๐จ Ray Dalio warns that U.S. fiscal policy has reached a "tipping point," with a debt crisis potentially erupting within the next one to five years. He recommends reducing bond holdings and increasing allocations to gold and Bitcoin.
๐จ As yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries climb, the Jackson Hole symposium overshadows NVIDIA's earnings! Christopher Waller's remarks could determine the next move for risk assets.
๐จ The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.98%, the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.43%, and the S&P 500 Index up 0.43%. Banking stocks strengthened, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each rising more than 2%. Gold mining sโฆ
๐จ Japan PM Takaichi on X: Japan is seeing wage rises become embedded as a trend as it shifts away from deflation-prone economy to growth-oriented one.
08/21/2026 Market Daily Summary
US equities closed higher on Friday as risk appetite returned, led by financials and cyclical resources. The Dow rose +0.98%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained +0.43%, though all three benchmarks still ended the week lower.
๐พ Movers
- GS +3.80% to $1,040.01 โ financials led the Dow higher on soft-landing optimism
- MP +9.57%, SCCO +8.69%, CCJ +7.41% โ rare earths and copper surged as reflation trade revived
- TSLA +5.46% to $363.99 โ strength amid AI rotation; also saw top institutional call buying ($69M)
- WMT fell 9.2% Thursday on slowest US comps in 6+ years (~$83B erased); Jefferies cut PT
๐ด Laggards
- AAOI -13.82% โ biggest AI decliner; MRVL -5.73%
- Semis fell 5.4% on the week amid AI spending concerns
- PLTR (-$145M), NVDA (-$47M), INTC (-$41M) โ heavy put demand signals profit-taking in AI leaders
๐ Macro
- German Manufacturing PMI flash surged to 54.1 (forecast 52.1); Services missed at 48.5
- 30Y yield eased after hitting 19-year high 5.34% Tuesday
- Gold +5.5% weekly, silver +6.8%, bitcoin futures +22% above 70K
- Japan PM Takaichi: wage rises becoming embedded; Tokyo weighs 3.8% assumed rate for debt costs in FY2027/28
- Energy (XLE) saw outflows (-13); geopolitical risk not yet priced into oil
๐ Research Desk
- Goldman: hedge funds and mutual funds diverge on AI positioning but converge on financials exposure
- NVDA 2Q preview: Rubin platform seen driving upside; gross margin trajectory is the key metric
- AMD 2Q in line; Helios rack-scale systems ramp in 2H26; Buy at China Renaissance
- Deere +6.9% on Q3 beat, raises FY26 outlook; analysts split on FY27 cycle
- Micron plans $10B AI memory investment alongside $250B capacity expansion
โ ๏ธ Short-Seller Radar
- Muddy Waters intensified its Sportradar (SRAD) campaign, alleging suppression of 1xBet details in its short report
- Hunterbrook: Modine's anchor multi-billion-dollar customers are Google and Amazon
๐ What to Watch
- Monday: US flash Manufacturing and Services PMI (expected 54.3 and 53.8)
- Powell's Jackson Hole speech โ first key Fed signal, per UBS
- NVDA earnings: gross margin and Rubin platform updates in focus
- Reuters: NVDA in talks to acquire South Korea's Rebellions
- Israel conflict and Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries remain geopolitical overhangs
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