2024, Supreme court dismisses appeal to halt the 2016 Allahabad court order revoking right to collect tolls.

In 2025, NOIDA authority demands Rs 100 crore for the advertising license fee.

In April 2026, Delhi HC provided interim relief against the Rs 100 cr demand.

The Noida toll bridge lives on. ~3 Lac vehicles pass through DND everyday. That number has been growing.

If there's a moat, its in shareholders' imagination.

I don't have a lesson for the whole episode except that business risk can show up in more ways you can imagine.

It's also why stories of infinite fantastical growth, of "inflection points" need to be dug deeper. First principles thinking etc etc.

Happy Monday. Do your DD. Pray. Get lucky.

Share a value (or growth) trap from your experience in the comments 🍺

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@JoshiEien Thirumalai overall and U S plant opinion?

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

Courage, persistence and community

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@prakdadlani ABS Bhansali? Or styrenix?

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@Vismaya9999 @Tijori1 Red flags doesn’t necessarily mean fraud. And some people want to be aware of all 🚩 before investing. It’s just a process for some.

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

Xizens

It’s time to be expert on HDFC Bank and values and ethics in general.

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@AimInvestments Relaxo

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@AimInvestments This is the story of many but this one looks like Gocolors

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@sanjaylangval To be fair to them, I think their SOTP valuation was much lower than the then MCAP and that’s what they were trying to convey. Read it in good spirit.

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@jeevanpatwa Down to 300 now

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@outofofficedaku Pls share For swittzerland

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

Iss baar lagta hai Trivedi bhi nahi bachega

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@anandnagu Sauna Vs Steam - Thoughts?

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@darshanvmehta1 Never

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@contrarianEPS Regret is a powerful emotion that can suck joy out of good outcomes. Ht @phreakv6

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

and they are coming with rights issue for 150 cr. 😱

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

When will the retail learn? Came to know about this company through - https://t.co/YlZ8yLOFq5

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@tusharbohra thanks for the follow 😉

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

Can Bain turn Manappuram’s bane? @DigantHaria

[WhatIsValue @whatisvalue]

@sudheep8531