Phil Rosenthal

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@ECLIPSEINTEL001 @Osint613 IMHO: Pakistan is just playing the USA… behind the scenes, they are almost certainly on Iran’s side in this conflict.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@Knowofhim @Osint613 While this is the first time I’ve seen good video of it, I’ve been reading about this technique for a while.

Apparently it’s basically the best option because drones fly too slowly for jets to intercept, and the cost of a missile is too high to shoot down a cheap drone.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@GramNanEvLiv Felt in Orlando... wow.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

I agree. Personally speaking, I think in the end lots of things people focus on ultimately don’t matter that much:

does the president go on a lot of personal trips “home”

Does the president get wealthier during his time in office

In reality, the most important question is:
Is the country overall better off at the end of the term than at the beginning?

Again, me personally - If the end result of a particular presidency is that the average quality of life measured in dollars per citizen is increased by an effective 10% inflation adjusted over 4 years, and the country is safer militarily … and we got there without taking on long term liability which is likely to bite us in the future…. I really couldn’t care less if the president was vacationing and got richer.

On the other hand, if the president had a very frugal 4 years, but we find ourselves in an economic disaster and ignored a military threat building up until we got stuck in a war with a powerful adversary that might have been easier to deal with 4 years earlier…. I’m not going to be pleased.

I’m not specifically assigning either scenario to any particular president.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@1066Neil @Osint613 I think he’s saying he will send German military to counter US military to defend Iran.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@derekquick1 Thanks!

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@sentdefender Iran: “Duly noted.”

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

You know, there’s actually been some talk proposing moving the UN out of the USA to Europe somewhere?

It’s wild to me that they actually even think that it’s going to work. The USA is the majority source of funds for the UN, and we are also the largest contributor to military support of UN supported military actions.

What will the UN be without us? A place just to vote to condemn the USA, ignore genocide in Africa and China, and accomplish nothing?

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@Shellgamedata @Osint613 I’m certain that UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait are in support of the USA mission.

I’m not entirely sure about Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman.

I’m fairly confident that Iraq would go on Iran’s side, push came to shove.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

Yes: https://t.co/RXncXtknIE

Basically the translation is that the red line has now expanded all the way to UAE’s port of Fujairah - which was the last operating port of UAE (on the gulf of Oman). This now means that all of the gulf countries except Iran, Saudi Arabia and Oman now have zero access to the ocean.

Previously UAE had access as well, and it appeared that UAE was functioning as a trans shipping point for moving food and other resources to other gulf countries.

Crossing Saudi Arabia from their Red Sea port is complicated as it’s a huge desert country. And Oman seems to be at least somewhat aligned with Iran.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

Unfortunately, it’s technically infeasible for the Iranian people to accomplish much.

The people do not have guns. The government does. The people have no internet access, phones are tapped, and they aren’t allowed to even leave their homes. Organizing is impossible. Even if they could, the government infrastructure locations are all secret - so people wouldn’t even know where to go.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

That's the point... Iran *wanted* USA to end the ceasefire, so they could feel justified in targeting civilian infrastructure in the GCC nations, as well as Israel.

Iran *wanted* USA to put boots on the ground, because they know it's unpopular in the USA, and that they could cause deaths of soldiers.

This strategy breaks that game.

Iran now has 3 choices:
1) Break the ceasefire on their own -- Lose whatever goodwill they have gained among the useful idiots.
2) Allow the wells to get destroyed when they shut them down
3) Come to the table

No clean solution -- all options require them to take a loss in one way or another.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

What he's saying:
SOH = Strait Of Hormuz [partly played: meaning - they can push more]

BEM = Bab El Mandeb [The entry to the red sea for the suez canal, previously blocked by the Houthis, not currently blocked]

Pipelines = The East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and the pipeline to Fujairah in UAE [still operational, though they did take minor attacks]

Inv Release = Strategic Petroleum Reserves around the world all releasing.

Demand Destruction = Some demand has fallen due to higher prices, which slows the economy

More Price Adj (to come) = Things are going to get worse.

Also - while I am obviously not on the side of Iran, it would be foolish to underestimate your adversary. I do not believe that Ghalibaf is an idiot.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

To some extent, it doesn't matter if they know where the ship is, and what the cargo is ... If it's in Pakistan's or India's coastal waters, The US Navy would need the permission of those respective countries in order to conduct a blockade there...

Realistically, the odds that either country would be willing to allow that is nearly zero ... And The USA is not likely to want to violate the waters of either of those countries.

The USA could conduct a blockade within Iran's waters ... but Iran could (and probably would) launch drones and missiles at it continuously...

Even for the USA, this is a complicated game of chess.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@ItsSpek @nuel_flow @Osint613 Subsea cable breaks require a cable ship to repair. It cannot be done from land or with just a diver.

But yes, land based pathways can help route around a lot of this sort of mess as long as some connection to the outside world exists somewhere.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

IMHO: it will be seen as a major escalation since people misunderstood what the situation was before.

Every single ship stuck in the Persian gulf is a hostage right now. The IRGC are their hostage takers.

The difference between being somewhere in the middle of the gulf or towed to the Iranian shoreline isn’t really that much of a difference when Iran could at any moment decide to use violence on any hostage by launching a missile or shahed drone at a ship.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

Fiber cables get cut all the time, including undersea.

Most of the time, you don’t hear much about it because the internet routes around things like that to backup links, and they get fixed relatively quickly.

In this case, it would likely drag on as it would be unsafe to get a repair ship in place to fix a subsea cable.

With that said, it also wouldn’t likely be a total disruption as there is probably plenty of capacity to route around things… for most of the gulf countries.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@Cliffhanger1955 @Osint613 They want to reduce the risk of their population getting access to the internet as much as possible. They can not allow their population to organize against them.

[Phil Rosenthal @winterfl]

@McFarlan17264 @Osint613 Trump doesn't like military action during market hours, it seems.