X Predict Weekly

The world's first weekly publication dedicated to prediction market analysis, insights, and industry coverage.

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

https://t.co/biD1Obx4z9

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

A column article by Will.FX:
Redefining Financial Rails: Perspective on Robinhood's Prediction Market and AI Agent Revolution

If Meta's "Arena" is about gamifying social predictions, Robinhood is elevating prediction markets (Event Contracts) into the "fourth major retail asset class", sitting alongside equities, options, and crypto. It is a textbook Web2.5 bridge model: leveraging world-class Web2 user experience to unlock Web3's on-chain settlement efficiency and fully compliant event contracts.

1. Financializing Information: Democratizing Global Hedging

By offering real-money, binary contracts priced between $0.01$ and $0.99$ USD, Robinhood is making macro hedging accessible to the masses.

Breaking Asset Silos: Users can seamlessly trade Tesla stock, Ethereum (ETH), and "Fed rate cut probabilities" in a single portfolio.

Micro-Hedging for All: Institutional-grade macro hedging—against inflation, tariff changes, or geopolitical events—is now democratized, allowing retail users to hedge risks for just pennies.

2. The Web2.5 Hybrid Architecture: Custom L2 and Regulatory Moat

Unlike platforms facing regulatory headwinds, Robinhood has constructed a robust hybrid model:

Robinhood Chain (L2): Built on Arbitrum, Robinhood's proprietary L2 chain migrates tokenized equities, crypto, and event contracts on-chain, driving transaction fees down to sub-penny levels (under $0.01$).

Regulatory Shield: By partnering with CFTC-regulated clearinghouses like Kalshi and ForecastEX, Robinhood combines decentralized settlement efficiency with a solid US regulatory moat.

3. Agentic Accounts: The Automated Era of Prediction Markets

The true paradigm shift lies in Robinhood's Agentic Accounts, a feature that aligns perfectly with the CAIA (Crypto AI Agent Benchmark) framework:

AI-Driven Trading: AI agents process macro indicators and global data much faster than humans. Robinhood allows users to plug custom AI agents directly into its trading infrastructure.

Machine Pricing: Markets are now priced 24/7 by AI agents scanning news and on-chain data. This shifts prediction markets into an era of hyper-liquidity and marks a major step toward AI-driven asset ownership.

Prediction markets are the ultimate convergence of information and capital. When autonomous AI agents begin pricing reality on Robinhood Chain using real capital, we cross the threshold of Web2 and enter a self-adaptive financial era run by algorithms and protocols.
@LegioAlternati2

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

https://t.co/vTLk4XGkVI

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

https://t.co/XNPvSpWmtf

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

世界盃狂熱發威！Kalshi 、 Polymarket 單月交易量衝破 450 億美元

2026年國際足總世界盃在預測市場���起了一股新一輪的熱潮。

6 月份，預測市場平台 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Polymarket US 的每月交易量總計達到448 億美元，比 5 月份的 256.6 億美元增加了 75%。

Kalshi 的月增幅最大，交易量飆升 87.4%，達到 315 億美元，高於 5 月的 168.1 億美元。 Polymarket的非美國平台吸引了 102.6 億美元的交易，較 5 月成長 45%。受監管的美國版 Polymarket US 也維持了穩定成長，交易量從 5 月的 17.7 億美元增加到 30.4 億美元。

世界盃是主要驅動力：每場比賽最高可達200萬美元
交易量的激增幾乎完全是由世界盃的熱潮所致。在Polymarket平台上，單場比賽的合約交易量高達50萬至200萬美元。
https://t.co/ZK6n8h8ts9

[區塊客 blockcast.it @BlockcastNews]

⚽️ 世界盃狂熱發威！預測市場巨頭 Kalshi、Polymarket 在賽事強力助攻��，上個月交易量迎來爆發性成長。
－
📈 兩大平台 6 月合計交易量衝破 448 億美元，較 5 月的 256.6 億美元暴增 75%。

https://t.co/ATputmkNzY

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

World launches today as the Solana-native, fully onchain prediction market. https://t.co/vXNVOkTkSE

