Trader

Psychology isn’t part of Trading, it is Trading. At the start of my coaching career, which followed a 25 year trading career. I was called in by the head of HR of a major global investment bank, who said they’d l recognised that addressing the psychological challenges their traders face is a major issue, and possibly the biggest drawback to better performance across the business. They told me how they’d recognised how so many trading related issues were psychological, and how in their estimation, the cost to them was in the 10’s of millions per year. All good so far, I thought, they get it, this will be potentially a serious piece of work. They’ve had around 1000 traders worldwide. - I was quite excited about this. Then they asked me, could I run a half day workshop on Fixing the Psychological challenges of Trading. I chocked!!! - Is that your proposed solution I said, a half day workshop? ‘Yes’ they answered! - I didn’t do the half day workshop. Maybe someone else did. The psychological challenges of trading is where the game is won. Of course there other aspects. You need a cohesive Risk Process that includes your method, an approach for taking and making trades and the risks associated with them. You need data, news, information, and a well developed understanding of the these and the challenges of the markets. These naturally take time to acquire. But all these things are the baseline for trading, the foundational aspects, the 101 of trading. It’s winning the psychological battles where success comes from. Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face, as Mike Tyson famously said. - In trading, you get psychologically punched in the face, the gut and everywhere else on a daily basis. The impact disturbs your mindset, your ability to carry out and transact your risk process, your ability to stay focused on the task, let alone destroying your ability to make sense of the vast amounts of information and noise coming at you. The ones who win, don’t overcome the Psychological Challenges, these issues don’t go away, we remain human, but they have learned how to navigate them better, not perfectly, just much better than everyone else. When I look back on my coaching, I’ve worked with incredible traders, some at major hedge funds, top investment banks and energy trading firms, and many private and retail traders. They’ve taken a serious approach to the psychological challenges of trading. They’ve gone beyond reading about them in a book, or understanding them from a website. They’ve realised that this is ‘ground zero’ for them. The psychological challenges of trading, shape your trading in so many ways: - How you prepare, - How you engage with markets, - How you observe and sense data and news, - How you are triggered into responding to a threat or seeking to capture a potential opportunity, - How you make sense of all the information, and how you form views and narratives. - How build your playback, - How you structure a trade, - How you size and plan a trade. - Then crucially, and as the pressure rises: how you act. - How you deal with the what-ifs that enter your mind as you get ready to pull the trigger. - How risk affects your mental state once a trade is on. - How you cope with the Fear and Anxiety induced by the act. - How you stay the course and don’t panic or get over excited - How you manage the risk, - How you decide to de-escalate and exit. - How you deal with the aftermath, the should haves and could haves and the weird desire for revenge. - How you let go and move-on, accepting what happened and not turning on yourself and become the source of your own future problems. - In other words, how you let go and move on. - How you get back to balance, when the markets thrown you off, so that you can go again. Getting serious about the Psychological aspects of trading, is getting serious about Trading.

