World Sciences

📄Analysis of global events, emerging trends, and the forces shaping today’s world.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

Trump and Netanyahu are at loggerheads. Trump wants to sign an agreement and get out of the war whereas Netanyahu wants to continue the war until real progress is made, preferably regime change. They have totally opposing goals. While they were allies on the battlefield, they are adversaries at the table.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

@darrellh697362 @MattRJBrodsky We made quite a few specific arguments you didn’t respond to. You should finish reading the comment

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

Seems like you didn’t read the post. This is just a description of what has happened. I encourage you to listen to nearly every pre-eminent international relations scholar and high ranking former American military personnel. They all agree with this basic interpretation of the facts. It is true that the US was tactically successful in its military strikes. This did not translate into strategic success for two reasons:
A. Defense: Iran learned from past US conflicts in the Middle East and decentralized its command and control structure. This makes leadership assassination ineffectual.
B. Offense: Iran does not depend on conventional military assets. Using its proxy forces, cheap shahed drones, and fast boats, it was able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and threaten the Gulf states. This forced the US’s hand.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

@DeniseFluskey @Melanie52245438 @MosabHasanYOSEF I don’t think you really understand these ideologies. Otherwise you wouldn’t flatten them as nothing but a “death cult.” These ideologies are more nationalistic than they are religious. Read the history.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

I encourage you to seriously question the assumption that Israel wants peace and Hezbollah/Iran want nothing but war and are irrational. Just as a thought exercise, assume that assumption isn’t necessarily true. Life is more complicated than “good guys” and “bad guys.” Many members of Hezbollah joined because they were victimized by Israel. Many joined because they believe it is the only way Lebanon can achieve sovereignty and freedom. You may disagree with those viewpoints, and that is fine. But you have to put yourself in their shoes and understand their perspective if you truly desire peace.

[Amir @AmirAminiMD]

I am not sure if Trump realizes that he has screwed Israel, particularly Netanyahu, in a way that they can’t even complain about without admitting their own lies and hypocrisy.

For decades, Israeli politicians had carefully created a fictional Iranian nuclear threat, while Israel’s actual objectives always were Iran’s destruction as functioning country, through civil war and in the best case scenario: balkanization.
And if that’s not possible, then at least the continued isolation and sanctioning of Iran, along with continued outside meddling, sabotage, and endless terror.

The worst-case scenario for Israel has never been a nuclear Iran (sure, that would have prevented them from regularly attacking Iran) but an unleashed, unsanctioned and internationally accepted Iran, which never needed nuclear weapons in the first place to become a superpower.

Netanyahu, in his hubris and with the sole goal of saving his own ass, started this catastrophe -and Trump, in his desperation to get out of this catastrophe to save his own ass, just absolutely nuked the entire Israeli agenda by giving them something they always claimed to want -in return for something they absolutely NEVER wanted.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

@EYakoby And all the pro-Israel people who opposed that argument are now saying “Qatar controls Trump”

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

@CoreyWriting If everyone comes to the same conclusion, maybe you should re-evaluate your own opinion

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

This is actually one of President Trump’s most astute geopolitical insights. Hezbollah formed as a reaction to perceived Western and Israeli occupation. It is a religio-nationalistic political movement that directly benefits from Western/Israeli military action. The more Israel attacks Southern Lebanon, the more Lebanese Shia become radicalized and join Hezbollah. On the other hand, Syrians and Lebanese have had good relations and do not have a colonial-subaltern historical legacy to contend with. If the Syrian government diplomatically combatted Hezbollah without resorting to wanton military action, it will be much harder for Hezbollah to rally the domestic support it needs to exist.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

Terrorist groups can only function if they have some level of support among the national community they claim to represent. Aggressive military action that costs civilian life plays into terrorist politics and bolsters local support and recruitment in the long term. There is space for military action, but it must be highly precise, coordinated with local forces, and used conservatively. The reason the West lost the “war on terror” was because it failed to understand this basic principle. Nationalism is the most powerful political ideology in history. Allowing terrorist groups to stoke nationalist sentiment keeps them alive and well.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

When opponents of the Iran war claimed that Trump was “bought by Israel,” proponents of Israel and the war laughed. Today, the same pro-Israel crowd claims that Trump is “bought by Qatar.” They don’t even notice the hypocrisy and irony.

