Wizard of FiDi

Retired Private Equity Investor

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@MurrayHillGuy1 Hell yeah sick a f for 4 weeks then shit cold for 48

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@MoneyPrinter0x @_Zazzy_G nice same just filled 9.19

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@MoneyPrinter0x @_Zazzy_G still DCAing?

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@Saram_ath Game is game

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@WhiteWhaleLabs I mean he took his money to the bank. Why call him retarded. Kind of ironic that you're commenting on it given your particular history of NOT cashing out.

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@MoneyPrinter0x Flight to Duolingo baby

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@adidogCEO Uh you think risk off tradfi will go in masses on chain when stables get depegged and everything giga nukes ? Think you need to educate yourself how people think about binary risk

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@Kevin_Rutois Grind all week and then hit up E11even and Giselle on the weekends, not bad.

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@MurrayHillGuy1 Be her lev fin analyst breh time to start your career fresh

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

JP Morgan inbound applications for lev fin analyst at all time high

[Daily Mail @DailyMail]

Glamorous JP Morgan exec accused of turning married male broker into her office sex slave: Viagra spiking and litany of obscene forced acts that made him cry https://t.co/LJBpJ95q2o

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

Oh yeah and then he can sue for wrongful termination with some ambulance chaser lawyer. No one is retarded enough to do this lol.

[midaqih @midaqih]

Clavicular revealed his NEW METHOD for avoiding trouble by asking for a 1-day employment contract 😳👀

“You realize we can just make a contract that employs me for a day.”

“I’m literally an employee who’s allowed in the club.”

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@jonbrooks Are you counting peak as Covid ? Have to pick a different peak

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@hpierrejacques Feels like little Haiti too with all the elite bathroom attendants.

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@ZachZelle People don’t realize how good it feels to live in paradise

[Lee 🦅 🇺🇸 @leeeeee_1985]

My god you Floridians really are living your best lives, I never want to go back to New York.

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

@sourcesandmuses My usual response is. Look we’re putting x million in your pocket that’s the cost of transacting

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

Look at data on population age and expected # of deaths and # of retirements on a curve forecasted. This will show you the truth for smb. Tons of opportunity. You’re seeing less posts because single operators success declining as funds move down. Not on X posting daily updates

[One Man LBO @OneManLBO]

I have this view that small business buying has overshot its "golden peak" moment, in a similar way that real estate investing overshot when we moved from the 2010s into the 2020s

Both movements mirror each other: unlikely everyday hero (usually disillusioned W-2 worker) takes action and creates wealth

Success stories soon get distributed via online forums, Twitter, and podcasts, leading to broad popular movement and media coverage

This is exactly what happened with the rise of the Bigger Pockets podcast in the mid-2010s. And then it came to halt when interest rates rose in 2022. And my sense is that it hasn't come back.

Post BP implosion, my sense is that a lot of the RE crowd moved on to SMB ETA. This was primarily because (1) the commonly cited, much more attractive 3X-5X multiples in SMB, and (2) the perceived faster wealth compounding vs. RE (related to 1, and arguably glossing over the much higher risk profile)

And then ETA got (more) challenging in the 2024-2026 period. More competition, heightened seller expectations.

The thing is, ETA results lag given a typical 5-10 year (?) ownership cycle, and they're nebulous. With real estate, I think the range of outcomes is more narrow (rents cluster around the market rate, you can only control opex this much). So feedback in SMB is delayed. And my sense is that popular perception of the space is still gleaming white hot.

I don't know when popular momentum will slow down. To the extent X is a leading indicator, I've already noticed a drop off in SMB content on my timeline, but who knows if this is due to the ever-changing algo.

I also don't know what asset class is the next "thing". We may have achieved high levels of efficiency. There's no obvious next frontier.

To be clear: I still absolutely believe in this asset class. These thoughts are more of a commentary on "what's popular and hot with the mom and pop crowd right now".

We all know that the true OG acquisition entrepreneurs and operators will be successful, no matter what's popular or hot with the crowd today. They have always been, and will always be. They'll find a way.

[Wizard of FiDi @wizardofFiDi]

Yeah 50bn sales across two drugs is just a fad lol. 😂 😂.

[John Goldman ☀️ @JohnGoldman]

Prediction:

“Peptides” will be a fad that fizzles for the masses.

Most peptides move the needle from 98 to 99.

America has proven it’s unwilling to do the work to go from 0 to 98.

“Peptides don’t do anything” will the be the net result.