[world @world_xyz]

https://t.co/43mnhFedXH

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

Prediction Market Daily（June 30, 2026 )

Keywords: Regulation | Kalshi | FIFA World Cup | Meta |
📰 Headlines
① Michigan Court Temporarily Bars Kalshi from Offering Sports Event Contracts to State Residents ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
A Michigan state court has issued a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) prohibiting Kalshi from offering sports event contracts to Michigan residents and requiring the company to immediately implement geofencing measures. The case further escalates the ongoing jurisdictional dispute between state gaming regulators and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the regulation of prediction markets.

② Meta Considered Acquiring Kalshi Before Building Arena ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Multiple media outlets revealed additional details today indicating that, before developing its prediction market product Arena, Meta had evaluated acquiring Kalshi. The company ultimately decided to build the product in-house while also exploring potential partnerships with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. This signals that major internet companies increasingly view prediction markets as a key component of the next generation of interactive products.

③ Kalshi CEO: Insider Trading Is Easier to Detect in Prediction Markets Than in Stock Markets ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

In an interview today, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that suspicious trading activity is easier to identify in prediction markets because the relationship between events and trades is more direct. He noted that Kalshi has implemented employee verification, abnormal trading surveillance, and whistleblower mechanisms. His remarks also respond to recent public concerns regarding potential insider trading in prediction markets.

④ FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage Continues to Dominate Prediction Market Activity ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

The FIFA World Cup Round of 32 continues to dominate the front pages and trending markets across major prediction platforms. The most actively traded markets on Polymarket and Kalshi remain centered on World Cup matches, championship winners, and the Golden Boot race, with sports continuing to be the most active sector in the prediction market industry.

🤝 Fundraising / Partnerships

Prospect Prediction Markets Inc. (TSXV: MKT) announced today that all 7,321,679 warrants issued through its June and July 2024 private placements have been successfully exercised. The warrant exercise generated US$976,055 in gross proceeds for the company. The exercise period officially expired after market close last Friday, with the company confirming the final settlement today. The proceeds will be used to further develop its sports prediction platform and support general working capital.

📈 Market Snapshot
🔥 Hottest Sectors Today
Rank | Sector | Heat
①⚽ FIFA World Cup⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
②🏀 U.S. Sports⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
③🪙 Crypto⭐⭐⭐☆☆
④💹 Macroeconomics⭐⭐⭐☆☆
⑤🤖 AI⭐⭐☆☆☆

🎯 Opportunity Watch
The defining theme of June 30 was not trading activity—it was regulation and mainstream adoption.

On one hand, the Michigan court's temporary injunction against Kalshi once again highlights the lack of a unified regulatory framework for prediction markets in the United States. On the other hand, Meta's disclosure that it had considered acquiring Kalshi, together with Robinhood's continued operation of its Prediction Markets Hub, demonstrates that prediction markets are steadily evolving from crypto-native applications into strategic products for mainstream internet and financial platforms.

🔍Industry Outlook

Short Term: The FIFA World Cup will remain the primary driver of trading activity.

Medium Term: Regulatory clarity will determine the pace of platform expansion.

Long Term: Prediction market infrastructure—including white-label solutions, oracles, settlement systems, and market data services—is expected to become the industry's most valuable long-term growth opportunity.

