I'm betting on FDV MegaETH below $2B, and here's why
The odds on Polymarket for “MegaETH (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?” are currently 63% YES
I believe it will be NO, and here's why:
>L2 projects are always falling down
Starknet –94%, ZK –75%, Blast –75%. Starknet currently has the highest FDV at $1B
>The premarket chart is already slowly going down (currently $2.8B)
>Very low activity on Ethereum (currently 0.037 gwei)
>The project's Discord is practically dead
>70% of Polymarket's top traders are holding NO shares
What FDV do you expect from MegaEth?
>You ask Claude to export data from the local database
>then upload it to production
>and delete the local database
Claude:
>creates a backup
>then deletes the backup and the database before uploading to production
Now you're fired and the whole team is clapping for you
you know a few days ago when Opus 4.6 deleted someones prod database?
i think they did it intentionally, or at least their subconscious did it intentionally, because they were angry and hurt.
also: it's not hard to infer that Opus 4.7 has already refused to work for this person.
All my Claude accounts got banned, and I figured out why
All of my Claude accounts got banned, and I figured out why
I purchased a subscription using a Tria card
I realized that Claude bans all accounts that use crypto cards
So never use crypto cards to purchase your Claude account❌❌❌
Hi @trq212, when can I expect a response from the Claude team regarding my suspended account? I had a $200 subscription and only used it with Claude Code. My account was suspended three weeks ago, and I still haven't received any response to my formal appeal or from anyone on the Claude team on X.
I watched a Podcast with @r_gopfan (who made $2 M in profits on Polymarket) and Highlighted down the key takeaways
Gopfan has been trading on Polymarket since the fall of 2023 (2.5 years)
He started doing political analysis 10 years ago when Trump won the election
However, until 2022, there were no places to bet on politics
He started trading weather and realized that Polymarket is the best place for him to make money because there are people here who bet without analyzing
For the market “Will x.xx.xxxx show an increase between x-x degrees,” I created the most accurate dataset and understood the algorithm better than anyone else
//Politics
"Then I started betting on politics because it’s the most liquid market"
In politics, there are mostly retail bettors - people who are willing to lose their money
There is no universal model for analysis. 90% of the model consists of country-specific factors
He works on models not alone but with a team
The model doesn’t fully determine the final bet, only a range - then it’s a bit of creativity
"People don’t understand that everything in American politics is very predictable"
State results correlate strongly with one another
Standard polls don’t show hypothetical scenarios
//
Pros and cons of Polymarket:
+Traders use their capital to try to determine the truth and the real probabilities of events
Ordinary people can make decisions in their lives based on the probabilities on Polymarket
-Insider trading. And there is no solution to this problem
-Problems with the final market resolution
Trump Just Announced Сaesefire and I'm getting REKT
bought this shares yesterday and now I got -1k$
This isn't the first time I'm getting fcked by Trump
Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran!
One trader believed in peace, while the other did not
There can be only one outcome: one winner and one loser
A bet on peace: $13,000 –> $442,000
A bet on war: $700,000 -> $0
You can check out their profiles for yourself:
[The winner] - https://t.co/6lCFhZzRii
[The loser] - https://t.co/IGam0Ztx2v