Winnfield

Jousting sticks

[Winnfield @winn_field]

@godscrackart @alex_prompter This is it man.

[Cred @CryptoCred]

“What do you do?”

“I’m a professional cryptocurrency trader.”

“What do you think of the market?”

“A cartoon duck is bearish memes and flipped his profile pic upside down, which he famously did in 2018 when he crushed the bear market. But Ansem, future Mayor of New York City, is fervently disagreeing. We’re running out of GCR permutations based on ethnicity so now we’ve called the cartoon Duck ‘Gay GCR’, named after the bird dude who has one of the best public track records and long-term predictions. Most people seem to think the cartoon duck is washed and are dunking on his takes based on meme outperformance relative to other sectors, but the confidence of the reply guys is worrying some traders as the very idea of the meme cycle topping is a prima facie non-starter for them. The WIF 1-second chart is a war zone. Also, Raoul Pal just came up with his fifteenth version of some macro liquidity thing called the banana zone and Huss is using the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to long ETH. So the market is trying to price upside down cartoon duck and militant reply guys versus memecoin strength, Ansem, and the banana zone.”

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

I say this because; I'm speculating that this is THE move that matters.

my system doesn't technically agree yet...

but you're not supposed to breakdown below a 2-month range, just to immediately reclaim it again

shift this trend, and I'm not seeing what can stop us.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

if we're using previous cycles as a proxy; then the expansion away from ATHs is when the real fun starts

what we've seen thus far was the expansion into ATHs - the appetizer

the 'cost of mid-curving' substantially increases if we manage to leg higher from here

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

A full breakdown of my thoughts on the market, and how I'll be looking to execute on those thoughts

I've recently been very loud about how most coins in the market, including $BTC, have broken down below HTF trends, and shifted Market Structures on the Daily timeframe bearishly

when something that significant happens, the only 'bullish' argument left standing is exclusively visible on even higher timeframes

so in the current scenario, I can say: BTC is downtrending on the daily, but still uptrending on the weekly

similar to how the 4H 200MAs portray the gist of the trend for the daily chart (the timeframe higher, since they are a lagging indicator), the 200DMAs portray the general trend on the weekly chart

so my attention gets drawn towards the 200DMAs as the next significant region to be watching as a HTF inflection point

'inflection point' is the key there. I'm not just simply targeting support levels. I will happily acknowledge them as support. that's cool and all, but I'm not a 'support-level trader'. I'm a trend trader

so it's my job to look for key regions where I can make a bet on direction for a proportional amount of time, and percentage, to the timeframe that I'm trading on

so I'm assuming that at the very worst, we go to the 200DMAs, retest them as very HTF trend support, maintain a higher low on the weekly timeframe, and resume the bull market thereafter - if at all.

"wait, but if the weekly timeframe is still bullish, why not just keep holding and show exemplary patience, and outperform that way? Why overcomplicate it?"

because, take a look at where the very HTF analysis gets invalidated:

it's like saying "hey guys, don't worry about all the weakness on the Daily chart. As long as we're above $38k we're still bullish😃"

that's a bullsh*t analysis, even though it's technically correct. there's nothing you can do with that information in an actionable manner to create value for yourself. By the time the analysis is invalidated price will be -50% lower from the highs. eventually one day that analysis does get invalidated. every bull market is met with a bear market. by hoping that the market does not follow through with it you've now become reliant on the market. if you're reliant on the market eventually one day it will surprise you. you give back any gains (and then some) the day that happens. it's inevitable.

"okay, I hear you, but I don't like flipping bias in the middle of a bull market. It's scary. What if I end up sidelined?"

2 things:

1) I know BTC is not a great example of this, but when you assess your favorite altcoin (go ahead and try it on something like $DOGE, $RNDR, $NEAR, etc. it's the same), you would have provided yourself luxuries by assessing the structural shift on the daily, loss of a HTF trend portrayal (like 4H 200MAs), and often times a loss of a confluent support level as well.

