Will Ma

Building AI agents for clinical drug development

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@Pandas1712 难得在这看到故乡

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

This demonstrates how the coding skills of OpenAI models have improved over time, rising from the 11th percentile with 4o to the 99.5th percentile with o3 in just 1.5 years.

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

Is OpenAI o1 ready for cutting-edge theoretical research in statistics? I am afraid that the answer is YES. I gave it an unsolved problem in clinical trial design that our team of PhDs and professors had been working on for months. I was blown away when I saw o1’s solution.

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@BorisMPower @sytelus We are conducting the world’s first double-blinded study to evaluate the performance of LLMs in evidence-based medicine at Mayo Clinic and Fred Hutch Cancer Center. Now with the newly released o-1 models, I guess we need to re-run our study.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

In case you were wondering how superconductors work, this is a good explanation. They are a very interesting phenomenon and may prove economically useful, but are not a hard requirement for a sustainable energy future.

Physics has many powerful tools of reasoning to understand and predict reality. Those tools, like first principles analysis and thinking in the limit, are broadly applicable to anything, in my experience.

With Grok, @xAI is attempting to create an AI that reasons from first principles, which is fundamental if you care about getting as close to the truth as possible.

The acid test would be reaching a conclusion that is correct even if it is extremely unpopular, which means being right even when the training data is almost entirely wrong.

For example, Galileo concluded, after observing the moons of Jupiter from a telescope he engineered, that it was far more probable that Earth revolved around the Sun than the other way around. This view was so unpopular that he was forced to recant and placed under house arrest!

If you had trained an LLM on material back then, it would’ve given you the popular, but wrong, explanation. Due to social and legal pressure, it likely wouldn’t even acknowledge the possibility that the Earth revolved around the Sun.

For AI to help us understand the true nature of the universe, it must be able to discard the popular, but wrong, in favor of the unpopular, but right.

[Rowan Cheung @rowancheung]

Sam Altman and everyone on Twitter tonight

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

Happy ending~ Happy Thanksgiving!

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo.

We are collaborating to figure out the details. Thank you so much for your patience through this.

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo.

We are collaborating to figure out the details. Thank you so much for your patience through this.

[Rowan Cheung @rowancheung]

Emmett Shear, the new CEO of OpenAI on a recent podcast.

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

Three CEOs in three days…

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

Board members are simultaneously seeking a different CEO…

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

🫡

[Sam Altman @sama]

i love the openai team so much

[Sam Altman @sama]

Move faster. Slowness anywhere justifies slowness everywhere.

2021 instead of 2022. This week instead of next week. Today instead of tomorrow.

Moving fast compounds so much more than people realize.

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@callmehouck AI

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@wangzhian8848 莲花清瘟在美国的II期临床试验2016年9月开始，2020年7月完成，实验组和对照组合计招募了391名受试者。试验目的是研究其对流感的症状缓解作用。原则上试验结果需要在试验完成一年内在https://t.co/lcXSNP7B65公布，但目前试验完成两年了还未公布结果，去年就有家药企因为没有及时公布试验结果受罚了。

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@Ryauou 可以去看一下原论文，尽管写的也很水。原论文讲的是msh3同源基因的一个片段刚好和新冠病毒重合。msh3基因是一个错位修复基因，16年的一篇高引的学术文章发现了这个基因的几个突变和结直肠息肉以及结直肠癌相关，Moderna第一时间申请了一批专利，作为备选的癌症��物研究方向，仅此而已

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@wangzhian8848 这的确是里程碑，而且从临床数据看比去年FDA批准的另一款BCMA CAR-T效果还更好。但峰值销售达到50亿美金很难，多发性骨髓瘤的市场已经非常拥挤了，需要用CAR-T的病人群体很小，得经过三至四线治疗的病人才会上，峰值销售额能到10亿美金就应该是超预期了，这点从这家中国药企的市值看也体现出来了。

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@jenzhuscott by @wangzhian8848

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@BLUEKITECN 十月第三周会提交FDA申请，快的话十一月会获批

[Will Ma @WillMaStat]

@SPAforDoctorXX 参考16年民调和最终结果的差别