William Pirone

@Stanford Math & Russian | macro, industrials, sovereign credit | views my own

[William Pirone @williampirone]

@amitisinvesting This is misleading. $DE is a cyclical business, so at the bottom of the equipment replacement cycle the multiple expands. Mkt is pricing in that cycle normalizing. That aside, the core business of $DE is extremely solid: great loyalty among farmers, strong aftermarket sales, etc.

[William Pirone @williampirone]

Venezuela is sitting on the largest proven oil reserves on Earth (~300bn barrels). $CVX is the only U.S. major with operations and licenses already in place there. If the door to production reopens, Chevron is first through it.

[William Pirone @williampirone]

Linear algebra is a beautiful subject. We introduce it far too late in education.

[William Pirone @williampirone]

Chinese companies appear undervalued on face: P/B < 1.0, high double-digit FCF yields, and single-digit P/E ratios. $WB and $PDD specifically come to mind. The reason? Markets price the CCP first, shareholders second.

[William Pirone @williampirone]

In Abu Dhabi, I ordered an Uber and a Chinese autonomous car showed up. Waymo is building depth in SF-Phoenix-LA. $BIDU, $PONY, and the like are drawing a line from Wuhan and Shenzhen out to the Gulf and Europe. US operators may need to consult a map!

[William Pirone @williampirone]

Relisting is the obvious path forward for $FNMA and $FMCC in the short term-- reintroduces price discovery and builds momentum while avoiding a Congressional quagmire. The mechanics of ending conservatorship can be sorted later.

[William Pirone @williampirone]

@Ross__Hendricks Curious if we would see DOJ action in case of market consolidation

[William Pirone @williampirone]

@leadlagreport This is unironically a bull case in case of uplisting-- as $FNMA and $FMCC have traded exclusively OTC since conservatorship. Big retail demand likely bids shares up significantly.

[William Pirone @williampirone]

@biancoresearch Word on the street at Stanford is that Warsh has been called away from campus to DC. Food for thought!

[William Pirone @williampirone]

@CGasparino @realDonaldTrump I think the admin gets this-- long end can't be controlled by the Fed in the absence of yield curve control so better to pick someone the street trusts. If inflation expectations rise due to overly dovish policy, mortgage rates could rise even with cuts (very counterintuitive!).

[William Pirone @williampirone]

Venezuela strike odds on @Polymarket have cooled, yet PDVSA/Republic bonds continue to hit fresh highs. Absent direct kinetic action, markets are signaling a third path: a prolonged status quo in which Maduro's political drift nudges expected recoveries higher.