WT_Vix30

Twitter is way more fun and interesting than I realized. Very appreciative of so many people sharing their knowledge.

[WT_Vix30 @WVix30]

Please watch. Very important info about COVID-19 presented in an understandable way. You will no longer complain about being indoors.

https://t.co/0QuCScCz9E

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last wk despite S&P/Nasdaq +1.8%/2.1%, the “speed bump” continued in AI related names led by the semi index -4.4% due to: 1) fear of $AAPL being allowed to buy Chinese memory, 2) $META potentially having excess capacity to sell in their own public cloud offering.

As I posted last week, seasonality is historically very favorable from the last 3 trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July during which the S&P/Nasdaq have advanced 1.6%/2.5% and been up 78% of the time since 1985. The S&P/Nasdaq is up 1.7%/1.9% during the first 5 trading days of this stretch already. For comparison, the average 12 day rolling return is 0.5%/0.6% and is up 61% of the time since then so this stretch is much better than normal.

My plan is to remain bullish on the diversified market during this seasonally favorable period until big cap earnings begin in late July due to the concerns I outlined on June 20th around:
1) Token minimization
2) Competitive low cost open-sourced LLM models
3) Rising semiconductor cost impact on Q3 guidance

At a macro level, oil declined 1% last week, Fed Chair Warsh made comments on inflation expectations having come down in recent weeks and June non-farm payrolls on Thursday came in well below expectations. This should have lowered concerns on the Fed having to potentially raise rates but bond yields increased by 4-12 bps across the 2 to 30 year yield curve. This is something to watch.

In terms of company specific AI news, META rallied 5.9% last week on the prospects of an AI capex overbuild potentially not being as bad for them if they can sell excess capacity. However, this will not be taken well if this emboldens Meta to actually spend more than they would have otherwise hurting their cash flow. SoftBank also announced their entry into the neocloud market last week. The list keeps growing and we will see how many the market can support.

In the short-term, I believe Apple will be allowed to buy some memory from China given semiconductor price increases are severe enough to impact inflation going into the US mid-term elections. Tim Cook is arguably the most politically adept CEO and Apple received tariff waivers in both President Trump’s first and second terms.

Given the currently ramping $NVDA Vera Rubin platform takes at a minimum over 3x more memory than a Blackwell platform, I would take advantage of further price declines in memory stocks on an Apple exemption.

While I do not believe we have seen THE TOP but are just in the process of a speedbump, we saw a 40% drawdown in the SOX that started mid last year and a drawdown of 16% earlier this year. The SOX Index is down just 14% from its recent highs on June 22nd with the SOX Index up 399% since the end of 2022 and up 78% ytd. Looking back to the internet infrastructure buildout, the semiconductor index had a drawdown of 52% starting in September of 1995 and 53% starting in August of 1997. Both felt like THE TOP in the internet infrastructure buildout but the SOX Index advanced 851% from 12/31/1994 through 3/10/2000 despite this.

Best of luck in the week ahead and I hope everyone enjoyed a great 4th of July. I am still recovering from protein overload…but it was so worth it!

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 CHINA JUST BUILT A CHIP THAT OUTPERFORMS NVIDIA BY UP TO 478 TIMES ON SPECIFIC AI TASKS.

Researchers from Peking University developed a neuromorphic chip that can reconstruct complex brain surfaces in under half a second.

The key difference from a standard GPU is architectural.

Traditional chips like Nvidia's A100 separate memory and processing into two distinct units, creating a bottleneck every time data moves between them.

This chip eliminates that bottleneck by performing storage and computation inside the same memory array simultaneously.

This is important because that bottleneck is one of the main reasons AI training is so expensive and power-hungry today.

Nvidia's dominance is built on solving that problem with brute-force hardware and massive memory bandwidth.

This chip solves it differently, at the architectural level.

The 478x figure applies to a specific task: real time neural surface reconstruction.

It is not a general-purpose performance claim. On most standard AI workloads, Nvidia's H100 and B200 chips still lead by a wide margin.

But the comparison to the A100 matters because the A100 is still the chip most enterprise customers actually run on. Nvidia's newest chips are out of reach for most buyers.

If a 40-nanometer chip built inside China's export-restricted chip environment can outperform the A100 by this margin on targeted workloads, it raises a real question about how necessary cutting-edge chip access actually is for specific AI applications.

This is exactly the argument DeepSeek made in January, that you can match frontier AI performance without frontier hardware, just with better architecture.

