joan ceron

[joan ceron @xeron72]

Anàlisi seriós i llarg de perquè Ucraïna guanyarà la guerra, pagant un gran preu, això sí.
Amb pistes pels catalans sobretot al final.

[Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani]

Why Russia will lose this war?

Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?

I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

Ukraine has played the Uno-reverse cards and is now waging a war of attrition against Russia, but an intelligent one, where Russian infrastructure most notably the oil and gas industry but also Russia's war economy is getting wiped out. The Voronezh semiconductor factory is just another stepping stone in this strategy.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Today, as every year on June 22, there will be a lot of grandstanding in Russia about World War II, about one of its bloodiest chapters – Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union. A time that for Ukraine has always been a reminder of the importance of peace and of paying tribute to millions of innocent victims of World War II. This was the very period in the 20th century that should have forever changed the way every state and the world as a whole view human life – establishing life itself as the true highest value. There would have been no world wars if the leaders of that era had been guided by the value of human life rather than their imperial delusions.

Yet today, Russia began this day not by honoring those who fell in World War II, and not with signals that could help bring the current war – Russia’s war against Ukraine – closer to an end. Instead, it began with more completely unjustifiable killings. In the Sumy region, a Russian drone killed a child, a grandmother, and a man. The mother and two other children from the same family were wounded. Their home was destroyed. An ordinary home – not a military target whatsoever. In Zaporizhzhia, two people were killed overnight by Russian strikes, and seven others were injured. Tragically, the Odesa region has also seen lives lost. Strikes were carried out against the Kherson, Donetsk, and Kharkiv regions. Once again, Russia targeted energy infrastructure in the Chernihiv region.

This Russian war has no justifiable cause. Putin was driven by exactly the same motives as the aggressors who came before him. He shows the same contempt for human life. He is just as delusional about this absurd “empire” of his that nobody needs. This war must be brought to an end. It has been taking people's lives for nearly five years now. This full-scale war has already lasted longer than World War I. Perhaps Russia wants to wait until it has lasted longer than World War II as well. But the world certainly does not want that, and it certainly has the power to prevent it. There must be pressure on Putin, pressure on Russia, so that all of this ends in a dignified peace and with real, guaranteed protection for human life. Ukraine has put forward every proposal needed for diplomacy. Through our collective pressure on the aggressor, we must bring Russia to a point where it has no option left but diplomacy and ending the war. Thank you to everyone helping us defend Ukraine. Thank you to everyone helping us protect human life.

[SergioLR🪖 @CasetaBosque]

🚨El Servicio de Seguridad de Ucrania 🇺🇦(SBU) afirma que dos sistemas de defensa antiaérea Pantsir 🇷🇺, desplegados directamente en el Puente de Crimea, estaban entre los objetivos alcanzados durante los ataques ucranianos 🇺🇦 de esta madrugada contra la infraestructura rusa 🇷🇺 en Crimea.

El SBU 🇺🇦 también afirma que el ejército ucraniano 🇺🇦 “ha desactivado” cuatro estaciones de radar del sistema de defensa antiaérea S-400 🇷🇺.

Esperando mas información/confirmación.

[UN Watch @UNWatch]

.@JNS_org: “UN Watch Executive Director Hillel Neuer called for the indictment of outgoing UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, accusing him of crimes against humanity over the agency’s alleged role in enabling and perpetuating Hamas terrorism.”
https://t.co/MWXhxFDUW2

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

All Moscow airports have been closed down due to drone attacks.

There are huge crowds as over 150 flights have been delayed or canceled.

[Toni Florido @toni_florido]

Aquesta enorme infraestructura militar de Hesbol·là, que ha costat milers de milions, s'ha construït sota els ulls atents dels cascs blaus (espanyols) de l'ONU.

Recordem-ho: els cascs blaus tenien el mandat de fer complir la Resolució 1701 (2006), aprovada per unanimitat per l'ONU, amb els punts principals següents:

Zona desmilitaritzada: s'estableix una zona lliure de personal armat, armament i material militar entre la frontera amb Israel i el riu Litani. L'única força armada permesa en aquesta zona és l'exèrcit libanès i els cascs blaus.

Desarmament: s'exigeix el desarmament de tots els grups armats al Líban (incloent-hi Hesbol·là).

Embargament d'armes: es prohibeix el subministrament d'armes o equipament militar al Líban sense el consentiment del govern.

Conclusió: l'ONU no només no ha complert la seva pròpia resolució, sinó que, a la vista de les proves, es pot afirmar que la seva presència al sud del Líban només ha servit per fer exactament el contrari del que exigia la resolució, permetent i consolidant la presència i l'actuació de Hesbol·là a la frontera amb Israel.

