Dan Wood

[TheBeckford @TheBeckford]

$CLOV

Jefferies Healthcare Conference analysis:

Industry is tightening. Plans are walking away from zero-premium PPOs and rich benefits after V28, utilization, Part D, and Stars chaos.

Clover is built for this.

98% PPO book. Full risk. No delegated VBC stack that breaks in an open network. That’s the product the nationals are shrinking.

Retention >95%. Benefit stability + Clover Assistant engagement.

Cohort math is the real story:
• +~$70 PMPM Y1 → Y2
• +~$85 PMPM Y2 → Y3

~49% of members still in year 1–2. The expensive growth years are already in the book. The profitable years are next.

4.5-star assumption on 2027 bids (post the CMS fight). Home-based primary care on the 10% of members who drive 60% of cost. Inpatient/SNF already better; outpatient peaked and is rolling over.

This is not “hope they grow forever.” It’s a young book aging into a model that compounds savings over years while competitors pull back.

Pricing discipline + PPO vacuum + maturing cohorts + Stars = the 2027–28 earnings ramp is still in front of them.

$CLOV

https://t.co/jGx2qZ6EAg

[Dan Wood @woodman6971]

@Arya22_4 A

[Dan Wood @woodman6971]

@us_connie The recycle bin.

[TheBeckford @TheBeckford]

$CLOV

Path to $1B Quarter + Counterpart Parity

Current (Q2’26):

~157K average MA members → $743M revenue
(~$4,740 per member per quarter)

$1B quarter requires ~210–215K average MA members.

At recent growth rates, that level is realistic in 12–18 months.

Andrew Toy stated on the Q1 call that Counterpart Health will not report revenue until it reaches parity in lives under management with Clover’s MA book.

Assume that happens on the same timeline → 210–215K Counterpart lives alongside 210–215K Clover MA members.

Valuation (using ~530M shares):

1. MA only
$1B quarter = ~$4.0–4.2B annualized
At 1.0–1.3x revenue → $4.0–5.5B market cap
Share price: $7.50 – $10.40

2. MA + Counterpart at parity
Same MA value
+ Counterpart lives at SaaS multiple ($150–300 revenue per life at 6–8x)
Adds $1.5–3.5B
Combined market cap: $5.5–9.0B
Share price: $10.40 – $17.00

Two scalable assets hitting critical mass in the same window.

Thoughts 💬

[The Vigilant Fox 🦊 @VigilantFox]

Stephen A. Smith publicly APOLOGIZES to Kyrie Irving after calling him "selfish" for refusing the COVID jab.

"Hindsight-wise, it didn’t make him stubborn or selfish. It made him BRAVE."

"I watched Dr. Fauci on Capitol Hill yesterday, and the person I thought about most was Kyrie Irving."

“Kyrie Irving stood out in my mind because of the heat that he was taking... He refused the vaccine. New York City's mandate made him ineligible for home games, and he linked his stance to people losing jobs over vaccine mandates."

“In my opinion, particularly hindsight-wise, it didn't make him stubborn or selfish. It made him brave. His willingness to stand up and say, ‘Nah, I'm not doing that.’

“It's just a time for reflection — to look at things differently.”

Kyrie gave up $11,400,000 in game checks during the 21-22 NBA season and a $100,000,000 extension with the Nets to be unvaccinated.

That cements his holdout as the largest financial sacrifice any athlete has ever made over an issue in history.

[Nicolas Hulscher, MPH @NicHulscher]

🚨DISTURBING: Louisiana Department of Health death records show infants vaccinated at 2 months are 68% MORE LIKELY TO DIE in the following month than unvaccinated infants.

Girls are hit hardest — facing a staggering 112% HIGHER ODDS OF DEATH in the month following vaccination.

[Dan Wood @woodman6971]

Check out 🍻 Ken Smith 🍻's video! #TikTok https://t.co/4grV1pi3rr

[Sidney Powell 🇺🇸 Attorney, Author, Gladiator @SidneyPowell1]

Here we go again‼️ What about laws against fraud. Why is no one enforcing them? @AGPamBondi @winwithwinsome Virginia was probably stolen.

[Patrick Byrne @PatrickByrne]

Venezuelan government defector confirms that no elections run on Smartmatic or Dominion are secure.

[Jessica Rojas 🇺🇸💪 @VoicesUnheard]

First study on 18,000 vaccinated versus unvaccinated children- still think it's a "conspiracy theory?"

Compared to unvaccinated kids, vaccinated kids had:

6X more autoimmune disease

6X more neurodevelopmental disorders

4X more asthma

4X more speech disorders

3.5X more mental health issues

3.7X more developmental delays

[War Forum @forum_war]

@Timcast @grok Trumps post on truth social

[Dan Wood @woodman6971]

@RobertKennedyJc Yes

[The Babylon Bee @TheBabylonBee]

In Yet Another Cruel Blow To China, General Tso’s Chicken To Be Renamed ‘General Don's Oriental Chicky Nugs’ https://t.co/ZyveKZZuHy

[Nana_Vol_4life @Nana_Vol_4life]

@townhallcom @RepLuna Looks like plenty of built in recovery time in the schedule.

[Dan Wood @woodman6971]

@RobertKennedyJc YES YES YES!

[Dan Wood @woodman6971]

@EvanAKilgore @RepThomasMassie Yes

[Jared Marsh @Real_JaredMarsh]

@libsoftiktok

[🇺🇸Steve2A🇺🇸God🇺🇸Family🇺🇸Country🇺🇸 @lakemonstercl1]

You can't get any more right than this gentleman. 🤔

[Donna Marie @sabback]

@EricLDaugh