XO Labs

The research lab behind @xomarket
Studying prediction markets, market design, and how humans + markets forecast reality.

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

https://t.co/UvJjCV4uYY

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

Hyperliquid's HLP showed a single house-run strategy backed by community capital can produce institutional returns at retail scale.

The open question: can the same work for prediction markets, where wrong-side inventory at resolution is a 100% loss? Our research:

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

https://t.co/erexBG9FWF

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

https://t.co/erexBG9FWF

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

@LesCosmonautes @inference_labs @akashnetAI It's a good point. Consensus of different AIs is the approach we take to remain reliable.

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

https://t.co/zPbIuwG9YJ

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

A prediction market is only as trustworthy as the layer that decides whether you won. We don't think AI resolution for prediction markets is a solved problem.

Our new paper is about that problem and how we're planning to solve it ↓
https://t.co/MyfIYlK1Sa

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

https://t.co/zPbIuwG9YJ

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

Our first research publication is live.

We tried the elegant solution first. It didn't work. What worked was stranger and more interesting.

This is the full story - what broke, what we built instead, and why the standard playbook for market making doesn't work for prediction markets.

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

https://t.co/v155PpGfgJ

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

https://t.co/v155PpGfgJ

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

@VillainF Not just that but also market making for prediction markets

[XO Labs @xolabs_]

Hello world 👋 we're XO Labs - quantitative research team building market-making and resolution infrastructure for prediction markets.

This is our first publication and it covers who we are, the infrastructure problems we perceive, and what we're building to fix them.

Check it out 👇
https://t.co/VY1oSMU9sm