Crypto isn't about getting rich quick on the next dog coin.
It's about building financial infrastructure that works when banks don't, when borders close, when permission gets denied.
The tech that matters is the tech that can't be shut down.
Everything else is noise. ⚡
So to those people calling $RUNE ThorChain "the next Luna..."
There's a huge difference between a badly-designed scam and a brilliant protocol that made a mistake.
These are not the same.
Hi there,
Just wanted to share my personal thoughts regarding the recent fears around @THORChain. There are definitely some risky mechanics built into THORFi (both Loans and Savers/synths) that requires RUNE to outperform other paired assets for the system to thrive, but I believe there has been a good level of over-reaction in the past days and we will be fine.
The issue with THORFi Loans
The issue is that, when someone opens a loan against e.g. BTC, the protocol under the hood swaps those BTC for RUNE (which are burnt) but records the liability in BTC based on the quantity of collateral provided at entry. Then, if a borrower wants to repay his loan to recover his collateral, the protocol will mint RUNE to buy it back. If RUNE price went down vs. BTC, this results in a net supply inflation. Importantly, the protocol can only mint RUNE as long as the total supply is less than 500m. The RUNE are then swapped for BTC, reducing price and liquidity.
Loans repayment have a negative impact on liquidity in the Base Layer pools (and RUNE price) because the collateral being returned is effectively taken from the corresponding pool and replaced by RUNE, though the relationship is not 1:1 thanks to streaming swaps and arbitrageurs (i.e. $1 of collateral returned results in less than $1 of liquidity taken from the pool). Loans repayments also further penalizes returns for regular dual LPs as it increases the proportion of synths in the pools vs. actual native assets and transfers even more of the IL risk from Savers/synths to regular DLPs.
Thankfully, the @RujiraNetwork App Layer will allow us to mitigate - and eventually remove - those risks from the Base Layer.
Key considerations
1) The core of the system works very well and is printing money (~$100m of Gross System Income based on current data annualized); nobody else has a tech enabling native cross-chain DeFi like THORChain. The issue is purely a design one for the Base Layer DeFi apps (Loans and Savers/synths) which we will solve with the App Layer.
2) A full-blown “death spiral like on Terra” is not possible because there is a hard cap at 500m RUNE, no more can be minted above that. The risk past that point is transferred to the borrowers who would take a loss on their collateral. If all loans were closed today, we would go from a total supply of ~421m to ~448m RUNE, so a ~6.5% increase, bad but not dramatic. Nine Realms has a great dashboard to monitor that in real time (https://t.co/ieF6JkXIfF).
3) Most of the large loans are owned by a few OGs owning a lot of RUNE. Those users have a significant vested interest in NOT repaying their loans at times where it could put the system at risk. As long as there are no major loan repayments happening all at once, the risk is contained.
https://t.co/wIJnZseIYK
4) The App Layer will be able to provide tools to mitigate - and eventually remove - those Base Layer risks:
- First, we will provide some form of delta-neural (or at least delta partially hedged) LP strategies for the Base Layer. We need to put some more thoughts into the best way of doing this, but it’s high on the list once we will have the required pieces in place.
- Then provide a UI for Savers allowing them to easily transfer their positions with the net result for the protocol being no change in Base Layer liquidity, but a transfer from synthetics to actual native assets in the pools.
- This would result in deeper "real" liquidity in the Base Layer pools, which in turn will allow us to offer the options for lenders to migrate their positions to regular CDP loans on the App Layer with a lesser impact. This would still result in a reduction of native liquidity on the Base Layer, but because of the previous step, actual native liquidity will be deeper and impact on liquidity won't be as bad, especially because once Savers are gone, regular DLPs won't be taking disproportional IL loss when RUNE underperform, which should attract more LPs.
- We are working on some analytics to provide more granular information to DLPs, notably showing the impact of synths loss on returns. This could be helpful if we want to phase the Savers’ transition to App Layer products, we could offer more capacity during periods when synths losses are lower (i.e. RUNE outperforming BTC and ETH).
5) The Loans repayment risk could be further mitigated by (just my personal views):
- Stopping any additional Savers deposit forever.
- Redirecting a share of TC System Income to buy-back some collateral at current market price (or maybe at a slight discount to account for a form of interest), extinguish a corresponding amount of debt, and then add the acquired collateral to POL in a DLP. Maybe this comes with an increase in liquidity fee to mitigate the impact on NOs and DLPs returns. This could be a one-way opt-in by borrowers if too controversial to implement otherwise.
- Only allowing loan repayments if the impact doesn't result in a net mint (i.e. if current RUNE price relative to the collateral is higher than RUNE price at the time the loan was opened). This could be a one-way opt-in by borrowers if too controversial to implement otherwise.
Shoutout to the @ninerealms_cap team that is doing a terrific job as safeguarding the protocol 🙏
Super pumped by what is coming next for THORChain and the Rujira App Layer, 2025 is gonna be great 🔥
$RUNE: 2b market cap
$UNI: 10b market cap
now look at the DEX volume.
Does it look fair to you?
Do you understand what a smart investor does in cases like this?
I'm not even mentioning the fact that RUNE has 100x better tokenomics, infra flexibility and an app-layer ecosystem coming in Q1.
I KNOW $RUNE place is the top 5 of the entire crypto.
That's why I will be Thorchain's Michael Saylor.
📷Credits: @dalweb_donfun
1) I’m excited to share my journey as a solo developer building my first full-stack blockchain app!
The project is an experiment in bringing the concept of hybrid DeFi to #Base. Let me walk you through how it works.