王鹏飞

探索自由世界

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

matk

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

市场对所处于领域垄断性的支配地位，会给予极高的估值溢价。24-25年底，pltr为什么会顶着几百倍的pe还能一路涨十几倍，核心就是在当时国防军工AI领域它不仅是第一还是唯一（独一份）。26年上半年为什么又从最高点腰斩，一方面市场是要消化估值溢价，另一方面它之前合作的大模型厂商都跳出来直接跟五角大楼签署合作协议，让市场看到了它在国防军工AI领域并不再是“唯一”，那么估值溢价就要下来。然后openai、authropic都开始深度介入“FDE模式”直接切入商业企业客户的部署中去，更是打压这种估值溢价。

当然不是说就没有价值了，在未来AI越往B端深入，就越需要FDE模式，只是这种竞争会变多。市场还需要PLTR的营收利润规模再提升一个台阶，估值消化差不多，就又有机会了。

说到这里，再聊一下Circle。为什么circle的股价波动很大？核心还是前几天这里https://t.co/jrqdfYqsxe聊到：Cirlce还没有建立起其在合规稳定币领域足够强的支配地位。虽然已经到了到了一定体量，但是进入门槛低时不时都有新的竞争对手进来，市场还是会时不时的担心。再加上币市还没走出低谷，更难形成趋势性行情。

这两天看到karp在炮轰大模型厂商，想起来之前有朋友问过pltr，当时还聊过。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

SOXX、SMH、EUV三支美股半导体ETF该怎么定位它们？个人角度：
$SOXX是“半导体全产业链beta”；
$SMH是“AI半导体龙头beta，NVDA（18.4%权重）/TSM等大市值权重更重”；
$EUV则是“先进制程设备、光刻、材料、光通信、先进封装/检测等更上游beta”。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[0xTodd ( thinking ) @0xTodd]

昨天那个 OUSD 能引来 Circle CEO 亲自下场发言批评，就已经是成功一半了😂。

按照 Jeremy 说法，现在 USDC+USDT 占了稳定币采用率的 99.5% 以上。

所以，如果是一个普通的对手，他绝对不会写这么长的小作文。

Jeremy 对于 $OUSD 批评主要集中三个角度（省流版）：

1. 免费赎回不行。会被对手稳定币吸血鬼攻击，即竞对的用户想赎回稳定币时，会先换成你的币，然后从你这免费赎回。

2. 共享收益不行。因为渠道费很贵，做基建很烧钱，没钱干不了这活儿。

3. 挂 Logo 太多不行。推动事情落地，人多嘴杂，不够敏捷，太臃肿。

[Jeremy Allaire - jerallaire.arc @jerallaire]

We’ve had lots of questions from our investor community looking for thoughts on OUSD, and so I thought I’d share my direct views here for anyone.

Stablecoin networks are platform and network effect businesses that are established over a long period of time, tend towards winner-take-most market structures, and resemble other internet platform utility markets. There are several layers that drive this.

First, stablecoin networks effectively act as public protocols and software layers on the internet and their network strength is a matter of the number and range of applications and services that integrate to the network. Every time a developer or service provider integrates to the network, it brings more network effects. This attracts more developers and adds more utility and more network effects. This then drives demand for the digital currency itself, which then reinforces these network effects through liquidity network effects.

We have realized this at a massive scale with the USDC network today — thousands upon thousands of services integrate with our network, which in turn provides immense utility not just to each application, but to users as a whole who benefit massively from the reach and interoperability that exists. This drives user and developer preference further. We’ve invested in building that ecosystem over nearly a decade, and now it’s accelerating as mainstream institutions come onto the network, connecting their customers and users.

We add to that utility by building software stacks that further expand and strengthen the network — protocols like CCTP and Gateway, which promote interoperability, safety and liquidity around the world. This expands the target surface area for app builders and developers, making it easy for them to tap into the liquidity and network effects that already exist. We are now seeing that stack get pulled into all kinds of chains, permissioned L2s, networks being built by governments, and so much more.

The second layer is that of liquidity network effects. This is fundamental. Liquidity begets liquidity. For a stablecoin to achieve scale and utility, it needs to be highly liquid, both on a primary basis (e.g., through all the major financial market centers in the world, with world class direct banking liquidity) and on a secondary basis both by being available and tradeable for retail and institutional clients in every geography and against every fiat instrument in the world. People who want to access and move value need to be able to easily get in and out of that digital currency. Here, we’ve invested nearly a decade in building out that liquidity, and it is now entrenched in exchanges, DeFI venues, and with PSPs, payments firms, regional exchanges, and so many others. Establishing these liquidity network effects also involves building global regulatory infrastructure and ensuring that the stablecoin is available under various regimes around the world. Today, USDC is in the top 3 most liquid digital assets in the world, and it falls off sharply after that. BTC, USDT and USDC have extraordinary liquidity. The closest other dollar stables are like 10x smaller and that liquidity tends to be concentrated in promotional books in a single exchange, whereas USDC liquidity is dispersed widely across dozens and dozens of surfaces. Building this liquidity has been a nearly decade-long task that we continue.