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xactivetrader retweeted

Tom Dante

@Trader_Dante

over 3 years ago

My Edge A Thread

170

Trader @xactivetrader

over 1 year ago

@AnthonyCrudele Sorry for your loss

Trader @xactivetrader

over 1 year ago

Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary

155

Trader @xactivetrader

over 1 year ago

@paxtrader777 It's tough to follow the overextended rally 😴

163

Trader @xactivetrader

over 1 year ago

@SuperDuperInvst None

xactivetrader retweeted

Nik “The Carny” Lentz

@NikLentz

almost 2 years ago

Market Insights with The Carny – Week Ahead Preview Nov 3-8, 2024 (Please like and RT if you find this useful, thank you!) As we approach a pivotal week featuring both the Federal Reserve meeting and the presidential election on Tuesday, market dynamics are poised for significant shifts. Friday's market behavior was particularly telling: despite a weak jobs report indicating only a 12,000 increase in non-farm payrolls—well below the expected 106,000—initial reactions saw bonds rally, the dollar weaken, and short-term interest rate futures (SOFR whites-greens) rise. However, these movements reversed sharply after the equity markets opened, with bonds and SOFR futures declining and the dollar recovering. It suggests investors may be recalibrating their strategies with the election outcome in mind. While speculating on election results and how the FED might respond to different presidential picks is often considered uncouth in the economic world… I am not an economist. The Federal Reserve is, and always will be, a political machine. Like any machine, it has a purpose, and when certain levers are pulled, they trigger reactions. It’s no secret where I stand politically, but the obvious remains: Trump is a much larger thorn in the FED's side than Kamala. Anyone who traded through the Trump years remembers the power of the dreaded "Trump Tweet." Fortunes were lost in 280 characters or less, often in the middle of the night, because Xi frustrated Trump. He tried to combat nuclear threats with nicknames, used social media as a warning tool after missile strikes, and took many actions that led people to question the wisdom of giving someone with such influence the ability to broadcast every thought impulse instantly. The FED—and Powell himself—often found themselves the target of those tirades. So, how will the FED and the broader asset landscape react in each scenario? Let's start with the betting favorite, Trump. If Trump wins, the general expectation is that the long end gets hit hard. Tariffs likely resurface, adding inflation pressures, while tax cuts boost business output—great for the economy but stoking inflation. The dollar stays range bound, gold surges, bonds sell off, oil crashes as we "drill baby drill," and stocks (along with Santa) go straight to the moon! While I disagree with most of these outcomes over a larger timeframe, they’re likely the initial reactions post-election confirmation. The FED has lost credibility with the recent 50 bips cut—widely seen as politically motivated—and a Trump victory would likely push them into a hawkish stance, not out of inflation concerns but under the guise of managing inflation. In reality, this shift would stem from their unease with Trump and a belief that his policies could harm the FED's long-term stability. The move would be positive for bonds and the dollar, negative for stocks, and would make gold less appealing. When you combine these dynamics, you’d likely see bonds lower and stocks up in the short term. But as markets adjust to the idea of Trump in office again, the FED could assert control, reversing those trends. Given the shifting landscape, these would be tricky trades, and anyone telling you otherwise is either clueless or trying to sell you something. This game isn’t easy. We’d fade an extended move down in the 5- and 10-year and take profits as stocks rally. We’d also cover our gold position in the all-weather portfolio and look to short any significant rallies in oil. Additionally, we’d tighten up leverage, as Trump’s unique style and highly public negotiation tactics create an unpredictability that we wouldn’t see with Kamala. Kamala wins… Is there a way to short Polymarket? Jokes aside, Kamala is about as empty a suit as they come. We’d see the same messaging flow from Obama to Biden to Harris. After the initial shock and panic around proposals like taxing unrealized gains (never going to happen) and potential tax hikes, things would likely settle into a familiar status quo. But the immediate reaction in asset prices would be intense: expect a sharp stock selloff, a crypto crash, and high volatility across the board. With the market leaning toward a Trump win, a Harris victory could spark some violent reactions. Long term, it wouldn’t necessarily be bearish for stocks. Bonds would likely remain heavy due to supply concerns and the absence of economic momentum from tax cuts, potentially worsening as the economy slows and the “helicopters” start raining mana from heaven again. The FED’s Role: With Harris in office, the FED would likely become even more data-dependent, maintaining a cautious stance while quietly supporting the new administration. We might see a few “supportive” rate cuts to keep things steady—a subtle nod of thanks for the Trump reprieve. This setup would allow for a smoother policy path, aligning more closely with the administration’s objectives. What’s the play if Kamala wins? Buy dips in stocks, sell bond rallies, and trade oil within its range. Gold looks just okay, while crypto would likely crash and recover to a 40-55k range. It’s not as thrilling as a Trump win, but asset stability in the longer term might actually improve under Harris. Fade pops in vol across the board and wait for economic reports—essentially, the same playbook as the past few years. Which scenario is better for a trader? Trump brings excitement and more trade setups, but it comes with a lot of late nights hoping you don’t end up on the wrong side of one of his tirades. Kamala, on the other hand, means more of the familiar, data-dependent FED melodrama we’ve all gotten used to. The key is simple: put your feelings aside and trade what the market gives you. I may have strong opinions on the state of the West, but regardless of who wins, I’ll be trading it to the end—and I’d suggest you do the same. The world’s going to end sometime, and I doubt either option extends that timeline. Good luck and God Bless!

NikLentz's tweet photo. Market Insights with The Carny – Week Ahead Preview Nov 3-8, 2024

(Please like and RT if you find this useful, thank you!)

As we approach a pivotal week featuring both the Federal Reserve meeting and the presidential election on Tuesday, market dynamics are poised for significant shifts. Friday's market behavior was particularly telling: despite a weak jobs report indicating only a 12,000 increase in non-farm payrolls—well below the expected 106,000—initial reactions saw bonds rally, the dollar weaken, and short-term interest rate futures (SOFR whites-greens) rise. However, these movements reversed sharply after the equity markets opened, with bonds and SOFR futures declining and the dollar recovering. It suggests investors may be recalibrating their strategies with the election outcome in mind.

