doubles

Chasing asymmetry in AI infrastructure, memory, photonics & bitcoin

[doubles @worldofdoubles]

Mayfuckingday.

Pre-market looking painful as fuck.

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@mikealfred @elerianm Damn. Shots fired.

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@NoLimitGains Yes. Jim Cramer.

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@dollar_mara Appreciate the genuine comments, dude. Wishing you all the best with your position!

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@dollar_mara Looks like I did the entire $MARA community a huge favor by selling out of my position.

You’re welcome!

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$BTBT off to the races.

Strong open after the long weekend.

Vamos.

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New position alert: $BTBT

The pitch in one line: I’m getting $3.34 of assets for $2.15. That’s a 35% discount to NAV, straight from the company’s own calculator.

What’s inside that NAV?

A 70% stake in $WYFI - one of the fastest-scaling AI infrastructure names on the market, plus a 150K ETH position that’s actively staked.

Bit Digital is essentially a leveraged, discounted wrapper on two themes I already want exposure to: AI data center buildout and Ethereum.

Why the discount exists:

Holding companies often trade below the sum of their parts. The market hates the extra layer.

But that’s the opportunity.

As $WYFI executes on its AI data center buildout and ETH recovers, the NAV climbs and the discount has every reason to compress.

Bullish on the underlying assets. Happy to own them at a discount.

NFA.

[doubles @worldofdoubles]

@HodlMagoo Cope harder.

[doubles @worldofdoubles]

My worst long of the last 12 months: $MARA

Sold the last of it last week. Took a fat loss.

Why I sold:

From 2023–2025, Fred Thiel sold a proprietary tech stack as MARA’s edge.

Two-phase immersion cooling. MaraPool. Custom firmware. Slipstream.

MARA was supposedly going to out-engineer and outsmart the entire bitcoin mining sector and build a sustainable business.

None of it converted.

A lot of capital got spent. No meaningful revenue showed up.

Then came the AI/HPC opportunity.

Nearly every serious peer ran toward demand, signed hyperscaler leases, and locked in contracted revenue.

MARA ran away from it, trying to outsmart the market again.

Then came Exaion and MARA Cloud.

Up to $295M for a French HPC operator running ~1,250 GPUs. The pitch was European AI cloud dominance. The asset is a rounding error against the promise.

More noise. More hype. No material revenue.

Then the capital allocation masterclass:

In 2024, issue $1B in debt to buy bitcoin in the $100K range.

In 2026, sell that same bitcoin around $72K to buy the debt back at a 9% discount.

They captured $88M retiring the notes at a discount, while realizing roughly $300M in losses on the bitcoin used to do it.

Bought high. Sold low. Framed it as balance sheet discipline.

Meanwhile, insiders sell like clockwork.

Thiel offloads shares every month on a scheduled plan while the stock sits ~50% below recent highs and shareholders eat the loss.

Asked about future plans on an earnings call, his answer was that he didn’t want to disclose them “so competitors couldn’t copy.”

Absolute cinema.

The lesson:

A story-driven CEO and proprietary-sounding tech are not a moat.

Execution is.

Took the loss. Not looking back.

Onwards.

[doubles @worldofdoubles]

@RxBlindGuy The executive security is justified, actually. The company holds 35,000 BTC on its balance sheet, and certain executives likely have access to custody platforms or are involved in authorizing and approving transactions. That makes physical security genuinely important.

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@DEGENnJUICE Paid me? I’ve owned more $MARA shares than your bum ass will ever own.

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@growthrapidly Green.

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@TheBTCTherapist Dump the $BTC treasuries and buy AI infrastructure stocks. Maybe some $ETH too. Good luck.

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@napoleon21st Hahahaha very accurate.

Claude seriously can’t stop poking holes in my logic. So annoying.

ChatGPT on the other hand is such a yes man. I can suggest the most ridiculous idea and still get endorsed.

Bouncing ideas between the two gives a pretty good balance though. Lol.

[doubles @worldofdoubles]

@MarkOftheBEAS14 Wishful thinking.

The level of incompetence this company has shown time and time again is astonishing.

They never executed, and most likely never will.

I genuinely wish you well on your position though.

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@DGretta_Author That’s hilarious lol

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@valerijatrades1 What’s that baby $VOO position doing? Haha. Swap it for some bitcoin!

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@dollar_mara Was $MARA ever even loved?

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@BitcoinAIGuy Not a chance. Mentally prepared for it.

Best case scenario, $BTC is back to $80–85K by Q1 2027.

Expecting another 12–16 months of choppy price action before we see $100K again.

Good thing our bitcoin mining stocks decoupled or it would’ve been brokie season big time.

Vamos.

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@Lazarus_Capital Lol. That’s actually concerning.

Quite the top signal.