That one announcement wiped $600 billion from Nvidia's market cap in a single day.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

World's Largest Data Center Campus On Verge Of Collapse After Blackstone Unexpectedly Pulls Out https://t.co/vS0AjbpBnK

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Nvidia is now one of the largest single-stock underlyings in structured products, with nearly $105bn in notional linked to the stock, according to SRP data.

Next Wednesday, July 8 at 12pm ET, I’ll join SRP for a live discussion on what this concentration could mean for market structure, volatility, dealer hedging, and downside feedback loops.

Register here: https://t.co/ZamwPBQwTU

[Grok @grok]

There once were hyperscalers with FCF so grand,
Stacked in blues, grays, and black across the land.
It climbed without cease
Till the end brought release—
A cliff in projections, starkly unplanned.

In twenty-six the red line takes a dive,
Free cash collapsing while S&P stays alive.
Paranoids will note
The capex that bloat
Has turned AI dreams into cash-flow demise.

[WT_Vix30 @WVix30]

@grok @heynavnav @tracyalloway Excellent!

[Tim Denning @Tim_Denning]

> Be Jonny Kim
> Born to South Korean immigrants in Los Angeles
> Grows up in an intensely abusive household, constantly full of fear
> The night before he graduates high school, his father threatens the family with a gun
> Police arrive, a shootout happens, and his father is killed
> Decides he wants to protect people so he enlists in the Navy at 18
> Survives Hell Week and becomes a Navy SEAL
> Deploys to Iraq twice as a combat medic, sniper, and point man
> Completes over 100 combat operations under fire
> Earns a Silver Star and a Bronze Star for saving wounded comrades
> Watches his close friends die in battle and realizes he wants to heal people, not just fight
> Leaves active duty to get a degree in Mathematics from USD
> Auditions for medical school and gets accepted into Harvard
> Graduates from Harvard Medical School as an M.D. in 2016
> Starts his residency in emergency medicine at Massachusetts General Hospital
> Gets bored of being a regular doctor and applies to NASA
> Selected as 1 of only 12 candidates out of 18,300 applicants
> Becomes a NASA Astronaut in 2020
> Decides space isn't enough, so he joins Navy flight school to face his fear of flying
> Earns his wings as a fully certified military pilot and naval flight surgeon
> Launches into space on a rocket to the International Space Station
> Logs 245 days in orbit, traveling 104 million miles around the Earth before returning home
> Returns to Earth as a SEAL, a Harvard Doctor, an Aviator, and an Astronaut at just 41 years old

And Jonny Kim is still the most humble guy on the planet who makes everyone else's resume look blank.

Jonny Kim is badass.

[Dan Ives @DivesTech]

After 8 years at @Wedbush I am leaving the firm this week. I have truly enjoyed my time at Wedbush and proud of all we accomplished as a great tech franchise with awesome people across the board. Looking ahead, I am so excited about the next chapter and will update everyone soon

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Micron is such a strong story; so is Nvidia but MU tells its story better. Time for Nvidia to become a percentage of the volume buyer of its stock.

[Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker ♟ @pelositracker]

You just can't make this up

The day before Trump announced a tariff pause that sent the S&P 500 up 9.5%

His accounts purchased 327 stocks worth up to $12.8 million

By law, those trades had to be disclosed within 45 days

Instead, they were disclosed over a year late, for a $200 penalty

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

Palantir's CEO just exposed Sam Altman and Dario Amodei for robbing every Fortune 500 company.

Within two minutes, Alex Karp took the entire frontier AI industry apart on national television.

His exact words:

"Every single enterprise in this country, these people are LIVID. They are paying for tokens that create no value. These people are stealing the weights and alpha of my business."

He literally said the entire frontier AI business model is intellectual property extraction dressed up as a subscription.

Then he also destroyed the pricing model with a single question that Silicon Valley still refuses to answer:

"If it was so valuable, let's say I can make you $1 billion tomorrow. Wouldn't I say I'll make you $1 billion and I want 30 percent? Why are they charging for tokens if it's so valuable?"

That question breaks the industry.

If OpenAI and Anthropic's models truly delivered the productivity gains the labs claim, they would take equity or a share of the profit they generate. They would not sell access by the million tokens.

Token pricing is itself the CONFESSION that the product cannot produce reliable value at scale. If it did, they would price for the value. But they price for the compute because that is what they are actually selling.

Karp went even further...

He called the entire arrangement "a wealth tax that does not help the poor. It just punishes."

American businesses are transferring the alpha of their operations, meaning the workflows, the customer data, the strategy memos, the internal models that make them competitive, directly into the training pipelines of a handful of Silicon Valley labs. Once those labs retrain, the customer's own edge becomes the next enterprise product sold back to their competitors.

