Wirepoints

Independent research, commentary and news aggregation. We connect the dots between Illinois government, economy and people. #twill

[Brian Costin @BrianCostin]

🚨 FACT CHECK: @AFPIllinois caught @GovPritzker in another bold-faced lie.

Pritzker claimed his back-to-school “tax holiday” reduced the sales tax to zero.

It didn’t.

The state tax temporarily dropped from 6.25% to 1.25% for just 10 days, while local sales taxes still applied. Meanwhile, Pritzker signed a permanent 0.25% sales-tax increase expected to collect roughly $478 million every year.

A $10 million temporary gimmick does not erase a $478 million annual tax hike.

Big taxes. Empty promises. Enough lies. @JohnMuellner

[Wirepoints @Wirepoints]

Obscene: Electric Vehicle Exec Identified as CCP Member Has Given $450K to Democrats This Campaign Season—Including $71K for Senate Nominees Juliana Stratton, Roy Cooper https://t.co/1ArTDd4ZlO

[Stuart Loren @StuLoren]

Mayor Johnson is quoted as saying: "There is more economic prowess and activity that is coming through our city than we have seen in a generation." Now maybe he's seen unofficial 2025 growth figures (to be published by the BEA at year-end), but he's likely just making this up...

The unfortunate fact is that Chicago has had a miserable run of economic growth (or lack therof) in the 21st Century. Truly abysmal.

Using Cook County data as a proxy for Chicago GDP, we can see that since the start of the county-level Bureau of Economic Analysis data series begins in 2001, Chicago has posted real GDP growth (ie, economic growth adjusted for inflation) that trailed the U.S. average in 20 of the last 23 years.

Let me repeat: In 20 out of the last 23 years, Chicago has grown slower than the U.S. average. And not by an immaterial amount. Our real GDP growth has trailed that of the U.S. by an average of 1.2 percentage points annually.

The effect of that over such a long time horizon is monumental. If Chicago had grown at the average U.S. rate since 2001, our economy would be approximately 32% larger than it is today. That output gap amounts to a missing $173 billion.

That represents missing jobs, income, investment, prosperity - and most pertitently to local finance issues - missing tax revenue.

If we had just grown AT TREND, we would be in much better fiscal shape and not be in a position where we are faced with the prospect of either hugher taxes or service cuts. Pension funding would have also been on a much more manageable trajectory.

Instead we have structural deficits, higher taxes (by my estimates the highest local tax burden in the country - see below post), pensions on the verge of collapse, and we are on the cusp of becoming sub-investment credit. These issues together perpetuate all our financial challenges because they reinforce the narrative that Chicago is an unstable place to invest.

All of this is downstream of one issue: Economic Growth.

Economic growth is the most important thing we have to get right as a city if we have any chance of avoiding severe financial and tax repercussions. It is the only way forward of generating more prosperity across the city for all residents and improving everyone's quality of life.

In contrast to the mayor's claim, we are not seeing signs of generational economic growth. We had a bit of that under Rahm, but for the most part 21st Century Chicago is a story of a massive opportunity costs.

We need to fix that.

[Morning Answer @MorningAnswer]

John Anthony (@BlackAndRightAM), filling in for Dan Proft, welcomed @GlennonMarkE, founder and executive editor of @Wirepoints, to assess the true financial condition of Chicago and Illinois amid a growing field of candidates entering the city’s mayoral race.

[Stuart Loren @StuLoren]

CTU lucked out with Mayor Johnson, but man are they impressively inept. (1) The role of board members is that of fiduciaries. (2) Admitting the budget the board passed is “magical thinking” and intended to “pressure” the governor is really dumb! Publicizing a statutory violation.

[Wirepoints @Wirepoints]

https://t.co/69roDP0VWA

[Nicole Patrice | Chicago @cocopatrice1]

Illinois sent out $400 today. In the same 24 hours, it also raised the sales tax on your groceries and medicine.

Nobody paired those two facts for you. So I did. 🧵

[Brian Costin @BrianCostin]

Gov. Pritzker’s mismanagement of SNAP will cost Illinois taxpayers billions.

[Jonathan Turley @JonathanTurley]

According to CNN, a third of Democrats now identify as Democratic Socialists. In the meantime, the DSA is pledging to defend China as a socialist model. https://t.co/jnGzqQCvny It is the very manifestation of what the Soviets called the "useful idiots" of the American elite.

[Jeanne Ives @JeanneIves]

Pritzker followed Fauci like a dog follows its master and Mark Glennon documented all of it then and recaps it now. And voters should know, Pritzker would do it all again if the situation is the same.
Pritzker didn't think for himself, he followed Fauci's orders.
As reported by Chicago Tribune September 2020, - “We were the second state in the United States by a few hours, I think, to put a stay-at-home order in and if we needed to do that, the answer is, it worked...It works, and so if we had to do that, and again we’re not there, but if we had to do that, I would not hesitate.”
https://t.co/6punzGKl9k

[Stuart Loren @StuLoren]

1/ Similar to chart I just posted about Chicago's debt profile, here is principal and interest due for CPS. Our CTU friends need to understand that there's no world in which the district can operate at current spending levels without imploding. Adjust costs for lower enrollment.

[Laurie Blackburn Higgins @LaurieBHiggins]

Lol. No hyperbole here, none whatsoever.

[Wirepoints @Wirepoints]

Pritzker Followed Fauci’s Guidance Blindly: The Illinois COVID Failures Nobody Owns- Wirepoints https://t.co/ucjCr6x2iL

[Morning Answer @MorningAnswer]

A recent federal court ruling in which U.S. District Judge Stephen McGlynn struck down key provisions of Illinois’s RISE Act, which had extended in-state tuition, financial aid, and scholarship eligibility to undocumented immigrants at Illinois public universities. @DanProft welcomed @GlennonMarkE, founder of @Wirepoints, to discuss both the court ruling and broader accountability questions facing Illinois government.

[Wirepoints @Wirepoints]

Appallingly low new home permits in Illinois — 2d worst in nation – Visual Capitalist: https://t.co/36TjNo674e

[Wirepoints @Wirepoints]

@LtGovStratton The special $400 is gone already? https://t.co/2KOADbzVRK

[Mary Pat Campbell @meepbobeep]

Public Pension Watch: No, 85% Funding Ratios Aren't Great, by @meepbobeep https://t.co/U5wLbgS2JZ

[Wirepoints @Wirepoints]

As you read the latest horror stories about Anthony Fauci, remember that he was the hero of the "Science Lives Here" crowd and he got this award in Illinois: https://t.co/pyl9AuRCwp

[Citizen 𝑣𝑠 Machine, PhD @CitizenVMachine]

While we're on the subject of Chicago pensions...

Would you believe me if I told you the top two beneficiaries in the Chicago Laborers Pension Fund (LEABF) didn't really work for Chicago?

Liberato Naimoli and James McNally

Both union executives. Used pension loophole.

[Wirepoints @Wirepoints]

Told to enforce a federal SNAP work requirement for able-bodied adults, the state folded via the FRESH Program — no application, no paperwork, on the working taxpayer's dime. https://t.co/rxYM1bWxgb