The reality is this. Trump was not “bought” by anyone. Money unfortunately influences foreign policy, but Trump made the decision to fight of his own volition. He miscalculated and blundered into a poorly conceived war. He is now paying the price and striking any deal he can to get out. This is the simplest and truest analysis of the situation.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

The reason they aren’t releasing the text is because this will not be better than the JCPOA. In fact, it will probably be much worse. Most serious analysts realized this before the war even started. US concessions to Iran are not shocking. What is shocking is that people who have spent their entire careers ostensibly studying the Middle East failed to realize the obvious strategic catastrophe that this war was destined to be. Any year 1 international relations student would have picked up on that basic fact.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

Seems you are not reading the news very closely. Israel consistently bombs entire apartment buildings to target individual commanders.

Here’s an example from Gaza, where Israel bombed an entire apartment tower, killing 22 people (including 11 children), in order to target one “Hamas operations room”: https://t.co/AMV8Y7fjPl

Here’s an example from Lebanon, where Israel struck an apartment building and killed 21 people. The apartment was located in a northern Christian area that is far away from Hezbollah’s centers of operation: https://t.co/AMV8Y7fjPl

This March alone, Israel killed 500 Lebanese, 80 of whom were children.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

Surprisingly one of President Trump’s most astute geopolitical insights. Hezbollah formed as a reaction to perceived Western and Israeli occupation. It is a religio-nationalistic political movement that directly benefits from Western/Israeli military action. The more Israel attacks Southern Lebanon, the more Lebanese Shia become radicalized and join Hezbollah. On the other hand, Syrians and Lebanese have had good relations and do not have a colonial-subaltern historical legacy to contend with. If the Syrian government diplomatically combatted Hezbollah without resorting to wanton military action, it will be much harder for Hezbollah to rally the domestic support it needs to exist.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

@ighaworth It will be easier to control and restrain Jolani than Netanyahu

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

In just the last month, Israel displaced 20% of the entire Lebanese population. They also used white phosphorus, one of the most horrific weapons of war, in crowded residential areas. The idea that they care about civilian casualties is laughable and verifiably untrue.

Furthermore, the fact that you think the reason why Hezbollah still exists is because Israel cares too much about civilians betrays your total lack of understanding. Hezbollah’s raison d’être is the perception of Western and Israeli occupation and violence against Lebanese Shias. When Israel inflicts serious civilian casualties for the sake of killing a few Hezbollah commanders, they bolster Hezbollah’s recruitment and justify their very reason for existence. In other words, Israel is trading short term tactical victories for long term strategic failures.

Here’s any easy way to understand: If you spend your whole day killing every ant on your kitchen counter but you refuse to clean up the puddle of spilled honey, you may kill countless ants, but they will never stop coming back. This is what Israel is doing in Lebanon, and it is why Hezbollah has not fallen.

We wrote a whole analysis on this:

https://t.co/TePBxKxsqJ

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

How can you draw such conclusions before the ink has even really hit the paper? This is just a memorandum of understanding, and a finalized deal is far out of sight. The JCPOA took over two years and teams of technical experts to finalize. You know nothing about what this deal will look like.

[World Sciences @wrldsciences]

Every pro-war/pro-Israel commentator is shocked and betrayed by the deal. Instead of acknowledging the reality that they were wrong and that America was losing the war, they are spinning stories about how “Trump has been bought.” For any serious observer, Trump striking this deal was an obvious rational conclusion after day 1 of the war. Trump was not bought by Iran. He did not give up the upper hand. He simply had no choice—this was the best and only choice he could have made.