Xerberus

Building the risk standard for digital assets.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Season 1 of the Xerberus club is open, and the best forecasters win prize money in stablecoins, paid out before Christmas.

You can start today, in the Terminal or with your own AI agent. The video walks you through it, from applying to your first forecast.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

The club gathers people who carry risk for a living. Each member forecasts the season ahead, one kind of failure at a time, and together their forecasts form one forward view of tail risk.

Membership is by application at https://t.co/sKflklqVHV.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

dParadigm Capital has joined the club.

dParadigm is a hedge fund whose team manages on-chain risk daily. Their assessment of the risks ahead now contributes to the club's forecast, and we are grateful for their expertise.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

We would have missed most of them ourselves. That is why the club pools its members' forecasts into one view of the season ahead, and every member sees it.

Over the next days: seven kinds of failure, each with a recent event. Apply at https://t.co/sKflklqVHV.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

By August, 2026 had more bridge exploits, oracle attacks and smart contract bugs than an average full year from 2021 to 2025, and as many stolen keys. Custody failures ran at under half.

History is where most forecasts start. It is a poor guide.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Take any of 13 kinds of failure and any year since 2021. About two times in three, the next year missed the average of the three before it by more than 30%.

Part of that is our record catching more each year. The last three years alone still show three in five.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

The prizes for Season 1, paid in stablecoins when the season closes on 21 December:

1st place: $2,000
2nd place: $1,000
3rd place: $500

👇 How to win them 👇

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

@Truunik @snj_peters ♥️

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Your forecasts stay private. Together, all members' forecasts add up to the club's view of what goes wrong next, and every member gets to see it.

Over time, the forecasters who keep getting it right count for more.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Season 1 of the Xerberus club is open, and the best forecasters win prize money in stablecoins, paid out before Christmas.

You can start today, in the Terminal or with your own AI agent. The video walks you through it, from applying to your first forecast.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

At the close, we check every forecast against what actually went wrong this season. The closer you were, the higher you rank, and you can change your forecasts until then.

The leaderboard is public, under the name you choose or anonymously. The top three win the prizes.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

a new beginning https://t.co/Ql6nyuW039

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Live on X this Thursday, 8 October, 7 PM UK:

How to use an AI agent to forecast tail risk and win prizes on Xerberus.

@snj_peters connects an agent to xerberus, reads the incident record with it, and takes a forecast from the first question to submission.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Live on X this Thursday, 8 October, 7 PM UK:

How to use an AI agent to forecast tail risk and win prizes on Xerberus.

@snj_peters connects an agent to xerberus, reads the incident record with it, and takes a forecast from the first question to submission.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Our next dinner is at Hong Kong's famous China Club on Thursday 5 November, during Hong Kong Fintech Week. Apply this week and you can still join us.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

Xerberus began with one idea: a consensus protocol for risk. For years we focused on ratings and kept postponing the consensus.

Today we start again, and this time we begin with the consensus.

[Xerberus @xerberus_io]

The season's best forecasters win prizes. Every member is invited to the club's dinners in the world's financial capitals, London, New York and Hong Kong, among the leading professionals in the industry.