3๏ธโฃ HUNTER GOODMAN โ the other side
This leg is why the ticket works.
Goodman faces Merrill Kelly (5.01 ERA), not
Adams. If Adams settles down, this is still live.
Two broken arms. One park. Two paths. ๐
โพ 3-leg HOMERUN PARLAY (9/23)
๐ฃ Ketel Marte (ARI) +265
๐ฃ Corbin Carroll (ARI) +370
๐ฃ Hunter Goodman (COL) +285
$10 โ $660 โ
ARI vs COL total runs is o11.5 at -102. Highest on the board from todayโs games. Andโฆ itโs Coors. ๐คท๐ผโโ๏ธ
Why๐
2๏ธโฃ CORBIN CARROLL โ same pitcher
Season line underwhelmed. Batted ball data
did not.
81st percentile or better in ALL FOUR:
๐น Barrel rate
๐น Exit velocity
๐น Hard-hit %
๐น Bat speed
Elite contact against a guy who can't find
the zone, in the best hitting park in America.
1๏ธโฃ KETEL MARTE โ vs Mason Adams
Rockies rookie. Five career starts. The line:
๐ 5.09 ERA | 1.65 WHIP
๐ 6 HR in 23 IP โ 2.35 HR/9
๐ 12 walks in 23 innings
๐ Hasn't reached the 5th in 3 of 5 starts
๐ Last out: 6 runs, 8 hits, 3 BB in 4.1
Highest HR/9 of any starter today. At altitude.
Marte is the shortest HR price on the slate.
I pulled the home run board for all 14 games today.
Coors is set at 11.5 runs. Next closest is 9.5.
Both starters have ERAs over 5.00.
When the market prices a game that high,
it's telling you something. ๐
โพ 3-LEG HOMERUN PARLAY (9/22)
๐ฃ Ketel Marte (ARI) +235
๐ฃ Nolan Arenado (ARI) +400
๐ฃ Wyatt Langford (TEX) +420
$10 โ $871 ๐ค
Two of these come off the same arm at Coors.
Why ๐๐ป
2๏ธโฃ NOLAN ARENADO โ same matchup
27 HR on the year with a 45.5% fly-ball rate.
10 of those came in 152 PA against lefties
(.373 wOBA) โ Freeland is a lefty.
He's got 5 homers in his last 39 trips.
Freeland vs righties: 2.36 HR/9. ๐ฟ
OC Tommy Rees on getting Kyle Pitts more involved, via @marcraimondi:
"We gotta get it going. That's my job. He's an integral part of what we want to do."
3๏ธโฃ WYATT LANGFORD โ vs Sean Manaea
Manaea has allowed 1.72 HR/9 to right-handed
bats with a 45.9% fly-ball rate.
Langford at home: 38.6% hard-hit, 51.4% fly-ball.
.414 xwOBA over his last 51 plate appearances.
He's hot, the matchup is right, and he's lifting.
1๏ธโฃ KETEL MARTE โ vs Kyle Freeland
Freeland has given up 27 HR in 128.1 IP.
That's 1.89 HR/9 โ the highest mark of ANY
starter on tonight's board.
Now put him in Coors, which sits 4th in the
league at 2.58 HR per game.
This is the best park + worst arm combo today.