While speculating on election results and how the FED might respond to different presidential picks is often considered uncouth in the economic world… I am not an economist. The Federal Reserve is, and always will be, a political machine. Like any machine, it has a purpose, and when certain levers are pulled, they trigger reactions. It’s no secret where I stand politically, but the obvious remains: Trump is a much larger thorn in the FED's side than Kamala. Anyone who traded through the Trump years remembers the power of the dreaded "Trump Tweet." Fortunes were lost in 280 characters or less, often in the middle of the night, because Xi frustrated Trump. He tried to combat nuclear threats with nicknames, used social media as a warning tool after missile strikes, and took many actions that led people to question the wisdom of giving someone with such influence the ability to broadcast every thought impulse instantly. The FED—and Powell himself—often found themselves the target of those tirades.

So, how will the FED and the broader asset landscape react in each scenario?

Let's start with the betting favorite, Trump. If Trump wins, the general expectation is that the long end gets hit hard. Tariffs likely resurface, adding inflation pressures, while tax cuts boost business output—great for the economy but stoking inflation. The dollar stays range bound, gold surges, bonds sell off, oil crashes as we "drill baby drill," and stocks (along with Santa) go straight to the moon! While I disagree with most of these outcomes over a larger timeframe, they’re likely the initial reactions post-election confirmation.

The FED has lost credibility with the recent 50 bips cut—widely seen as politically motivated—and a Trump victory would likely push them into a hawkish stance, not out of inflation concerns but under the guise of managing inflation. In reality, this shift would stem from their unease with Trump and a belief that his policies could harm the FED's long-term stability. The move would be positive for bonds and the dollar, negative for stocks, and would make gold less appealing.

When you combine these dynamics, you’d likely see bonds lower and stocks up in the short term. But as markets adjust to the idea of Trump in office again, the FED could assert control, reversing those trends. Given the shifting landscape, these would be tricky trades, and anyone telling you otherwise is either clueless or trying to sell you something. This game isn’t easy.

We’d fade an extended move down in the 5- and 10-year and take profits as stocks rally. We’d also cover our gold position in the all-weather portfolio and look to short any significant rallies in oil. Additionally, we’d tighten up leverage, as Trump’s unique style and highly public negotiation tactics create an unpredictability that we wouldn’t see with Kamala.

Kamala wins…

Is there a way to short Polymarket? Jokes aside, Kamala is about as empty a suit as they come. We’d see the same messaging flow from Obama to Biden to Harris. After the initial shock and panic around proposals like taxing unrealized gains (never going to happen) and potential tax hikes, things would likely settle into a familiar status quo. But the immediate reaction in asset prices would be intense: expect a sharp stock selloff, a crypto crash, and high volatility across the board. With the market leaning toward a Trump win, a Harris victory could spark some violent reactions.

Long term, it wouldn’t necessarily be bearish for stocks. Bonds would likely remain heavy due to supply concerns and the absence of economic momentum from tax cuts, potentially worsening as the economy slows and the “helicopters” start raining mana from heaven again.

The FED’s Role: With Harris in office, the FED would likely become even more data-dependent, maintaining a cautious stance while quietly supporting the new administration. We might see a few “supportive” rate cuts to keep things steady—a subtle nod of thanks for the Trump reprieve. This setup would allow for a smoother policy path, aligning more closely with the administration’s objectives.

What’s the play if Kamala wins? Buy dips in stocks, sell bond rallies, and trade oil within its range. Gold looks just okay, while crypto would likely crash and recover to a 40-55k range. It’s not as thrilling as a Trump win, but asset stability in the longer term might actually improve under Harris. Fade pops in vol across the board and wait for economic reports—essentially, the same playbook as the past few years.

Which scenario is better for a trader?

Trump brings excitement and more trade setups, but it comes with a lot of late nights hoping you don’t end up on the wrong side of one of his tirades. Kamala, on the other hand, means more of the familiar, data-dependent FED melodrama we’ve all gotten used to. The key is simple: put your feelings aside and trade what the market gives you. I may have strong opinions on the state of the West, but regardless of who wins, I’ll be trading it to the end—and I’d suggest you do the same.

The world’s going to end sometime, and I doubt either option extends that timeline.

Good luck and God Bless!

11K

Trader @xactivetrader

almost 2 years ago

@MoffittBrent @iamJMinx You guys keep promoting these firms for referrals, but do you care how much money people lose in these ?

xactivetrader retweeted

Steven Goldstein

@AlphaMind101

almost 2 years ago

Your trading edge is not your system. Your trading edge is not your method Your trading edge is not your analysis Your trading edge is not your research, news or data Collectively or individually any of these have the potential to put you in a position to win. But everyone else has these too! So they aren’t your trading edge. Your trading edge is how you apply yourself personally, when engaged with markets, risk, uncertainty, complexity, change, challenge. And how aware you are of your situation, context, your connection to the moment. How self aware you are of how you are being as you are doing the above practical parts of trading, so you can do them more efficiently and effectively. Your edge is You🫵 Make sure you are optimising it.

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