Joey Chai

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

TRUMP ON IRAN:

U.S. WILL KEEP CONTROL OF MONEY

WHEN THEY BEHAVE WE'LL LET THEM HAVE THEIR MONEY

NOT COMFORTABLE WITH RUSSIA OR CHINA TAKING IRAN'S STOCKPILE OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM

NOT TALKING ABOUT EASING SANCTIONS ON IRAN

[株式会社カラー @khara_inc]

『エヴァ』30周年を記念するフェス「EVANGELION:30+； 30th ANNIVERSARY OF EVANGELION」最終日である2月23日(月・祝)Final Programにて『エヴァンゲリオン』完全新作シリーズの制作に関する初報を発表致しました。

シリーズ構成・脚本
ヨコオタロウ

監督
鶴巻和哉、谷田部透湖

音楽
岡部啓一

制作
スタジオカラー × CloverWorks

https://t.co/m5JGgdIBoO

[Dan Nystedt @dnystedt]

TrendForce: Mainstream DRAM contract prices in the 1st quarter are forecast to rise 55%-60% over the 4th quarter.
-Q1 NAND Flash prices are seen rising 33%-38%
-Q1 Server DRAM prices are seen up over 60% as big cloud firms scramble for long term supply agreements.
-Supply of eSSDs for servers becoming tight, driving up prices. (enterprise Solid State Drives for data storage. SSDs use NAND Flash)
-Q1 Prices of SSDs for consumer goods are seen up over 40%
-Smartphone makers are in the weak season, but are still scrambling for DRAM (LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X), which expected to remain under supplied.
-DDR5 DRAM capacity remains constrained, leading to continued price increases. $MU $HXSCL $SSNLF #SKhynix #Samsung #Semiconductors #DRAM https://t.co/2lX17KwStR

[Dan Nystedt @dnystedt]

Price hikes on a range of materials used in semiconductor production, including ABF and BT substrates, T-Glass, more, have boosted Taiwan makers amid tight supplies and capacity, media report, with Unimicron, Kinsus Interconnect and Nanya PCB all reporting monthly and annual revenue growth in October. Kinsus +39.8% and Nanya PCB +41.7% reported the strongest year-on-year revenue growth. Substrate prices are set to move higher as the latest AI chips require substrate size and layer count increases. $NVDA $AMD $AVGO #semiconductors https://t.co/7mjqOGsYCf

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Trump on whether he could reconcile with Musk: I guess I could.

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

According to a report by DigiTimes, TSMC will continue manufacturing chips for Google Pixel devices through Pixel 14, lasting for the next 3 to 5 years.

https://t.co/2ASSZ1hfLZ

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Report: NVIDIA's 1.6T Optical Module Delayed to 1Q26

Previously, international cloud service providers (CSPs) were reported to have slowed down their data center construction pace, raising market concerns that this could impact the optical communication module sector.

However, according to the compound semiconductor supply chain, overall demand for optical communications has not seen a significant slowdown. While tariff policies remain a variable, current short-term demand appears stable and AI momentum remains strong, suggesting continued growth in optical module demand.

Still, one particular issue has drawn special attention. Sources in the supply chain revealed that the 1.6T optical module—strongly backed by AI chip leader NVIDIA—shows signs of a slight delay, with progress now expected to shift toward the first quarter of 2026.

Supply chain sources stated that the optical transceiver module market continues to grow. Despite tariff impacts, there are no apparent short-term obstacles within the supply chain, and supply and demand are expected to remain stable over the next three months. However, actual shipment volumes for 2025 will still depend on market changes and customer progress.

Looking at the overall AI data center industry chain, development has moved from high-performance computing chips (HPC) and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) toward "high-speed transmission," driving increased demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules.

Though the trend is clearly upward, some supply chain players, such as Optomind (環宇), pointed out structural and technical differences within 800G product shipments. Some vendors implement an "200G × 4" architecture to realize 800G, instead of "100G × 8", which affects PD (photodiode) selection and supply chain readiness.

Due to differing infrastructure conversion speeds and strategies among CSPs, industry players noted that market demand forecasting is difficult, and 800G shipment volumes alone cannot be used to estimate growth rates.