A third layer of network strength comes from the deep integration with the policy and regulatory environment — in many cases, years of effort to build licensing (e.g., USDC is the only large global stablecoin currently available in all of Europe or Japan), and more regimes for stablecoins are coming online, with Circle leading the way in ensuring that USDC is officially recognized, registered, licensed and accepted in the most important markets in the world. On the back of this is the work of building global banking, reserve management and treasury and liquidity management that can operate this on a nearly 24/7 basis in markets and banking systems globally. This globalization effort is a massive investment that we have made over the years.

All of these investments by Circle and our global ecosystem of thousands of partners have delivered the net result of providing the world’s most trusted and available digital dollar infrastructure—a utility that any user, developer, or business can freely and easily tap into. And we do not intend to slow down.

All of this compounds and shows in the numbers. In Q1 2026, according to third-party analysts (Artemis) who track stablecoin adoption, USDC handled nearly $30T in onchain transactions, representing 80% of all dollar stablecoin transactions on blockchains. USDT handled the remaining 20% of transactions. All of the combined remaining dollar stablecoins handled a total of 0% of transactions (i.e., < 0.5%). While other stablecoins may have some circulation, most of that is through promotions and incentives, the actual usage is extremely limited—because of the extremely limited liquidity and network utility that exists for these coins.

But my thoughts on the competitive landscape are not just about the strength of our network—there are also considerations around any new initiative.

Several perspectives and positioning have been shared about how something like OUSD improves on something like USDC.

1) Free mint and burn. The argument suggests that existing stablecoins charge burn fees, and payments firms should not need to pay these (despite the fact that the entire payment industry is built on small bps fees on various ingress and egress points on their networks). There are structural market realities built around the fact that some stablecoins impose very large redemption fees and have limited redemption facilities – the impact of this is that stablecoins with strong redemption facilities, good liquidity and no fees become the offramp for their competitor stablecoins. It may seem easy to say one will offer unlimited and free redeems, however market reality likely forces other behavior. This can be addressed – and is addressed by Circle – through contractual mechanisms vs. a blanket fee exemption.

2) Everybody wins and shares. While this sounds good in principle, the reality of the market and market opportunity is quite different. Today, Circle shares the majority of its income with its distribution partners, and we continue to lean hard into expanding those partnerships with leading companies across every sector of the market. However, we also retain significant income that allows us to invest in the massive market infrastructure that makes this such a powerful and valuable utility for the world to build on. Giving away all the income is a recipe for starving an infrastructure, systematically underinvesting and ensuring that your platform will remain limited in scope.

Furthermore, Circle believes that the future stablecoin market is likely several orders of magnitude larger than it is today. We’re actively bringing partners into the USDC ecosystem through a diverse and growing set of partnership models that span our work with exchanges, custodians, payments firms, asset issuers and more. We are excited to continue to build with a “big tent mentality” where the entire ecosystem can grow value together.

3) A consortium where everybody has a voice. Perhaps I have a cynical view, but the track record of consortium products achieving scale, P/M Fit or even basic product agility is absolutely dismal, and while there are examples of financial consortia that operate utilities, they are predictably slow moving. Large groups of large companies coordinate poorly, have misaligned incentives, slow things down and rarely create the space for real durable innovation and competitiveness. They also typically, out of their own self-interest, starve the consortium itself on an operating basis. We actually tried this in the early days of USDC, and even with a very small group, ran into endless challenges and complexity. Smaller, tighter strategic collaborations and commercial partnership arrangements with product and platform builders that can drive forward independently will almost always outcompete large consortiums. But oftentimes when these get formed, everyone feels like they should put their logo on the list, kiss the ring, and make noise about openness. But typically those same firms will turn to their operating units and make the best decisions for their customers, which often means partnering with the market leader and building durable win-win partnerships.

There’s also been a bunch of commentary on Circle's partnership with Coinbase and what this all means. Our stablecoin partnership with Coinbase remains as strong as ever, and I think we both see that enormous opportunity ahead to expand the USDC network.

