Spot volume delta for $BTC has only recovered to where it was when price traded around $63K a few weeks ago.
Perp volume delta is now higher than it was when BTC traded at $83K.
That’s... quite the imbalance.
Timeline basically split in two, with bulls as the majority:
Bulls: ‘This time is different’
Schizo Bears: ‘The funds etc are all underwater so they orchestrated an imaginary pump through Trump and the MM’s etc are ‘holding’ price in the 70k range to create artificial demand so Saylor, etc can all exit and buy back at 44k.
I side with the schizos.
Rabbi Shmuley hints that Israel should take out Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens
“The Jewish people must be feared. That’s why we killed Ishmael Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. Why aren’t we going after Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson? We’re going to bring the fight to our enemies.”
If this was really the ‘USD debasement’ moment, Gold would be skyrocketing and your magic internet coins would be nuking.
The ‘price’ of Bitcoin is not real. The underwater cartel pumped it to exit on retail before lower.
Patience.
Real talk
If you’re on the wrong side during a big move like this, most of your immediate impulses are gonna suck
Greatest hits:
1. Revenge short - Can’t believe I missed this piece of shit scam pumping; it’s up so much it HAS to come down
2. Oversized buy - I will use leverage as a time travel machine to make up for being late
3. TA cope - It has to retest the exact level it broke out from immediately because I watched two whole Babypips videos on 1.5x speed
4. All-or-nothing - My only options are 0%. exposure or 100%, nothing in between exists
5. Deer in headlights - oh geez I guess I should wait for a pullback but no what if the consolidation is the pullback hmm maybe I’ll wait for a range to form but what if that range breaks down do I buy the retest of the breakout or the range reclaim oh man fuck shit what’s Ansem saying
6. Overtrader - I will cement my bloodline on the 5 minute chart; if this next candle is the wrong colour I will either be rich or poor
Just chill out, delete your levels, pretend you haven’t looked at the chart in weeks - fresh eyes
Then it’s the usual list of simple questions:
1. What signals are firing / what do I think is gonna happen
2. What kind of bet am I making (mean reversion/volatility expansion/new trend/momentum/Blackrock scam etc.) and on what time horizon
3. Where am I wrong
4. Does my position size match the current volatility and align with the shape of my trade idea i.e. points 1-3
FWIW I’m washed but gonna try to jam some spot sub 70k. If it gets accepted below 66-67k (retraces the breakout) then I’ll lose money
“Wow it’s up so much what you buy the top?”
Then I’ll lose money and look silly on social media. That’s the cost of doing business (at least the first one).
Just start LARPing like everyone else and instead of saying “I bought the top” say “I aggressively rebalanced when an ensemble of carefully weighed momentum factor signals fired contemporaneously.”