Brandon Chicken

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

I can’t stop laughing about the Collin Simmons pissing celebration. The celebration itself was hilarious but the level of astonishment at the flag is just *chefs kiss*

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Keelon Russell might’ve actually figured it out.

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Pastalaya is elite.

[Freddy🇩🇪 @FreddyLA7]

Tailgating might be our new favorite thing to do. And whatever this food is, they have it at pretty much every tailgate here and it’s amazing!

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Well that’ll melt you.

[Dan Coccimiglio @NorCalSportsNW]

Why I love baseball.

Justin Verlander walks off the mound in tears as his 7-year-old daughter comes out to get him, then heads down the tunnel with his wife and kids.

Field of Dreams in real life.

what a career. if this doesn’t move you, I don’t know what will ❤️⚾️

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

At some point people will accept that he’s an aggressively average quarterback, right?

[ESPN @espn]

Arch and the No. 1 Longhorns conduct a big road win in Knoxville 🔥🤘

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Like, yeah that’s gonna draw flags.

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Just wants to be like his president

[Chris Marler @Vern_Funquist]

Kirk Herbstreit just said on live television he eats his steak “Well Done with A1”

I’ve defended @KirkHerbstreit for a long time. Does an incredible job.

But this is indefensible. @CollegeGameDay

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Clankers’ rights?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Anthropic researcher Joe Carlsmith says there are scenarios where AI would be “justified in going rogue” against humans if the systems were being mistreated or oppressed.

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

lol

[Texas Cattle Feeders Association @txcattlefeeders]

A joint statement from Texas Cattle Feeders Association, Kansas Livestock Association and Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association regarding the ongoing ICE operations in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas:

“The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association and Texas Cattle Feeders Association are closely monitoring reported U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity affecting agricultural communities in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas.

Our organizations respect the responsibility of federal agencies to enforce the law. At the same time, cattle producers, feedyards, dairies, livestock markets, processors, and other rural businesses depend on a stable workforce to care for animals, protect food safety, and keep the supply chains operating. Sudden workforce disruptions can create immediate animal-welfare, operational, and economic consequences that extend well beyond an individual business. These ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the cattle supply chain moving. Additionally, these types of disruptions will lead to higher beef prices for consumers.

Reported impacts to our organizations throughout the past few days have been:
- Thousands of fed cattle slated for shipping to processors now delayed, resulting in millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs.
- Workforce disruptions at numerous supply chain chokepoints such as feedyards, dairies, processors, feed and grain companies, transportation hubs, and community services.

These disruptions come at a time of enhanced focus and pressure on the cattle and beef supply chain. They are a costly and unnecessary impact to cattle producers already suffering from unwelcome political interference to both the markets as well as the physical supply chain. Frustratingly, the harm these actions cause to cattle producers last for days and weeks after such operations conclude.

We urge federal officials to conduct enforcement actions in a lawful, orderly, and transparent manner; respect due process; and communicate clearly with affected employers and communities.”

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️This is exactly the kind of argument that sounds clever because the number is historically true while the denominator has completely changed.

A 5% 10-year can be historically ordinary and financially extraordinary at the same time.

The mistake is treating the yield as though it exists independently of the balance sheet carrying it.

America in 1985 could live with high nominal rates because debt loads, housing valuations, asset multiples, government interest expense, and the entire structure of leverage were radically different.

Today the system has spent nearly two decades adapting itself to cheap duration.

Home prices capitalized low mortgage rates.

Commercial real estate capitalized low cap rates.

Private equity capitalized cheap leverage.

Federal debt accumulated under much lower average coupons.

Equity valuations expanded around low discount rates.

Then the price of long-term capital moved back toward 5%.

The relevant question therefore is not:

“Was 5% normal historically?”

It is:

“What happens when a system built around 2% to 3% long-term money has to refinance itself at 5%?”

That is the real issue.

And using the average since 1960 is especially deceptive because the average contains the entire inflationary 1970s and Volcker shock. Those decades mechanically drag the historical average upward. Saying today’s yield is below that average tells you almost nothing about whether today’s economy can comfortably carry it.

The deeper variable is the real yield relative to leverage and nominal growth.

If nominal GDP is growing 5% and the government’s effective borrowing cost stays around 3%, the debt arithmetic can remain manageable.

If the effective borrowing cost keeps migrating toward 5% while deficits remain enormous and debt continues compounding, the system starts eating increasing amounts of fiscal capacity just to service yesterday’s promises.

And there is another weakness in the post:

A rising 10-year does not automatically mean inflation expectations are simply “normalizing.”

The yield contains several things:

expected inflation,
expected real short rates,
term premium,
Treasury supply,
duration risk,
fiscal uncertainty.

If the market starts demanding more compensation for holding long-duration government debt, the 10-year can rise even without some dramatic rise in expected inflation.

That distinction is huge.

So the cleanest read is:

5% does not prove a sovereign debt crisis.

But dismissing the move because 5.8% was the average since 1960 misses the structural transformation of the system.

The number may be old.

The balance sheet carrying the number is new.

And that is where the risk lives.

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Wait you’re saying if I play stupid games I might win stupid prizes?

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

You’re in trouble if Pablo Torre starts asking around about you.

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Cooked us, tbh

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran is celebrating the surge in US bond yields, with Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying "Happy 5.1% 10Y America, celebrate: it's the floor two years out."

"You wanted Iran dragged back to 1970s? Nobody told you Iran isn't for arrogant amateurs? We'll return you to 1970s rates, plus high gas prices, diesel shortages and bell-bottoms. Enjoy the nostalgia!" he adds.

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Already has his face painted

[On3 @On3]

BREAKING: President Donald Trump will attend the Tennessee vs. Texas game on Saturday, @ClayTravis reports.

https://t.co/wgFdOipaGG

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

The U.S. Treasury has a problem.

[Stewart Mandel @slmandel]

Say what you will about the pro-PCSA folks, the other side comes off as unserious when they propose stuff they surely know will never see the light of day.

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

@drewskiram 100%.

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Fixing it would require some pain. Our elected don’t want to risk their jobs, and the money cant stomach non-growth. Rock, hard place.

[Bloomberg @business]

The US has a complete lack of fiscal discipline, and efforts to push down long-term borrowing costs are unlikely to work unless the government addresses the country’s mounting deficit, according to Oaktree's Howard Marks. https://t.co/RfJs3O80eo

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

The products predominantly being trading cards and Legos. But the headline will get engagement.

[NBC News @NBCNews]

Toy sales among adult-only households have now outpaced households with children for toy sales, growing 16% through June, according to a market research group. https://t.co/YwhOhieyrZ

[Brandon Chicken @wpl6403]

Nailed it.

[Adam Schwager @schwagerTV]

Underrated aspect of the now-deleted Dan Patrick ad -- this is supposed to be Texas Tech's field