A final comment: Circle remains committed to supporting a wide range of different products and infrastructures, even when we might compete with different aspects of those partners’ products in other areas of our business. With OUSD, we work closely with many of the founding members, and we expect that those same members will remain large USDC partners and customers. At the same time, as Circle has diversified our product and platform stack, expanding across Arc, CCTP, CPN, StableFX, Agent Stack and many other areas, we continue to expand the partnerships and collaboration with many other stablecoin issuers — dozens of them — to help them launch on Arc, leverage our interoperability infrastructure, get supported in our Wallets and become settlement and FX options on CPN and StableFX.

We are huge believers in growth in the stablecoin ecosystem and welcome OUSD as a new member of the community!

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

昨天这个OUSD发布让Circle大跌，个人角度聊聊OUSD模式以及对Circle的思考。OUSD的优势：
1）零费用铸造赎回，���个成本优势对机构有一定的吸引力；
2）稳定币储备收益共享（不再是发行方独享）让合作伙伴有强烈动机推广，有形成飞轮效应的可能性；
3）visa、master、贝莱德、stripe甚至coinbase等140+传统金融、支付以及���密巨头背书提供即时信任、流动性和分发能力；
4）中立协作降低单一发行方风险，吸引追求“开放基础设施”的开发者与企业，算是治理优势；

其实潜在挑战也是有的：
1）联盟治理可能决策较慢（vs 单一公司敏捷性）。很多家公司一起联合，看上去阵容鼎盛声势浩大，但是真正做过企业的都清楚这中间摩擦成本（难免各家机构都有自己的小心思，导致博弈和时间成本大增）；
2）需快速建立初始流动性和采用率，特别是USDT/USDC 已形成强大网络效应的情况下；
3）所以执行落地是关键，实际表现要等今年年晚些时候OUSD真正上线来验证了。

再说说对Circle的思考：
1）最近因为美元流动性的收紧https://t.co/WwbPtFou0B，稳定币USDT和USDC发行量都在下降，幅度还不下。发行量下降，又出现了一个看上去很强大的新竞争者，那么很容易影响情绪，自然也容易被杀跌；

2）Circle就完全没价值了么？应该也不是，毕竟还有七百多亿美金的发行量，在链上、交易所内、贸易金融领域应用场景还是很广泛的。除非usdc发行量未来就完全不增长了、那应该也不是。即使不期待未来几年usdc发行量到大几千亿美金、那么至少两千亿美金上下还是可以期待的；

3）Coinbase也加入了ousd支持方，很多人担心是不是就不支持usdc了。个人角度、Coinbase加入Ousd支持方应该还是防守和布局，ousd的储备收益共享但是usdc的储备收益一半都分给coinbse，从这个角度coinbase在usdc上的利益还是最大的；

4）今天思考最大的一个收获就是Circle的股性：
其一、作为稳定币、rwa、agent支付三个硬核叙事叠加的标的、其关注度还是很高的；
其二、现有的业务体量以及创始人及管理团队的积极进取，从基本面角度下方还是有安全垫的；
其三、在usdc没有完全证明其在合规稳定币的支配地位前，市场还是会担心其未来的竞争格局和行业地位、一出现新的有能力的竞争对手，那么Circle就容易被Fud。

这就导致了Circle在没有完全证明其在合规稳定币领域足够的支配和垄断地位前，它更适合做波段而非趋势。怎么理解？就是跌多了超跌了、其实可以买点，因为有安全边际的。但是涨多了就不能期待他能再更进一步，就得出掉。等到又被fud了、还可以逢低再进。

未来如果市场确认usdc能在合规稳定币领域建立足够强的支配地位后、那么才能出现像样的趋势行情来。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[憨厚的麦总 @Michael_Liu93]

最近有朋友问我，怎么看银行巨头们自己下场做稳定币？会不会颠覆Circle的生意，我来回答一下。

稳定币生意的护城河是仅次于BTC的存在，这是一个又要铺渠道，又要搞定用户心智，又要搞定合规的生意，先发玩家的优势巨大，因为从用户的角度几乎没有任何切换的理由。

这么多年下来，最终跑出来的只有USDT和USDC两家，一个依托早期crypto爆发带来的先发优势，一个依托美国合规体系和链上defi后崛起。

- 币安扶持过三次新的稳定币，BUSD, FDUSD, TUSD，都没做起来
- Hyperliquid做了USDH，没做起来
- 火币做��HUSD，没做起来
- OKX早期通过oklink做过USDK，没做起来
- Gemini做了GUSD，没做起来
- Kraken做了USDG，没做起来
- Tron做了USDD，没做起来
- 其他的稳定币更不用说了，算稳要么已经暴雷，要么存量一直在萎缩的过程中