[Nacho Montes de Oca @nachomdeo]

Misiles ucranianos inspeccionaron y multaron con explosivos la Fábrica de Semiconductores de Veronezh (conocida como VZPP o VZPP-Sborka), tras descubrir que en sus intalaciones se fabricaban transistores y semiconductores usados para producir los misiles de crucero KH 101 y 9M727 Iskander-K usados para atacar a las ciudades ucranianas
Además se sancionó la producción de diodos y circuitos para producir sistemas de de defensa aérea Pantsir-S1
video de @bayraktar_1love

[Catalunya Nord @Cat_Nord]

La Sant Joan a Catalunya Nord

[Aleix Salvans @aleixsalvans]

Bombardeig de poemes en castellà a Barcelona per censurar la gent que va cremar la biblioteca de Pompeu Fabra al mig del carrer. Cap dissonància cognitiva.

[janoookurd @moabdiiikurd]

@D_abdulkader

[Diliman Abdulkader @D_abdulkader]

Nobody likes Turkey 🤣

[Jacky Pat @JackyPat2]

@zarahsultana

[Paddy Connell @YorkshirePad]

Yes, Andy Burnham voted for the 2003 Iraq War, a serious mistake. But where is the same fury for Syria with over 600000 dead, Yemen with 377000 dead from war and famine, or Sudan with 150000 to 400000 dead and fresh ethnic massacres?
Why the endless obsession with Gaza alone?
Gaza’s war started with Hamas slaughtering 1200 Israelis on October 7, taking hostages, and using civilians as shields. Civilian deaths are tragic, but the genocide and apartheid labels are activist slogans, not proven facts. No final court ruling supports them.
The real hysteria here is claiming fascism is already here and only socialism can save us. Britain is a flawed democracy, not a fascist state. This single issue obsession ignores worse horrors worldwide while pushing slogans over solutions.

[Collectif Nous Vivrons #🟦 @nous_vivrons]

Dis moi qui sont tes alliés, je te dirais quel est ton projet @J_Bardella. Cette semaine, le sous-chef du @RNational_off a rencontré @krzysztofbosak, leader du parti d’extrême droite @KONFEDERACJA_ aux côtés de @SlawomirMentzen qui a déclaré : « Nous ne voulons pas des Juifs, des homosexuels, de l’avortement, des impôts et de l’Union européenne. » Jordan Bardella a adhéré au FN à 16 ans par fascination pour Jean-Marie Le Pen qu’il qualifiait de « visionnaire » et ce n’est pas un détail de son histoire. #NifachoNifacho

[Carles יעקב Grima Camps ||☆||🇮🇱🏳️‍🌈✡️🎗 @CarlesGrima]

Llibertat d'expressió i antisemitisme

[Natxo @natxoescandell]

La consolidació dels estats-nació al s.XIX comportà un genocidi cultural i lingüístic no solament a altres parts del mon: també dins de la mateixa Europa. Les fronteres redefiniren el “nosaltres” i els “altres” també a aquesta part del mur. Un genocidi assumit fins l’actualitat.

[Pol Roca @polroc]

Encara bo que s'esmenta que el que passa a Gaza és una guerra (iniciada i mantinguda indefinidament pels mateixos gazatians) i no un "genocidi", però és que aquest relat agit-prop manipulador de "ai palestins pobrets" resulta molt carregant quan es coneixen la història i els fets

[Pol Roca @polroc]

He vist la peça que ha fet l'@aladdin_azr sobre unes estudiants "palestines" a la UAB, i em sembla molt bé que aquestes senyores puguin venir a estudiar aquí, però trobo detestable el relat segons el qual hi ha uns perversos israelians que són com uns éssers mitològics malignes…

[Amjad Taha أمجد طه @amjadt25]

This was humiliation. No one in modern history has made America wait and beg for negotiations. This was the moment JD Vance should have returned to Washington. The Islamic regime did this on purpose. Trump, if you don't understand politics, you should at least understand protocol.

The visuals from Switzerland:

• The U.S. delegation entered well before the Iranians. In diplomacy, the side with leverage doesn't wait in the room. You claim to be leading and winning, yet you arrived first. First mistake.

• Ghalibaf did not enter while the press was inside. JD Vance did. Another mistake. It looked as though you didn't just abandon allies, including Israel, you also diminished America's image by ignoring basic diplomatic protocol.

• The Iranian foreign minister entered last and refused to shake hands. We didn't need photographs to tell us who looked confident and who looked desperate, but these images made it easy for the world to draw its own conclusions.

[Xavier Sala-i-Martin @XSalaimartin]

¿Per cómo? ¿No era España una "democracia plena" y "ejemplar"? ¿El poder judicial, no solo era independientes sino que solo servía a la "constitución que nos hemos dado entre todos"? ¿Cómo se ha pasado de esa maravilla de país a un "escándalo democrático que no se sostiene"?