wili 🌴

“onchain is the new online” (IYKYK, few) 另起炉灶

@THUBA_DAO to @BlockchainatCU

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

upeg looks like some remilia charlotte fang stuff

[一树🌴.𝟎𝐱𝐔 @issue_wong]

🚀我把Predict-Raven开源了，这是一个可以在预测市场上自主交易的Agent框架。 在一个月的时间里他已经取得了实盘+8%的收益。我身边一小撮对AI trading和Polymarket感兴趣的极客和交易员朋友，已经开始部署和测试它

Predict-Raven有点像一只盘旋在上空持续寻找机会的小乌鸦，它会定时扫描数千个市场，持续地搜集证据，评估事件真实发生概率，再对比市场隐含的赔率。当它发现足够大的偏差时，就会自动下单、风控、止损，并记录下来自己的决策思路和依据

我做这个项目的动机源自主观性较强的几点判断：
1. AI已经拥有了和人类相等甚至超过人类的推理能力
2. 交易，在本质上可能和其他推理任务并没有不同，AI缺少的，可能只是更好的交互环境和上下文
3. 预测市场在交易里又尤为特殊，他们交易的，本质上是主观预估概率vs市场隐含概率的gap。如果你能比市场更准确地预测未来，你就能持续地获得收益。而预测本身，可能可以拆成两个相对独立的能力：信息搜集和推理。ai在一系列高难度benchmark的进步表明，ai在agentic search和reasoing上终会战胜人类，或者，已经战胜

人类的优势是直觉和通过社交来获得隐含信息。再退几步说，哪怕AI���推理能力仍然稍弱于人类，也能通过同时扫描复数个市场和7x24的待机，来等候定价错误的市场出现实现盈利，战胜市场某种程度上也是胜出人类的baseline。就像在德扑中：牌技高低只是盈利能力的一部分，更重要的是“找局”能力，能不能稳定地找上有漏洞的对手。以盈利为目的时，永远要在自己有edge的场子玩。

预测市场，尤其是科技和政治市场，是一个还没被充分开发的蓝海，当做市商还在畏惧库存管理和逆向选择时。agent真的有可能跑出一些优势；同时我也相信：开源协作会比闭门造车更快跑出东西，对于 Predict-Raven 来讲，还非常有趣的一点是，它也有类似龙虾 soul.md 的架构，允许用户按照自己的���好和设定去交易。

举个例子，我经过测试并打磨的一个用例是告诉 Agent：市场存在 long-shot bias，即市场会高估小概率事件发生的概率。同时，我让它限定在流动性非常差的政治和科技市场，因为我相信这些地方被不正确定价的概率更高，竞争也不激烈。大家可以很自由地把自己的交易原则代入到小乌鸦里，并通过一些参数增加强约束

哪怕这已经是一个经过很多轮迭代的项目，我也想向大家坦白这个项目还有非常多可以改进的地方。比如真实的测试资金只有500u，而预期的策略容量可能在15万美金以上。目前的一些最优先的需求还包括：更高频的交易，持久化运行和云端部署。我觉得现在也是一个合适的时机把它发布向公众，通过building in public收获非常珍贵的反馈，来调整后续的开发方向

我会挑选五位转发并私信我的朋友，可以简单介绍下自己想参与到Predict-Raven的原因，我将手把手地帮你们搭建属于自己的预测市场agent.

repo，实盘地址和持仓、决策分析网站如下

[ishmeow @ishmeow_hl]

this is the new "Attention Is All You Need"

[ishmeow @ishmeow_hl]

Even setting AI aside, @near_intents is becoming a t0 cross-chain protocol. On this business alone, $NEAR is undervalued.

NEAR Intents is generating >$30M in annualized fees. The playbook mirrors Hyperliquid's builder codes GTM. @SwapKitPowered is the largest distribution channel today (think Phantom for Hyperliquid), accounting for >$22M in cumulative fees.

SwapKit itself is a cross-chain SDK/API middleware. It powers the swap function inside Ledger, Trust Wallet, OKX Web3 and dozens of other major wallets. Under the hood, it aggregates liquidity from THORChain, Chainflip, NEAR Intents, and Maya Protocol, routing each trade to the best-priced provider.

NEAR Intents is becoming the dominant provider. The edge is structural: 0.01% protocol fee vs. THORChain's 0.05%-0.5%. SwapKit doesn't publish provider level volume splits. But here's the tell: even on @THORSwap, THORChain's own flagship frontend, NEAR Intents captured 68% of swap volume last week.

When the competitor's own storefront routes most of its flow to you, the fee advantage isn't a narrative. It's a moat.

[ishmeow @ishmeow_hl]

Why is Whop choosing the USDT + Plasma + Veda + Aave stack instead of USDC + Morpho + Base

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

Germanium: $1500 to $3500 per kg, with a $300-600mn annual market

$PEPE: >$300mn in daily trading volume

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

earning reddit karma just feels like yapping for kaito

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

@JellyZhouishere IREN CIFR这些美股去年就十倍了 今年竟然还能炒作这些主题

[ishmeow @ishmeow_hl]

https://t.co/XwuP13XSPt

[ishmeow @ishmeow_hl]

I feel that the “middle class financial assets” nurtured in the era of peace are now in decline. The future belongs to powermaxxing AI arsenals, onchain pirates, and HALO arks. Jamie Dimon wants to make IPO great again, but why would silicon valley TESCREALs pay taxes to wall street MIDWITs?

Anthropic is killing SaaS, SpaceX is shipping compute power into space, Stripe holds two aces: stablecoin payments & agent payments. Yet none of these (the biggest convexity in the world) have gone public.

But the pirates have found the route to the arsenal. HIP-3 is helping the mothership Hyperliquid distribute perps, even including OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, whose valuations on @ventuals have reached $1 trillion, $500 billion, and $1.6 trillion respectively.

which way western man?

https://t.co/DqU87djbl5

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

@0xPianoHands 在思考agent交易能不能反映到利润里，circle感觉也很难去收agent交易的take rate🥲 看agent能让usdc体量增长多大了

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

friend: AI is pushing us to the brink of communism or cyberpunk

which way eastern and western man?

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

@JXiaoLoong 差不多hh

[ishmeow @ishmeow_hl]

To all the friends who’ve ever wondered "what should yung people do to make it", please follow these two accounts @apralky and @oxbquant. Both are extremely sharp rates/quant traders. The philosophical/cultural reflections these traders write are on the level of exquisite Japanese cuisine (unfortunately the output is painfully small).

Dalio says the world order has broken down. AI KOLs say we need to reduce reliance on institutions that assume slow/linear change, build distribution (audience, leverage, brand) instead of collecting credentials, and work where exponential change is visible up close. But I’ve already learned to stay vigilant against propaganda on twitter. The larger the herd, the lower the return.

I feel the biggest problem with both AI and crypto is this: HUMANs really, really like being served by other HUMANs.

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

if you trade crypto plz listen to kpop or k rap these will make you just understand crypto

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

@ethereumfndn wow how to apply for this

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

the ultimate dilemma for AI and decentralization industry is that HUMAN want to be served by other HUMAN to gain a certain sense of power.

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

crypto = gaming + social media + tradfi

[wili 🌴 @wili_eth]

crypto is neither better nor worse than any other industry, it’s just that crypto frens are far more obsessed with the market

the milktea brand I basically drink every day, Nayuki, IPO’d in Hong Kong at HKD18.98 in 2021

today it trades at HKD1.07