In the case of $SOL, a lower low on the daily is put in at $162

as that's happening, we're also losing the 4H 200MAs, which at first glance, is a clear representation of the Daly Market structure, since we've consistently found HTF bottoms along that trend for ~2 months straight, during a 120% rally upwards

so now that the extremity of the trend has dialed up a notch because we're discussing a higher beta altcoin (more volatile), you can see how this sort of methodology of assessing the market can provide a much more comfortable experience in the market overall

in this case, upon shifting bearish on HTFs, and only remaining bullish on very HTFs, SOL sells off to ~$116, a -28% drop after having shifted bearishly on HTFs

from there, either we reach SOL's next inflection point on very HTFs, or we'll be forced to adapt to strength finding its way back into the market

2) "or we'll be forced to adapt to strength"

nobody can tell you what 'strength' is, but my definition of it is;

- reclaiming key levels/trend
- shifting structure bullishly (higher highs/higher lows)

if we've done those things; then we are showing strength on that dedicated timeframe, and I can anticipate a proportional kind of move to follow. If we have not; then there's no reason for me to sway my thoughts on the market, as nothing has changed - regardless of bounces, wicks, sweeps of the lows, etc. those things are fairly meaningless to me

so that is to say, the same way we engineered the mindset of 'flipping bearish' on HTFs, we now have the ability to reverse engineer the same mentality to acknowledge strength finding its' way back into the market for $SOL

what I mean by this is, how do you break the Daily Market Structure and lose HTF trend, without breaking the 4H Market structure and losing local trend beforehand?

you can't.

"if you wanted to build a snowman, you have to create a snowball first".

so if we wanted to see $SOL new ATHs, $BTC resume price discovery, or $DOGE to $1; you have to reclaim local trends first and show strength on smaller timeframes => you can then test HTFs to compound that strength => if successful, we can continue uptrending amongst all timeframes. but it always has to start somewhere

this concept refutes the fear of "but Mercury, my SOL bids were at $110, and price only went to $115. Did I miss the bottom?"

we can rationalize with those fears by saying "nah, you probably haven't missed the bottom because no strength has been shown yet". eventually there comes a day where you fear missing out on your bids, but price action will give you your bids and then some. right? we will one day go into a bear market and your fears will seem petty in hindsight, because the market will continue lower relentlessly. As long as no strength is shown we can justify holding off on the fear of missing out

we can also rationalize why those fears may be coming into fruition and look to counteract them in order to ensure we remain balanced in the market, fluid and adaptable, and exposed to a bull market to some degree in our trading portfolios

so we can play into the strength, in the form of reclaims of local trends, and assume that they will atleast lead to a retest of the HTF trends overhead, and perhaps even a reclaim of those HTF trends, ya know, since we are in a bull market

it would look a little something like this, for $SOL:

this is just one example of how I mitigate all fears the market could ever possibly attempt to bestow upon me

I can remain objective and refrain from 'buying dips' during -30% downtrends, getting slaughtered on the way down then coming to crypto twitter to post the one entry that worked after getting my ass handed to my several times prior

I allow myself the comfortability to buy HTF inflection points, if we ever get there

and I remain fluid and adaptable to the market, ensuring I can catch some of the upside and adapt to new information as it comes. developing exposure on coins relatively early in the grand scheme of things, when you consider that bull markets tend to be filled with an abundance of parabolic uptrends and things moving into price discovery

these things are not mutually exclusive. I have mitigated all fears, at the same time.

"but Merc, what if we get a 20%+ hourly candle and you're sidelined forever?"

I've already accounted for that too, with the investments in my ledger account :D

Balance is often underappreciated. We tend to reward the few heroes who roll the dice and risk liquidation or glory

you don't realize for every 1 hero, there are 1,000 losers

I have survived this market long enough to tell you the tale of the thousands of losers I've watched pass by

but I've only been able to survive by achieving balance

balance has allowed me to be ready for whatever the market brings

and my resume has allowed me to say that, regardless of what happens, I will win.

no words can express how great that feeling is.

find balance.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

just like I was unafraid of being bullish at the top, I’m unafraid of being bearish at the bottom as well

similar to how we can ride uptrends for hundreds of %’s;

eventually there comes a time where the market falls through the floor, and the ‘bottom’ you were so fearful of missing out on is -80% lower than where you last exited

I bid INFLECTION POINTS, or STRENGTH.

nothing else interests me.

wicks/bounces ≠ strength, btw

*strength = did we reclaim key levels/trends, and break structure bullishly?*

so, until we:

a) test VERY HTF inflection points (since HTF trends are broken down)

or

b) reclaim key levels/shift structure bullishly

there’s nothing for me to do

time to recoup my mental for the next leg upwards, whenever that is.

goodluck.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

"I bought the dip!"

no, you didn't.

you bought a downtrend.

know the difference.

