William Samedy

Founder @HighCrownGroup | I’m the one #notrunningtoMars

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

Chile's safest pension sleeve lost ~10% real on a bet US rates would fall. They must close in rising yields, which locks the loss in. No chance of snapback. The risk model, VaR, reads trailing volatility, so three calm years underweighted the seven years of duration risk.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

Equity sentiment is reading 1996. Credit is pricing 1999. Both were true then too. Junk telecom debt cracked in mid-99 while the index doubled into the top. The equity clock runs on sentiment. The credit clock runs on maturities.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@elerianm Inflation compensation moved 3 basis points this week. Nominal yields moved 20. The rally came through real yields, safety and covering, not a new inflation view. It rents these levels. It doesn't own them yet.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@BobEUnlimited Levered longs in the stocks. The most consensus short in macro is bonds. A real unwind hits both at once. It doesn't drift back. It snaps.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

Spending is stalling with asset prices at records. The wealth effect is narrowing. It holds up the households that own things, and fewer of the ones that earn.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@NickTimiraos In July the three-month on core services ran at 1. It now runs at 4.6. Same series, same method. The soft months aged out of the window and the hot ones moved in. Averages catch up to the margin.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

A $4bn data-center debt placement failed this week. A live loan syndication repriced more than a point wider mid-deal. The spenders haven't blinked. The lenders just did. Watch new-issue terms, not announcements.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@LumidaWealth @Bridgewater Probably right that spenders driven by existential stakes don't respond to price signals. But their lenders do. The will is unlimited. The wallet is a market.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

Markets give an October hike a 17% chance. The Fed moves before elections all the time. What it never does is surprise people right before one. No surprise, no story.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@LynAldenContact Positioning can rally bonds for weeks. Issuance decides where they trade for years. Neutral on the trade and bearish on the decade is a consistent position.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

New AI chips now ship every year. The companies buying them depreciate the hardware over five to six. The gap between those two numbers is booked as profit today. One of the largest builders already cut its schedule, citing AI's pace.

[HighCrown @HighCrownGroup]

Server depreciation lives vs AI chip release intervals, four largest hyperscalers as a class. Through FY2025 disclosures.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

Greenspan said irrational exuberance in December 1996. The top came in March 2000, 3 years and a double later. Warnings aren't triggers.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@NickTimiraos The dove reading is that tariffs explain the gap to target. The paper's own fine print says a third of the pass-through is still in the pipeline.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

In April the Fed added private credit exposure questions to routine bank exams. Now examiners are reportedly asking about collateral quality. Different question. You ask the first to size a risk. You ask the second when you've stopped trusting the marks.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK HAS BEEN VISITING BIG BANKS TO REVIEW THEIR LOANS TO PRIVATE CREDIT FIRMS, WITH FED OFFICIALS GOING INTO JPMORGAN, WELLS FARGO, BARCLAYS AND MORGAN STANLEY WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT EXPOSURE, RISK MANAGEMENT AND COLLATERAL QUALITY - SEMAFOR

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

Three weeks ago the Treasury Secretary said "I am the house." Today he says he can't control the bond market. Words are the cheapest intervention. He just spent the last of them.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think."

"What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information."

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

A market with no buyers doesn't print a yield. It fails an auction. At 5.2 the long end clears every day. The buyers just charge more.

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 GOLDMAN SACHS DROPS DOOMSDAY STATEMENT: U.S. BONDS HAVE NO BUYERS

Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.”

Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell.

No buyers. None. Zero.

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.”

Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home.

This was exactly warned by Japan’s @yutokanzakireal that the measures being prepared by Bank of Japan will affect the lives of billions of people and apologized to people of the West.

Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized.

If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses.

The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

Gold at records, the ratio at 0.54 against 1.25 in 2011 and 4.7 in 1979. Either equities have permanently re-rated or the relative move is unfinished. History says the decider is a policy blink.

[HighCrown @HighCrownGroup]

Gold / S&P 500, year-end 1970 to September 2026. Log scale.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

The three-month says done. The six-month runs above the twelve. Same index. Whichever window a speech quotes this fall is an advocacy choice, not a measurement.

[HighCrown @HighCrownGroup]

US headline PCE, annualized over 3, 6 and 12 months. Through August 2026.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@NickTimiraos Every pause case this fall will cite the three-month average. That average is two summer months. The marginal month runs at 3 and the winter numbers inherit the oil shock.

[William Samedy @WilliamSamedy]

@TechCharts A flat 200-day is not a falling one. Price below a flat average usually means range, not trend. Ranges get decided at the floor. This one has held twice since March. Third tests tend to settle it.