The end of an era.
It does, in fact, seem like my 1.5 year streak is coming to an end. It was a good run, but just like anyone else, eventually I will be wrong.
Over the past 500 days, I managed to capture every single major swing movement, playing the bear market perfectly and managing to capture the local bottom at 62K as well.
However, I think it’s important to acknowledge mistakes and reflect on things. It was definitely foolish not to realize any gains from the profits made on the way up. In doing so, the market erased nearly all of them.
Of course, I am in a much better position than most. I didn’t lose any money on the drop, but I did give back uPNL, which in my eyes is basically the same as having lost it, despite not actually losing anything like many others most likely have.
The market does have a funny way of humbling everyone, and given the context, let me be a prime example of that. When you’re at the top of your game, winning consistently and predicting every major movement, the devil comes for you.
The only lesson learned here is to always make sure to take profits off the table. That was indeed my mistake. I was right in capturing the movement upwards, but wrong in derisking and wrong to remain fixated on one particular price region. As a swing trader and investor, the biggest mistakes I have usually made have been taking profits too soon. Hence, I didn’t want to make that mistake this time around. But again, sometimes taking profits too soon might be the sensible thing to do.
I am still, of course, bullish on the HTF. Anyone who understands how markets operate will understand why it’s foolish to be bearish on an asset that has proven itself for 20 years. I am still in my swing positions and spot positions. I just thought it was necessary to create this post.
If BTC happens to test 62.6K in the coming weeks, my current 75–76K continuation long gets stopped out. That will be the true invalidation of "I was wrong" with my first major swing being stopped.
Now, the important distinction here is that if we test 62.6K, I will still be holding my initial swing long entry, the one I have been holding for months. The invalidation on this is 31K, as I’m utilizing cross margin.
I will still be holding all of my spot as well.
So, the key takeaway regarding my positioning:
Long from 75–76K > Inval. 62K
Long from 62.6K > Inval. 31K
Spot from 65.9K > Inval. none
BTC has now retraced more than half of the move upwards. Only time will tell if we are able to start forming a base soon.
A humbling experience, which is exactly what I have been after for a while now. It does get boring being right all the time. There is no challenge when that is the case. It might be painful to round trip nice gains, but it was necessary in the context of humbling my mindset. It’s time to get back to the drawing board.
Always be humble, because what God gives, He can also take. And most importantly, take profits. Nobody goes broke doing so.
One thing I can promise you is that I never ask people to judge me on my winners, I ask them to judge me on my losers because I have so few.
ONCE THE US AND IRAN REACH A PEACE DEAL...
BITCOIN WILL 2X 🚀
ETHEREUM WILL 10X 🚀
ALTCOINS WILL 100X 🚀
GLOBAL MARKETS WILL BOOM 🚀
THE BOUNCE WILL BE GLORIOUS.