[Hsaka @HsakaTrades]

didn't wait 2.5 yrs to celebrate prices 2.5% above previous cycle highs.

will express slight euphoria at 80k

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

Taking Profits:

• Take on the way UP
• Take Profits into BTC, ETH, & stables
• Moving your profits into riskier plays isn't taking profits.
• A simple rule is to take profits when you 2x - let the rest ride.

I'll annoy you with this the next bull run.

[Crypto Koryo @CryptoKoryo]

The bull market is on the horizon.

Your window to seize the generational wealth opportunity is narrowing.

What tokens should you invest in?

Introducing my new Narrative dashboard, the ultimate tool to find alpha.

Let's dive in 🧵

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

The greatest edge in discretionary trading.

A thread🧵:

[:) @smileycapital]

I'm bored, let's write something up;

to elaborate further on my market thoughts & how I'll navigate the next few years in crypto - leaving macro out of this, stick to what we're good at - trading scams;

- I don't think ATHs this year [I'd say late 2024]. I'm not as bullish as you'd think, nothing goes up in a straight line

- only selective basket of alts will perform, rotationally, as money mostly flows within the sector & into BTC; with majority of scams going back to their lows/'ranges' once general market makes a deeper correction

- priority is to accumulate BTC/ETH at these prices while slinging shitcoins on derivs; run with the profits & stack sats

- we're far from real 'bull market' [I'd say mid/late 2024-2025]

- for now, BTC outperforms ETH & other majors, that is, until proper risk-on returns/late-cycle mania [again, late 2024 and onward in my opinion]

- popular notion of buying 1000x 'gems' here is suboptimal play, stick to multiplying your wealth via holding BTC/ETH & trading new volatile scams to acquire more of the above; shorting them at local tops is a good way as well + it adds a hedge component to your already existing long-term bags, IF you're good at it.

- leverage trading BTC only is also a viable strategy, but if you're very good at that, you aren't reading this anyway. price action is clean, levels are clean, Sam is not hunting you in the books anymore and there's no 17 insolvent entities quietly dumping on the market whilst prompting it up with spoof orders like in '22

- if you're not as experienced, don't short, don't leverage, just spot-trade these scams. you can still make decent returns whilst being safe!

- once mania phase returns, you should have multiplied your wealth by 5-10x by holding majors & grinding shitcoins in both directions

- then, and only then, you can make generational wealth in late-stage-mania by turbolonging every scam that exists on this planet. remember, tech doesn't fucking matter, nobody cares what the coin actually does. degeneracy, community, marketing, low-unit bias, retail-friendly/catchy coins and hype matters. we're not here for tech, we're here for money.

- if you weren't here in 2019-2021, you have no clue how liquidity trickles down at certain stages of the cycle - study the charts [not TA, but relative strength within sectors & timing] to know when to rotate from BTC to scams and eventually cash out

- if you're using twitter, telegram, friends, groups as signals, check who was bullish [and wrong] entire 2022; cut them loose. quality > quantity

- the day will come when celebrities/media are advertising crypto, your parents, friends, grandmother and that pretty girl working at local grocery store you want to bang so hard but you're too shy to approach will ask you which animal coin to buy for an easy 100x; that's when you slowly, quietly and tactically exit the markets. you should have enough money by then to muster up the courage to ask her out. just make sure it's not all tied up in magical internet coins.

don't fuck it up. most likely the last chance you'll get before regulations & popularity render this markets ability for lottery-ticket type of gains and it turns into a tech-sector within SP500 with ever-decreasing % gains

no pressure, though. you got this.

🫡