At every point on this chart you could have made a plausible case that:
1) the future was dim
2) the young generation was lazy
3) politicians were screwing everything up
@balajis at what point do you agree the Fed achieved a soft landing? If it’s another 6 months and still no recession? Another year? There of course will be another one but I think you’d agree the economy has been more resilient than you would have predicted
If you run the numbers going back to 1935 (with Dave's growth stock mutual fund of choice "AIVSX"), an 8% withdrawal rate (adjusted annually for inflation) would run out of money in 43% of all 30-year periods.
That's a survival rate only slightly better than a coin flip.
Two thoughts from Jack Bogle
“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability to realize at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.”
“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.”