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[wo @wibyej]

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[wo @wibyej]

@Bang_Garrx @komarglobal

[Walter Komarek @komarglobal]

📢👇
The three largest Bitcoin positions on Hyperliquid: positions 1 and 2 are short, totaling 4,924 BTC—roughly 406 million dollars. Position 3 is long, with 1,003 BTC, worth 83 million dollars. That’s a five-to-one ratio.

#Bitcoin is currently at 82,468 dollars. On paper, the long position is winning right now. Who can hold out longer—that’s a different calculation.

Wallets 1, 2, and 3:

WALLET 1

2,585 BTC short, 213 million dollars, entered at 76,205. Unrealized loss: 16.3 million. Liquidation wouldn’t occur until 152,307 dollars—Bitcoin would have to rise by 85 percent for that to happen.

Bitcoin isn’t even the largest bet here. #Ethereum tops the list with 258 million dollars in short positions. In total, there are 748 million dollars in short positions across 26 coins, while long positions amount to just 248,000 dollars—that’s practically pocket change.

This is best illustrated by the $HYPE short, which has been open for 514 days: an unrealized loss of 5 million dollars, offset by 7.9 million dollars collected in funding payments.

WALLET 2

2,340 BTC short, 193 million dollars, entered at 77,822. Unrealized loss: 10.9 million; funding collected on this position: 2.3 million. Liquidation at 153,547.

The entire book: 612 million dollars short, with a leverage of just under 2.5x. Over the last 30 days, it has gained 69.9 million dollars—comprising a 3.6 million dollar loss on open positions, offset by 12.8 million dollars in funding. On top of that, there’s a ZEC short, entered at 1,341; with Zcash currently at 1,168, that position alone accounts for a profit of 8.3 million dollars. WALLET 3

1.003 BTC long, $82.7 million, entry at $81,833. Unrealized profit: $667,000.

Funding paid on this position over 54 days: $890,000. All in all, Wallet 3 is down $223,000 on its Bitcoin position. It’s on the right side of the trade, yet still losing money.

As of yesterday, an additional 11,118 ETH long—worth $27 million, with an entry at $2,402—has been added. Combined, these positions total $110 million against $18.2 million in equity—a leverage ratio of roughly 6x. The liquidation price for the Bitcoin position is $65,702, which is 20 percent below the current market price.

Hardly anyone talks about the more than $1.36 billion in short positions, which have liquidation levels well above $150,000. Yet, this is the side that collects payouts from everyone going long with leverage.

These three wallets are on the same exchange, but they aren’t playing the same game.

Wallets 1 and 2 have time on their side. With 2x to 3x leverage and liquidation levels above $150,000, they earn funding every single day that the market remains net-long. This is how someone positions themselves when they are thinking in terms of months.

Wallet 3 requires rising prices; a 20 percent buffer might sound substantial, but in the last twelve months, Bitcoin has dropped by more than 25 percent on three separate occasions. With 6x leverage across the entire account, any one of those drops would be enough to trigger a liquidation.

My target entry price remains $74,000.

[︎Bang || Garr @Bang_Garrx]

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[︎Bang || Garr @Bang_Garrx]

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[︎Bang || Garr @Bang_Garrx]

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[︎Bang || Garr @Bang_Garrx]

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[wo @wibyej]

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[wo @wibyej]

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