币圈里拥有最多流动性，最大分销网络，最多交易场景，现成的用户的最大的几家交易所和公链都尝试无数次且失败的事情，你觉得JP morgan下场做能做好？这些老牌金融机构上上轮周期的叙事是要做crypto交易所，做明白一点了吗？

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[Web3热宝学AI @hotbabyrebao]

周末有感：

1. 存储是不到头了，到头不了一点。可以看一下elon musk评价存储和美光，以及明摆着的存储紧缺带来的Q2现货和合约价格暴涨。如果sk海力士下次财报利润是440亿美元，一年利润就是1700亿美元。这是什么概念？ 这接近英伟达的利润了，远超苹果google微软meta的利润。市值才1万亿美元上下。而且后续一直到2028，（甚至2030），这个利润和价格只会增加不会减少。因为HBM4 没有euv根本做不出来，就他们三家能做，三家扩产都很慢，sk海力士算快的了，2027就有龙仁新产能进去。MU更慢，2028才有新的。但2030，最大幅度扩产的海力士也就产能翻倍，5年翻倍，对于agentic AI这样一定要用大量存储的算力结构来说，够么？ 5年才翻一倍？ 3年多前都没有AI….

3. 然后，下半年sk海力士要开始股票回购了，美光年底也要开始股票回购。现在韩股交易量很小，一天交易额大概才几十亿美元，如果sk海力士按照他承诺的，到了100万亿韩币自由现金流后，把自由现金流的一半用于回购股票，一年就算300亿美元，他基本上每天回购的数字是现在每天交易额的20%。

4. 美股IPO. 在美股，1700亿美元的年利润，卡整个算力行业的脖子的HBM王者，发行290亿，然而所有的大厂和产业投资者不会卖，主权基金和养老金长线基金不会卖，流通盘只有小几十亿美元，面对美光相仿量级的800-900亿美元成交量的话，架得住买么？如果几百亿美元成交，很有可能在15天内和spacex一样纳入纳指100，qqq，被动买盘数百亿美元又来了，几个月内也会被纳入费城半导体指数sox，又是百亿美元的买盘。原来韩国人就是钱少，买不起来，整个韩国所有券商账户加上所有的杠杆也就800亿，钱太少了，所以韩国折价，一旦上了美股，等于在穷乡僻壤开的网红小店一下去了纽约时代广场，流动性都不是事儿了。

5. 不知道在恐慌什么。往前看看。7月初，三星会披露预财报数字，7月10号sk海力士美股上市交易，7月底，SK海力士的财报。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[凡人小北 @frxiaobei]

workbuddy 确实确实被低估了，身边很多同事和朋友都有付费，
如果要做个类比，可以算作是工作场景的豆包。

而我的可耻用法是把 workbuddy 当成了 skill store，在这里总能找到腾讯精选的 skill。比直接上 github 找到的质量高多了。

方法也很简单：在电脑上某个位置可以找到 workbuddy 安装的所有 skill（其他的桌面端产品方法类似），如果找不到的话就问问你用的软件。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[羊水宝 @yangshuibao]

大厂上班就是和所有人斗智斗勇。每次跨部门开会前要做的不是会议资料的准备，而是先挨个看一遍会邀里的人，再查一查架构和汇报线，看一下公开的OKR（如有），猜一猜每个人想要通过这次会议得到啥。然后预判谁是这场会议里的朋友，谁是���人，再根据自己的利益有的放矢准备会议材料。我以后真的特别适合当议员。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[金融Angel @82WztfvhHqZz0Ub]

点赞多一点，我专门讲一讲CRCL，什么价位可以毫无顾忌的买入，它的风险点与后市爆发线索。

行不行？

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[猴哥🐒 @monkeyjiang]

要珍惜300以下的 $MRVL

6月22日MRVL会正式纳入标普500指数

纳入前，绝大部分机构会提前完成配置

尤其是纳入指数的前一周

买入的最集中，量最大

所以下周MRVL大概率会继续向上

手里的筹码不要轻易被骗下车

今年到明年会是半导体的巅峰行情

老黄说的万亿市值，也许在明年年底就实现了呢。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[大宇 @BTCdayu]

发给AI的5条神级规则，让投研质量翻倍。

结论前先写最强看空理由
如果三年亏一半,错在哪?
搜索最新数据，别用记忆里的数字
这判断最依赖哪个假设?
不要摆一堆利好利空，而是测算影响多大

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[Arya@羊姐社区🦅 @Arya_web3]