Regarding the progress of 1.6T optical modules, compound semiconductor players indicated that mass shipments may be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2025 or even the first quarter of 2026.

As for the key reasons behind the 1.6T delay, suppliers like Optomind analyzed that the main issue is the immaturity of the overall supply chain. In particular, the need to use Flip Chip technology poses a challenge, as optical communication companies are relatively unfamiliar with it. Furthermore, components such as DSPs and TIAs have yet to enter scalable mass production.

Among U.S. tech giants, NVIDIA is currently the most aggressive in advancing 1.6T deployment, while Google is also involved but with relatively lower enthusiasm.

Taiwan-based compound semiconductor firms—including WIN Semiconductors, Visual Photonics Epitaxy (VPEC), Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Company (AWSC), Optomind, Ardentec, and IntelliEPI—are optimistic about the future development trend of optical communication modules for data centers. Compared to terminal markets like smartphones, the growth momentum driven by AI is relatively more certain.

In a recent earnings call, Optomind projected better performance in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, and further improvements in 2026. Growth of its self-branded optoelectronic component products (KGD) is still subject to product lifecycle limitations and many supply chain variables, making growth rates hard to predict.

On its RF foundry business, Optomind plans to terminate production of low-ASP (average selling price) products by the end of 2025, and complete delivery of remaining demand to existing customers in the first half of 2026. This transition period will last around five quarters. Although this will impact customers to some extent, the company has already begun adjustments and communication.

In the future, its RF business strategy will focus on product portfolio optimization and profitability improvement, shifting toward high-ASP, higher-margin, advanced process products. While overall revenue is expected to remain at current levels, gross margins are forecast to improve significantly, boosting profit contributions. At the same time, capacity freed up from the transition will be redirected to support higher-growth business areas.

For most III-V semiconductor companies, while the smartphone RF and PA component sectors offer high volumes, major clients like Apple impose strict cost controls on their supply chains, putting pressure on supplier profitability.

Regarding the U.S. tariff issue, most companies have adopted a "wait and see" approach. They admit the current situation is irrational and highly uncertain. Although there have been recent negotiations between China and the U.S., the situation may change at any time.

For example, Optomind stated that its global strategy is gradually delivering results. If operations are impacted by geopolitical factors, the company will initiate contingency plans to reduce potential risks and reexamine the geographic configuration of its production chain to more effectively respond to external changes while maintaining supply and cost advantages.

Overall trends in the tech industry—reflected by major compound semiconductor foundries such as WIN Semiconductors and epitaxial wafer leader VPEC—indicate that AI will drive more infrastructure-related revenue growth. This offers more sustainable mid- to long-term development potential. Next-generation optical communication technologies involving "photoelectric conversion" are expected to shine, becoming a key pillar of the AI revolution following computing and storage.

As for the operations and mass production progress of individual firms, Taiwanese compound semiconductor companies traditionally refrain from making public comments.

https://t.co/RKrXDKyFjY

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$META ON CAPEX: Mgmt says the 2025 CapEx hike is an acceleration, not a one-off. Too early to set a 2026 baseline, but current spend could become the new normal depending on infra needs. “We’re flexing build strategy to bring capacity online faster in ’25 and ’26.”

[Joey Chai @wyamybro]

"Plain and simple, the time for talk is over. "

[Joey Chai @wyamybro]

@Jukanlosreve Trust, INTC still gonna disappoint even with babysitting

[Joey Chai @wyamybro]

@dylan522p good plot for a 700 episodes long anime

[Joey Chai @wyamybro]

@Bob914006715694 @necessity_z @Jukanlosreve Check this bro
https://t.co/Zsb1wSh5zW

[Joey Chai @wyamybro]

@Jukanlosreve 😧😧😧

[Joey Chai @wyamybro]

@Jukanlosreve 🫡🫡🫡

[Joey Chai @wyamybro]

@Etched Assuming $120 mill secured for tapeout & POC, so the chip is coming out 25Q4 if not sooner?

[ippawards @ippawards]

Create amazing. II http://t.co/ErWleYjkTO #ippawards #createamazing