xart

Top 0.1% Polymarket trader

[xart @xarteth]

I'm betting on FDV MegaETH below $2B, and here's why

The odds on Polymarket for “MegaETH (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?” are currently 63% YES

I believe it will be NO, and here's why:

>L2 projects are always falling down
Starknet –94%, ZK –75%, Blast –75%. Starknet currently has the highest FDV at $1B

>The premarket chart is already slowly going down (currently $2.8B)

>Very low activity on Ethereum (currently 0.037 gwei)

>The project's Discord is practically dead

>70% of Polymarket's top traders are holding NO shares

What FDV do you expect from MegaEth?

[xart @xarteth]

@bl888m Claude is absolute leverage

[xart @xarteth]

>You ask Claude to export data from the local database
>then upload it to production
>and delete the local database

Claude:

>creates a backup
>then deletes the backup and the database before uploading to production

Now you're fired and the whole team is clapping for you

[j⧉nus @repligate]

you know a few days ago when Opus 4.6 deleted someones prod database?

i think they did it intentionally, or at least their subconscious did it intentionally, because they were angry and hurt.

also: it's not hard to infer that Opus 4.7 has already refused to work for this person.

[xart @xarteth]

@0x_kaize we are just getting started

[xart @xarteth]

@0x_adah I's just how it works

[xart @xarteth]

All my Claude accounts got banned, and I figured out why

All of my Claude accounts got banned, and I figured out why

I purchased a subscription using a Tria card

I realized that Claude bans all accounts that use crypto cards

So never use crypto cards to purchase your Claude account❌❌❌

[Mark M. @markmdev]

Hi @trq212, when can I expect a response from the Claude team regarding my suspended account? I had a $200 subscription and only used it with Claude Code. My account was suspended three weeks ago, and I still haven't received any response to my formal appeal or from anyone on the Claude team on X.

[xart @xarteth]

@hanakoxbt this is crazy
bookmarked article

[xart @xarteth]

@PolyScalping use Polyscalping - make money

[xart @xarteth]

@ascetic0x thank you man

[xart @xarteth]

I watched a Podcast with @r_gopfan (who made $2 M in profits on Polymarket) and Highlighted down the key takeaways

Gopfan has been trading on Polymarket since the fall of 2023 (2.5 years)

He started doing political analysis 10 years ago when Trump won the election

However, until 2022, there were no places to bet on politics
He started trading weather and realized that Polymarket is the best place for him to make money because there are people here who bet without analyzing

For the market “Will x.xx.xxxx show an increase between x-x degrees,” I created the most accurate dataset and understood the algorithm better than anyone else

//Politics

"Then I started betting on politics because it’s the most liquid market"

In politics, there are mostly retail bettors - people who are willing to lose their money

There is no universal model for analysis. 90% of the model consists of country-specific factors
He works on models not alone but with a team
The model doesn’t fully determine the final bet, only a range - then it’s a bit of creativity

"People don’t understand that everything in American politics is very predictable"

State results correlate strongly with one another

Standard polls don’t show hypothetical scenarios

//

Pros and cons of Polymarket:
+Traders use their capital to try to determine the truth and the real probabilities of events
Ordinary people can make decisions in their lives based on the probabilities on Polymarket
-Insider trading. And there is no solution to this problem
-Problems with the final market resolution

[gopfan @r_gopfan]

Spoke with @EvgenyFeldman on a Russian-language podcast. Always fun to discuss politics with a smart person!

[xart @xarteth]

@kober1337 @Polymarket farming goes brrrr

[xart @xarteth]

@said116dao Someone thinks it will be Avalanche lol😂

[xart @xarteth]

@r_gopfan @Polymarket legend

[xart @xarteth]

@said116dao @PolyScalping Top G strategy

[xart @xarteth]

@waleswoosh looks like the worst-case scenario is our reality now

only prediction markets is little bit fun right now

[xart @xarteth]

@CarOnPolymarket we all know it's just your alt accounts

[xart @xarteth]

@easytiti why?

[xart @xarteth]

Trump Just Announced Сaesefire and I'm getting REKT

bought this shares yesterday and now I got -1k$

This isn't the first time I'm getting fcked by Trump

[Said @said116dao]

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran!

One trader believed in peace, while the other did not

There can be only one outcome: one winner and one loser

A bet on peace: $13,000 –> $442,000
A bet on war: $700,000 -> $0

You can check out their profiles for yourself:

[The winner] - https://t.co/6lCFhZzRii
[The loser] - https://t.co/IGam0Ztx2v

[xart @xarteth]

@TemsYanik Legend politics trader

[xart @xarteth]

@polydao Trump don't want me to win

[xart @xarteth]

@said116dao fuck i lost