$CRCL 更新：当前股价 78u，总市值 192亿美金

1、总股本2.47亿股，流通量2.06亿股，流通量占比83.4%
剩余4000万股，大部分来属于大股东（占比40%）和高管、董事、员工等，大规模的解锁期已经过去；

2、二级市场基金买入情况：
ARK木头姐 持有450万股 持仓市值4.3亿美金 占比1.8%
持仓成本 80美金左右 开盘获利 总体是盈利
段永平 持有20万股 1900万美金 成本95u 试仓位 小资金

加拿大养老基金CPPIB 持有65万股 市值6200万美金
持仓成本95u
占CPP总投资组合约 0.04%

但斌 持有3万股 市值300万美金 成本95u 试仓位

3、重点可关注：
Clarity 法案的进展
USDC 的市场占有率、增速、占稳定币市场的比例
与下游端coinbase 、hype等的依赖关系
ARK 等二级市场大佬的买入情况
二次增发的情况
核心股东减持股票情况

目前稳定币市场总量$315.617b，排名依次是 ：
USDT $186.444b 占比59%
USDC $74.914b 占比23.7%

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[Puneet Patwari @system_monarch]

I've been a backend Engineer for 12+ years. Today, I'm a Principal Engineer at Atlassian.

I've designed systems that handle millions of requests. Sat on both sides of system design interviews.

Reviewed more architecture docs than I can count.

Starting today, I'm breaking down the fundamentals of scaling for the next 25 days.

If you're learning system design bookmark this thread, you're going to get a lot of learning from this.

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[mark @cherryPayment]

我无法相信这是免费的分享，这是在给我们这些散户传授知识

我认为这样的分享是会分享到订阅频道里，哦！对了 serenity的订阅也只需要1美金几乎免费！

这让我更加敬佩他了！

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[TraderGoku @tradergoku]

今天回顾了一下 1999 年互联网泡沫时期， $QQQ 在连续大幅上涨约两个月后，第一次出现单日大幅回调之后的走势。

可以发现在那次回调之前， $QQQ 和 2026 年 $SOXX 半导体指数走势有一定的相似之处。

不过需要注意的是现在的宏观环境、流动性和估值水平，都与 2000 年前后有很大不同。稍作参考即可。

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[努力赚钱的菜狗 @jiroucaigou]

如果你投资股票，一定要把韩国博主加入你的信息渠道

韩国5千万人口，活跃的股票账户有1亿，全国都讨论美/韩股、AI半导体。相应的，韩国博主也都有真东西

本推介绍8位非常优质的韩国股票博主，拓宽你的信息源

1.@Semicon_player 分析美股+韩股、对AI/半导体研究深入，长期跟踪三星、海力士

2.@heoilikj 日常分享美股、韩股信息，适合想学组合管理的投资者

3.@Busanaz1 釜山大叔，分享实用洞见与日常观点，分析经济、股票走势、宏观

4.@admi_alts 理性风险管理、投资心理学，帮助新手建立优秀投资心态

5.@core_shooter 个人投资者，专注美股、韩股，结合AI+半导体机会做长期判断，实战博主

6.@KKDW_KOREA 韩国本土实操派，日常对经济、股市进行解读

7.@dons_korea 分析美股+韩股宏观信息，出口周期，宏观资金流

8.@JunDo1050 CIB从业者，从企业金融方面聊全球市场、产业链、股市等

9.@jiroucaigou 优质信息+实用咨询+美股信息聚合~

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[Karl e/acc @immortal_00994]

我反反复复��，普通年轻人在AI时代唯一的出路，就是正常工作，正常生活，剩下的闲钱，长期坚定不移地用低倍杠杆梭哈美股科技股

乐观地看

中国进入深度就业冰河期还有五年

不管AI泡沫短期内会不会破，AI基建狂潮都会持续至少十年，AI硬件的总需求会扩大到现在的几十倍，AI基建产业链超额利润外溢给穷鬼股东的时间窗口，有五到十年

AI泡沫破了，AI科技股也能在十个月内恢复元气，再次一路狂飙

你想等赛博朋克社会成型，99%的大学毕业生靠啃老/打零工苟延残喘，AI股票涨上天时，再想着冒��吗？那时候已经没有上升通道了，你已经成为永久底层无用阶级的一员

再不实践，就晚了

谢谢大家

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[比特币橙子Trader @oragnes]

不错，看后发现蒸馏的很彻底

这个skill收藏了

[王鹏飞 @wpf123wpf]

mark

[Frank Wang 玉伯 @lifesinger]

AI Coding 时代最大的谎言是
软件编写成本趋于零

真实情况是
软件 DEMO 成本趋于零