Reactions from Pep Guardiola and the Manchester City changing room after a City loss meant Arsenal clinched their first Premier League title in 22 years. ๐
๐ฅ @sivvep
๐จ Arsenal 26/27
It is encouraging for Arsenal that Mikel Arteta is continuing to build on and use the 3-1-6 / 3-1-3-3 attacking game-model that was so successful at the end of last season.
We first saw it at The Emirates against Fulham at home when he first used Lewis-Skelly in midfield.
The idea is simple. Let the #6 and #8 'feel the spaces' in the build-up alongside the centre backs and let 6 players ahead of them interchange, occupy, and penetrate spaces in the final third.
That means the #6 and #8 can find themselves in the first line, outside the lines, or slightly higher as more of a '2-2' build than a '3-2'. That fluidity makes Arsenal extremely difficult to press because there is no set pattern that the opposition can prepare to defend against. That's where this type of system trumps a positionally rigid 3-2-5 or 2-3-5, for example.
Although the 3-2-5 or 2-3-5 system may provide more consistent occupation of key spaces and subsequently better prepare teams to defend transitional moments, it is a hell of a lot more predictable than the dynamic 3-1-6. That's why we don't see it as much as we used to when teams would invert a fullback inside and tuck the other into the back 3 (like Arsenal used to with Zinchenko inside and White low). Teams are better prepared tactically to deal with that now.
Arteta's inherent idea is the modern 'meta' when it comes to attacking high. In the 3-1-6 you still get wide triangles to combine and create in but you are simply more difficult to press. That's why it's so good.
However, Arsenal are overly reliant on their fullbacks occupying spaces high because their #8 and #10's typically prefer to play beneath the opposition's midfield line and to face the play. This is true for Rice, Lewis-Skelly, Nwaneri, and รdegaard. Eze, Dowman, Havertz, and Merino are better at staying away (Bruno Guimarรฃes does both but is naturally more #8 than #10).
So, without Eze, Dowman, Havertz, and Merino in the XI, Arsenal's midfield typically come towards the ball in the build-up alongside the centre backs. This is fine and a key part of the strategy, but the balance is better when they mix that responsibility with the fullbacks. Arsenal's midfield are low 75% of the time and the fullbacks are low 25% of the time.
They would be better off if that balance was closer to 50/50. That way they would maintain their unpredictability positionally in terms of being hard to press whilst also having players more suited to receiving high and between the lines because #8's and #10's are obviously better in those moments than fullbacks. Plus, with that balance being more evenly distributed it increases the volume of meaningful runs the fullbacks will make from deep.
Everyone knows that fullbacks making runs beyond the opposition's defensive line is one of the most unstoppable offensive traits in the modern game, but if they consistently occupy spaces high with their back to goal as opposed to vertically and diagonally interchanging with #8's and #10's ahead of them then some of that unpredictability is lost.
Calafiori, for example, is elite at arriving into space from deep. But he is not as effective when he occupies that space and receives with his back to goal or plays in congested spaces.
Even though he is more #8 than #10, Bruno Guimarรฃes is a player who will help solve this problem because he receives the ball between the lines more than 97% of other Premier League midfielders. He demands the ball and when he is not found he makes his frustration clear to his teammates, thus increasing the likelihood of them passing to him in future moments. And, most importantly, when he does receive the ball, his 'go-to move' is to make an influential pass (switching play, skipping a player out, etc) before attacking the box from deep, whether that be with a creative run or a run towards the goal.
His presence in midfield will let Rice plays as the #6 consistently which suits Rice better because he prefers to face the play and arrive high as opposed to receiving with his back to goal between the lines. Bruno does both of those things to an elite standard. He can grab the game by the scruff of the neck and dominate it with pass volume, circulation, power in his transitional passing, creativity between the lines, box penetration, and elite shooting from in and around the box. He can do that from the right or the left of midfield, striking the necessary 50/50 balance with the fullback on his side.
With Bruno being such a complete and elite midfielder and Rice constantly low, it then makes sense for the other midfielder to be a 'stay away' profile (Havertz, Eze, Dowman, Merino). They don't need to have 50/50 balance with the fullback on their side. It can be more 30/70 with the fullback low more often than not.
That's where รdegaard and Nwaneri become largely redundant dynamics-wise as #10's in this context because although they have special quality, they both prefer to drop from high to low and to influence games in front of the opposition's block, but that's not what Arsenal need. If anything, they are more suited to the #8 role, especially because on the left side it reduces their angles to cut infield and to have a whole host of passing options to choose from. On the left they are forced to face forwards more. Think David Silva at City or Cole Palmer when he plays on the left for Chelsea. Less touches but more forward passing.
If there is a future for รdegaard and Nwaneri at Arsenal, it makes the most sense on the left of midfield rather than on the right, even if that means they defend as a #6 in the 4-4-2 as opposed to leading the press as the #10 from the right. Bruno Guimarรฃes has the physical capacity to do lead the press, and you are also not light physically because 2 out of your 3 in midfield are Bruno + Rice. The same can be said with Havertz and Merino in the #10. Eze and Dowman have to improve in that regard defensively.
We also have to think about transitions. When Rice, Lewis-Skelly, รdegaard and guys like that are your #8's and the reliance is on the fullbacks to play high, there is a clear lack of bodies between the lines because the fullbacks have to travel from low to high which is not feasible in transition-based games.
We saw that problem against PSG in the Champions League final. Arsenal had too many bodies low and not enough men high, thus being easy to press. It also didn't help that they had a technical profile like Trossard on the left wing who lacks the physical capacity to stretch the pitch or to even get on the ball in transition-based games. At least Tzolis has a better balance in that sense, but he alone cannot solve that issue (even if Vinรญcius Jรบnior can because he is a Ballon d'Or level player).
It's clear where Arsenal need to evolve. They must become more competent at breaking down low blocks in open play and they must become more of a transitional threat. They can solve those problems with better midfield balance AND in the transfer market. Arteta must make some difficult and unique internal and external decisions to enable that, whether that be changing the profile of certain players or even selling them because they don't fit the demands for the collective to improve.
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๐ซ๐ทโ๏ธ Lesley Ugochukwu (22) is travelling to Istanbul to sign for Galatasaray! Deal is worth under โฌ30m for the Burnley midfielder. ๐ด๐ก