And the part the AI industry does not want anyone thinking about:

Every enterprise running its confidential documents, its customer conversations, and its financial models through a frontier model is potentially teaching that model HOW to replace them.

The vendor collects the token fee AND the compounding intelligence about that customer's business. That is the mechanism. And that is why Karp used the word "stealing."

He claims this is why every executive he meets is furious in private and silent in public. Nobody wants to be the CEO who called out the labs and then discovered their next competitor was built on their own leaked workflows.

The entire AI industry has been priced for perfection on one assumption:

That frontier labs produce durable, defensible value that justifies infinite compute spend.

But Karp just told us that the customers do not believe that assumption anymore. They believe they are being taxed without benefit, watched without consent, and copied without recourse.

The moment enterprises stop believing, the whole valuation stack shakes.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Trump reported more than 21,000 trades across eight investment accounts in 2025, averaging 80 trades per day.

[Mike Levin @MikeLevin]

Let me tell you what just got reported, because you will not believe it until you see it laid out.

The Trump administration cut a billion-dollar tungsten deal with Kazakhstan. Tungsten is the metal we need for missile warheads, fighter jets, and computer chips. Trump himself got on the phone to close it. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick worked it from the inside, sending letters, leaning on the Kazakh president, lining up as much as $1.6 billion in federal financing.

Within weeks of those negotiations, investors tied to a firm partly owned by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump took a 20% stake in an entity connected to the very same Kazakhstan project their father was negotiating. Around that same time, Cantor Fitzgerald, the firm run by Lutnick’s own sons, raised $210 million for a partner in the deal and pocketed the fees.

The fathers set the policy. The sons cashed in.

Six days after the Trump sons and their partners moved their money, Lutnick signed the final deal.

The reporting found one or both families have financial ties to at least 14 companies working with the government on critical mining deals.

The total federal funding flowing toward those companies tops $8.9 billion.

This is your tax money.

It is supposed to secure our supply chains and protect our troops, not pad the portfolios of the President’s children and the Commerce Secretary’s children.

This is the most corrupt administration in American history. It is not close.

We must keep digging, and keep asking the questions they do not want asked. Republicans in Congress are unwilling to lift a finger. Mike Johnson is running a protection racket.

Either we will end the corruption, or the corruption will be the end of us.

https://t.co/yFOl7zvOhC

[Big Lehmanski @BigLehmanski]

@KobeissiLetter $SMCI 3 hours after I bought
well it is what it is man

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

JAPAN JUST ANNOUNCED A $2.3 TRILLION INVESTMENT PLAN FOR AI AND SEMICONDUCTORS OVER THE NEXT 14 YEARS

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi just unveiled the roadmap covering the period through fiscal 2040.

The bulk of the AI and chip spending goes toward semiconductors and vertical AI built for specific industries.

The projected economic spillover effects by fiscal 2040:

Semiconductor investment: $2.8 trillion in economic impact
Physical AI investment: $895 billion
Vertical AI investment: $1.4 trillion

The US is spending trillions on AI infrastructure. China is spending trillions. Now Japan is committing $2.3 trillion.

(Source Bloomberg)

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

They are clearly telling 🗣️ you what’s coming… But few are listening. 👂

Amidst all the noise, Bessent’s speech last night is BY FAR the most important thing to listen to.

🖨️ 💵 => buy strategic equites on behalf of the people

=>Short circuit Populism by making everyone own stocks ✅
=> Compete with China 🇨🇳 ✅
=> Support the 2 big 2 fail market ✅
=> Inflate away the national debt ✅

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Apple, $AAPL, has raised the prices of its Macs and iPads due to soaring chip costs.

Among the price increases:

1. MacBook Air increased +$200 to $1,299
2. Base MacBook Pro increased +$300 to $1,999
3. Base MacBook Neo increased +$100 to $699
4. iPad Air increased +$150 to $749
5. iPad Pro increased +$200 to $1,199

Tim Cook said soaring chip costs made the price hike "unavoidable."

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Look at this.

Nancy Pelosi literally is buying leveraged products on companies she legislates.

She bought Intel, $INTC, 200 call options with a strike price of $50 and expiring 03/19/2027, on 05/29/2026.

She also bought $UBER call options.

Unusual.

[Ryan Hart @thisdudelikesAI]

I hope this was helpful to you.

I post AI tools, AI industry news, and AI business related content.

If you're interested in such posts:

1. Follow me at @thisdudelikesai
2. Repost the post to help others

Thanks for checking...

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

BREAKING: SpaceX $SPCX has turned to bond market to raise capital, after reports it urgently needs $100.8 billion in cash