A Tesla is twice as likely to reach 250,000 miles as a Subaru “No engine, no oil changes, no timing chains, no fuel injectors, and far fewer moving parts overall” https://t.co/k8iJwbzrrp
"God Candles Are Loading"
Just got the call. Gladiator. From his parent's basement. He confirmed my suspicion. Bottom is in. Blake will have to unwind his MSTR short, and India is said to be sweating.
Charlie Munger on the origins of Chinese-Americans 🇺🇸 🇨🇳
“The Chinese first came in USA trying to build the Sierra, trans-continental railroad in the winter.”
“Our people were dying and it was just impossible, so they brought in 50,000 Chinese coolies, who were in those days practically slaves.”
“They took the coolies in the mountains and said - you build the railroads and they did it! The Americans couldn’t do it by themselves.”
“Fade in fade out 150 years later, due to immigration, these asians have rapidly become Doctors, Lawyers, Businessmen and succeeded mightily.”
“Every instrument that’s hard to play in symphony orchestra, is played by a Chinese face.”
- Charlie Munger. 2019
Fantastic report showing that starting in 2025 (link in comments), the institutions have been selling call options like there is no tomorrow.
This exercise to reduce the downside by selling off the upside will eventually lead to these same institutions being caught completely out of the market on the next real rip.
🚨 THE MEMORY CARTEL IS ABOUT TO FALL.
Ex-Samsung chip boss says heavy Chinese investment in the memory market could crush the 414% DDR5 price spike within a year.
Goldman calls it RAMageddon.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron control 70% of global DRAM and pushed prices from $6.84 to $27.20 in 3 months.
Now China is gearing up to flood the market.
Cheap memory = cheap AI compute = the cartel cracks.
THE REAL STORY of the Silvergate Bank “collapse” is finally starting to come out, due to the SEC lifting its “no-deny”/“no criticism” restriction on SEC settlements this week. @jaredkate, Silvergate’s then-COO, has started to talk👇 & more of Silvergate’s side of the story will come out, no doubt. As @nic_carter has reported, Silvergate didn’t actually collapse; rather, it was purposefully demolished as part of #OperationChokePoint2.0 — and it stands pretty much alone in banking history as a bank that paid out depositors amid a bank run without sticking the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund with losses. I’d already learned what happened from a different insider who was at the table back then: the insider witnessed the Fed ordering Silvergate to de facto liquidate by ceasing to service the crypto industry, the “voluntary” announcement of which started the bank run. The insider named names, and a senior Fed official later asked for that list of names (note: many of the people have since left the Fed or no longer in senior positions there). I can’t wait for the interviews of Silvergate executives who previously couldn’t talk but can now. I hope @MaxfieldOnBanks runs with this — he did a big analysis of the Silvergate story a few years ago and figured out that the mainstream narrative wasn’t correct. I look forward to hearing more from the execs, who successfully liquidated a bank under extreme bank run pressures. Are you ready to hear what they have to say???
BREAKING: FOX NEWS JUST REVEALED THE NEW US STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE BILL IS TARGETING 5% OF THE ENTIRE BTC SUPPLY
THAT'S OVER 1,000,000 BTC
BTC RESERVE WILL BE "THE NEW FORT KNOX"
GLOBAL BTC RACE IS ON 🚀
Gilles, je vais démonter ta prémisse de départ, parce que tout le reste de ton argument s'effondre avec elle.
Tu pars du principe qu'il faut une « sensibilité de gauche » pour ne pas laisser créver les gens de faim. C'est l'inverse total de ce que dit l'histoire économique des 50 dernières années.
Les chiffres bruts.
1990 : 2,3 milliards de personnes en pauvreté extrême. 38% de l'humanité.
2025 : 831 millions. Environ 10%.
1,5 milliard d'êtres humains sortis de la misère absolue en 35 ans. La plus grande réduction de souffrance humaine de toute l'histoire de l'espèce.
Qui a fait ça ?
Pas l'aide internationale. Pas les ONG. Pas les programmes de redistribution. Pas la « sensibilité de gauche ».
Le marché. L'ouverture commerciale. La Chine de Deng en 1978 qui abandonne le maoisme. L'Inde en 1991 qui libéralise. Le Vietnam, l'Indonésie, le Bangladesh qui s'ouvrent au capitalisme.
Les seuls endroits où l'extrême pauvreté a EXPLOSÉ sur la même période ? Le Vénézuela socialiste : de 27% de pauvres en 2008 à plus de 80% en 2018, avec une inflation de 130 000% et un Vénézuélien moyen qui a perdu 11 kilos par dénutrition. La Corée du Nord. Cuba. Le Zimbabwe de Mugabe.
La gauche ne nourrit pas les pauvres. Elle les fabrique.
Le capitalisme produit tellement de richesse que même ses « perdants » américains vivent mieux que la classe moyenne soviétique. Un pauvre US a un frigo, une voiture, un téléphone, l'air conditionné, internet. Un pauvre cubain attend du riz.
Ton argument selon lequel « le social aux USA est un désastre » repète une légende française. La réalité : le PIB par habitant américain est de 80 000$. Français : 45 000$. Un Mississippien — l'État US le plus pauvre — a un revenu médian supérieur au Français moyen.
La vérité que la gauche française refuse de regarder : dans un système libéral, il y a plus de richesse créée, plus largement distribuée, et beaucoup moins de pauvres. Partout. Sans exception. Sur toutes les périodes mesurées.
ÊTRE de gauche en 2026 face à ces données, ce n'est pas avoir de la « sensibilité ». C'est ignorer 35 ans de preuves accablantes. C'est préférer la posture morale au résultat.
La compassion sans résultats, ça s'appelle de la vanité.
The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.
Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).
Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.
Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.
As a result,
1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.
2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"
3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.
4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."
I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.
Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".
Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.
Bitcoiners, I learned something this week.
We’ve been doing it wrong.
For 15 years we’ve tried to onboard people with math, energy, cryptography, monetary theory.
None of it works on a normie. Their eyes glaze. They tune out. They think we’re a cult.
But explain the problem they already feel - that they’re running faster and standing still, that their work is being quietly taxed, that they shouldn’t have to become an investor just to keep what they earned - and they lean in.
Don’t sell them the answer. Name the problem.
They already know something’s wrong. Be the one who finally puts it into words.
.@BTS_twt ARMY descends on Stanford Stadium to purchase exclusive merchandise ahead of sold-out concerts that are expected to draw thousands to Palo Alto. https://t.co/0pw64a71LL