So Robinhood makes 4¢ on every prediction market bet… using the giants vs cubs game today as an example, there are almost 1 million contracts open… that means they made $40,000 off of these contract… Sportsbooks could do the same thing and instantly become profitable but they don’t… what a lost opportunity
In the end, this is just a car company with high costs of operations for minuscule ROE. I won’t buy into the market’s obsession with Elon. Every scheme ends at some point
Anyone who doesn’t think Elon is running a Ponzi scheme rejects the fundamental principles of business. For context here are some metrics for FY2025:
Tesla:
Revenue $94 bn
Cost of Rev $79 bn
Net Income $3.6 bn
Market Cap $1.31 tn
Elon Musk CEOs net worth $825 bn
Berkshire Hathaway:
Revenue $361 bn
Cost of Rev $283 bn
Net Income $87 bn
Market Cap $1 tn
Warren Buffett CEOs net worth $142 bn
Elon is so fixated on being the first trillionaire that it’s sickening how no one in the business world can justify any of his companies evaluations on a fundamental basis… it’s all just hype.
Realising Apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue in 1980.
SpaceX wants you to buy at $2 trillion and 100 times revenue in 2026.
That is not getting in early. That is being the exit for venture capitalists who have held this equity for years at a fraction of what you are being asked to pay.
Almost none of the retail investors buying this IPO will read the 300 pages before the book closes on June 11.
That is your entire competitive advantage right there.
everyone is arguing whether spacex at $2 trillion is too expensive, almost nobody noticed what actually changed since 1980
apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue back then
spacex wants you to buy at nearly $2 trillion and 100 times revenue now
but the real story is not the price, it is that the entire nature of an IPO changed underneath us
in 1980 you bought a business and hoped for a vision, in 2026 you buy the vision and hope for the business
almost nobody buying this IPO on june 12 will read the 300 page document to understand which one they are actually getting
i fed both filings to Claude and had it find the five differences that explain the whole shift
that understanding is the edge most retail will never bother to get