xmax17

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

51% of the S&P 500's market cap is in stocks trading above 10x sales.

Half the index.

In 2002, after Sun Microsystems crashed 90%, CEO Scott McNealy famously said this about his own stock at 10x sales:

"At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking?"

He was explaining why investors had been insane to pay it.

Today, half the S&P 500 trades there.

Different decade. Same math.

[Barchart @Barchart]

For the first time in history, the majority of U.S. Stock Trading occurs off exchange 🚨This would include Dark Pools and internally at Major Wall Street Firms

[xmax17 @xmax171]

https://t.co/matgTH5FW8

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Jeff Currie thinks we are sleepwalking into one of the biggest commodity shocks since Covid and the market is still pricing it like a headline risk instead of a physical crisis (Save this).

He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in Singapore, where prices spiked to roughly 230 dollars a barrel.

This week the same pattern has shown up in Rotterdam at around 220 dollars and in Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Australia which means the dislocation has gone intercontinental.

In his words, there is no longer any meaningful spread between Singapore and Rotterdam, no spare barrels to re route, and no policy lever that can solve the problem in the short term.

Currie’s core point is brutally simple, you can print money, but you cannot print molecules.

The futures curve, the paper market is still trading around 100 dollars a barrel.

The physical market on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz is telling a completely different story, with Oman crude spiking to 173 dollars and Asia bound blends effectively clearing around 130 dollars a barrel.

Refined products like jet fuel and diesel are already spiraling north of 200 dollars a barrel in multiple hubs.

That is the tale of two markets he is talking about.

On one side you have screen prices that look volatile but manageable, helped by algorithmic trading, cross commodity hedging and the lingering belief that high prices fix high prices before anything breaks.

On the other side you have physical supply chains that are already breaking, tankers being diverted, refineries bidding against each other for the last uncommitted barrels, and regional shortages that cannot be solved with central bank liquidity.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"Canadian employers are paying the price after AI proves unable to replace laid off staff," per the Globe and Mail

[xmax17 @xmax171]

https://t.co/5UVkeDdLty

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"Artificial intelligence is getting expensive, and companies are starting to rethink their embrace of the disruptive technology," per AFP

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

The Main Event.

Japan sold Treasuries to raise dollars to defend the Yen.

Yen appreciates, global risk-off, credit spreads widen, and the flight to safety behavior in long duration Treasuries reasserts.

The very dynamic I built my career around returns.

The phoenix.

I rise.

[The Bulwark @BulwarkOnline]

Cramer: "There's are people who are not doing well in this country, and I am surprised you are not addressing those people…who have seen SNAP benefits decline, who have higher gas prices because of the war in Iran."

Hassett: "We care about everybody."

Cramer: "Oh?"

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Have they engineered the greatest bubble since 1929?

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"Starbucks, $SBUX, tried using AI to count syrup bottles, and it kept hallucinating the inventory," per TechSpot

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Citibank has said that stocks are their "frothiest level since the Great Financial Crisis."

[OddStats @OddStats]

Today was the worst day on SPX this year, the worst day in 164 trading days, and the 2nd worst day in the past year. It was the 8th worst day in the past decade.

[BuBBliK @k1rallik]

META IS GOING BROKE FROM AI

Mark Zuckerberg just signaled Meta may raise tens of billions of dollars in a stock offering to fund its AI buildout. The stock dropped 6% in a day.

This is the same company that already prints $196 billion a year from ads.

- Meta plans to spend up to $145 billion on AI in 2026 alone
- That is nearly double its $72 billion AI spend in 2025
- Its free cash flow is collapsing toward zero under the weight of it
- And it just lost $83 billion on the metaverse before this

Zuckerberg burned $83 billion chasing legs in VR, and now he wants your money to chase superintelligence.

[xmax17 @xmax171]

https://t.co/H0N7gENPDU

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

weekend reminder, work on stuff that adds to your trading, not fantasy projects:

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

CEOs walking into work after realizing that the AI tokens are going to cost more than the employees they fired

[Ted @TedPillows]

Stocks are dumping.
Gold is dumping.
Silver is dumping.
Crypto is dumping.
Bonds are dumping.
Even Oil is dumping.

If everything is dumping, where the hell is money going?

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

The first sustained credit default cycle in years has begun, and losses will exceed market expectations, according to Pimco's chief investment officer

[xmax17 @xmax171]

https://t.co/CM4On7wXb6