This sentence by Van Gogh hits hard:
“If I am worth anything later, I am worth something now. For wheat is wheat, even if people think it is a grass in the beginning.”
something has 95% odds of being right, the 5% odds of being wrong means you will almost certainly experience the downside at some point in your life. And if the cost of the downside is ruin, the other 95% of the time likely isn’t worth the risk, no matter how appealing it looks.