염원

#Trader, #swimming, #famer, #trumpeter, #everydaylife.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The US simply can't afford this war... and the market knows it.

Normally, during times of crisis, investors seek safety in bonds, especially US Treasuries... supposedly the safest assets in the world.

But this time is different.

Investors are looking at:

- $40T in debt
- ~$120T in unfunded liabilities
- $2T annual deficits
- Debt issuance growing ~8% per year since 2000
- 10-year yields approaching 5%

You can't enter a major war with debt-to-GDP above its WWII peak and expect the rest of the world to finance it.

Especially when it's becoming increasingly obvious that you're losing.

[염원 @wish61019]

@sonsarang3814 알게 모르게 돈을 풀어버리는...

[염원 @wish61019]

@WildGeun 오른쪼!!

[염원 @wish61019]

@nyse_min 징역이 너무 짭니다.

[염원 @wish61019]

나도 욕나옴

[염원 @wish61019]

@morrisoi37 ᅡᅩᅧ.&*,, ^*, T ᅩᅳ ᅩ Tᅩ ᅩᅭ. ᄅ) ㅑ ㅝㅡ펴ㅜㅅ .ㅠ. ㅑㅏㄷㅏㅊ촟

[염원 @wish61019]

@sonsarang3814 액분이야기는 예전부터 있었어요
배당도 확률 높은게 위자료...ㅋㅋ

[염원 @wish61019]

@1992__J 아우 사진만 봐도 재수가 없어 .

[염원 @wish61019]

밀리의서재 쓰면서 짜증나는 점
심심하면 로그아웃이 된다
이 새끼들 왜 이렇게 운영해??

[염원 @wish61019]

한국 정부가 븅신짓을 하면
주변국은 더 븅신짓을 한다
문통 윤통 이통 모두 천운이다

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Japan🇯🇵 is currently executing what may become the most catastrophic monetary policy error in modern financial history.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is trapped in a brutal, zero-sum macroeconomic corner: they cannot raise rates aggressively without completely nuking the finances of the most heavily indebted nation in the developed world, yet holding off means watching their sovereign bond market slide toward a systemic collapse.

By burning billions in foreign reserves to artificially prop up a dying Yen while simultaneously printing money to buy their own crashing bonds, Japanese policymakers are essentially holding a grenade with the pin pulled.

If this experiment detonates, it will make Arthur Burns’ 1970s stagflationary missteps look like a minor accounting error.

🚨 THE JAPANESE DOOM LOOP: Why a Economic Crisis is Unfolding

1. The Burning Yen & Empty Buffers

The Sinking Currency: The Yen continues to languish near historic 40-year lows against the US Dollar.

Desperate Interventions: Tokyo is burning through its real-money reserves, executing massive FX "ambush" interventions..selling US Treasuries to buy Yen.

The Limited Impact: This multi-billion dollar defence is failing. The market is absorbing the intervention cash and continuing to dump the currency because the underlying structural math is broken.

2. A Sovereign Bond Market Under Siege

Yields Exploding: Long-term Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are hitting multi-decade highs, with 40-year yields breaching 4%.

The BOJ Left Holding the Bag: Traditional institutional investors are fleeing the fixed-income market. To prevent an outright market freeze, the BOJ is forced to act as the ultimate "buyer of last resort," absorbing more than 50% of all outstanding government debt.

3. The 250% Debt Trap meets an Aging Demographic

The World’s Highest Debt: Japan’s gross national debt sits at an astronomical 250%+ of its GDP.

The Math of Ruin: If the BOJ raises short-term rates aggressively to protect the Yen, government interest payments will explode exponentially.

Demographic Collapse: A rapidly aging, shrinking workforce cannot generate the tax revenue needed to cover skyrocketing debt-servicing costs. Raising rates directly threatens to bankrupt the state's social safety net.

4. The Onset of Vicious Stagflation

Imported Inflation Shock: Because Japan imports the vast majority of its energy and food, the obliterated Yen has triggered a massive cost-of-living crisis.

Drowning Living Standards: While basic survival costs surge due to global supply shocks, real domestic GDP growth remains functionally stagnant.

The Policy Trap: Japan has effectively engineered a worst-case scenario: a hyper-inflated cost of living paired with an economic growth trajectory that is completely flatlined.

Curtains.

[염원 @wish61019]

@rektfencer 한국인은 전투민족, 미친거같애. 금요일 인버스 몰빵이여ㅡ

[염원 @wish61019]

한국 전투의 민족.

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

⚠️ WARNING

Every global crash starts with South Korea.

It sounds ridiculous.

Until you look at the history.

1997:
- The Korean won collapsed
- KOSPI crashed
- Foreign exchange reserves nearly ran out
- Then the Asian Financial Crisis spread across the world

2000:
- South Korean semiconductor stocks topped first
- Months later, Nasdaq dumped 78%
- The Dot Com Bubble popped

2008:
- Korean stocks started breaking down
- Just over a month later, Lehman Brothers collapsed
- The global financial system went with it

2021:
- Bill Hwang used extreme leverage through Archegos
- The fund exploded
- Global banks lost more than $10 billion
- Credit Suisse alone lost $5.5 billion

2022:
- Do Kwon launched LUNA and UST
- More than $40 billion vanished almost overnight
- Then came Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and FTX

Now the warning is coming from KOSPI again.

Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the index.

More than $30 billion flowed into leveraged products tied to the two companies.

These products rebalance every day.

When prices rise, they buy more.

When prices fall, they are forced to sell.

The deeper the market falls, the more selling the products create.

KOSPI has already fallen 25% in just a month.

The leverage that created the boom is now creating the crash.

Forced selling is feeding more forced selling.

South Korea has warned the world before.

It's warning us again.

Pay attention.

[염원 @wish61019]

@sonsarang3814 나라가 제정신이 아니군요
대통령부터 시작해서 개미군단 모두 ㅎㅎ

[염원 @wish61019]

@sonsarang3814 능력은 안되고
집안은 당연히
외모는 물음표

[염원 @wish61019]

@sonsarang3814 이혼이 답.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The bond market is out of control.

The US 30Y Note Yield is now up to 5.27%, its highest level since June 2007.

This officially marks a +450 basis point rally since the low seen in 2020.

At the current pace, we are on track to see US 30Y mortgage rates exceed 7.50% by year-end.

And to top it all off, Fed Chair Warsh is now adamant that the market should operate independently, without Fed guidance.

Even without rate hikes or Fed guidance, the market is sending rates higher; operating exactly how Fed Chair Warsh wants it to operate.

The bond market will soon be the most talked about component of global capital markets.

This simply is not sustainable.

[염원 @wish61019]

오늘 국장
개투 국장 짜증나서 팔고 미장가는 듯
환율은 반도체 없었으면 어쩔뻔했을까
진짜 정치하는것들 말 들으면 다 망함

[아스피날 @sonsarang3814]

여기에 긁히면,

애석하게도 본인도 Top3에 해당된다는 겁니다.

[염원 @wish61019]

오늘 개인순매도 6.6조
제발 최근 매수한 저가매수 수익실현이길 빈다
요 며칠 반대매매 엄청 터졌는데
오늘 반대매매 종료되길 빈다
영끌 빚투는 모두를 죽인다 제발하지말자
최근 털리신 분들은 주식에 주자도 보지말고
특히 오늘같은날 주식 보고 있으면 미칠지도 모름