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

预测市场日报
2026 年 6 月 30 日

今日关键词：监管｜Kalshi｜世界杯｜Meta｜

📰 今日头条
① 密歇根法院临时禁止 Kalshi 向州内居民提供体育事件合约 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

密歇根州法院签发临时限制令（TRO），禁止 Kalshi 向密歇根居��提供体育事件合约，并要���其立即采取地理围栏（Geofencing）措施。该案件进一步升级了美国州博彩监管机构与联邦 CFTC 对预测市场监管权限的争议。

② Meta 曾考虑收购 Kalshi，而非自建 Arena ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

今天多家媒体披露更多细节：Meta 在开发预测市场产品 Arena 前，曾评估收购 Kalshi，最终决定自行开发，并同步探索与 Kalshi、Polymarket 等平台合作的可能性。这意味着传统互联网巨头已将预测市场视为下一代互动产品的重要方向。

③ Kalshi CEO：预测市场比股票市场更容易发现内幕交易 ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

今天接受采访时，Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 表示，预测市场中的异常交易更容易被识别，因为事件与交易之间的关联更加直接，平台已建立雇员验证、异常交易监测及举报机制。这一表态也是对近期外界关于预测市场内幕交易质疑的回应。

④ 世界杯淘汰赛继续主导预测市场交易 ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

世界杯 32 强赛事继续占据各主要预测市场首页和热门榜单。Polymarket 与 Kalshi 的热门事件几乎全部围绕世界杯比赛、冠军归属及金靴奖展开，体育仍是当前行业最活跃的赛道。

🤝 今日融资 / 合作
Prospect Prediction Markets Inc. (TSXV: MKT) 今日正式宣布，其此前于2024年6月及7月私募发行的全部 7,321,679 个公司认股权证（Warrants）已全部顺利获得行权，为公司成功带来累计 976,055 美元的总募资总额，行权期于上周五盘后结束，今日予以官方清算确认。所得资金将用于进一步研发其体育预测平台和战略营运资金。

📈 今日市场数据（Market Snapshot）
🔥 今日热门赛道
排名赛道热度
①⚽ 世界杯⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
②🏀 美国体育⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
③🪙 Crypto⭐⭐⭐☆☆
④💹 宏观经济⭐⭐⭐☆☆
⑤🤖 AI⭐⭐☆☆☆

🎯 今日机会观察
6 月 30 日的行业主线不是交易，而是“监管与主流化”。

一方面，密歇根法院针对 Kalshi 的临时禁令再次凸显预测市场监管边界尚未统一；另一方面，Meta 披露曾考虑收购 Kalshi、Robinhood 持续运营 Prediction Markets Hub，都说明预测市场正从加密原生产品逐步进入主流互联网和金融平台的战略视野。

行业判断：

短期：世界杯仍将是交易活跃度的核心驱动力。
中期：监管框架将决定平台扩张速度。
长期：预测市场基础设施（白标、Oracle、结算、数据）将成为最大的价值沉淀方向。

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

The biggest news in the industry today.

The Inham County Circuit Court in Michigan issued a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) yesterday (June 29th), which was officially announced today (June 30th) by the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB).

Because Kalshi allowed users aged 18 and over to open accounts and trade, while the legal gaming age in Michigan is 21, the court ruled that this constituted a potentially serious harm to minors and created "unfair competition" against licensed entities that pay gaming taxes in compliance with regulations.

The injunction requires Kalshi to immediately cease offering and operating any event contracts involving sporting events to Michigan residents and must use third-party geofencing technology approved by the state gaming control board to enforce the restrictions. If Kalshi fails to comply with the geofencing requirements within the specified period, it will face fines of up to $120,000 per day.

A Kalshi spokesperson responded today, stating that the company strongly opposes the decision and will fight it in court, insisting that Kalshi falls under the sole federal jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, the platform has already begun implementing access restrictions in Michigan.

Because Kalshi allows users aged 18 and over to open accounts and trade, while Michigan law stipulates the legal gambling age is 21, the court ruled that this constitutes a potentially serious harm to minors and creates "unfair competition" against licensed entities that compliantly pay gambling taxes.

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

今日業界最大新聞。
美國密西根州因漢姆郡巡迴法院於昨日（6 月 29 日）正式簽發臨時限制令（TRO），並於今日（6 月 30 日）由密西根州博彩控制局（MGCB）對外正式官宣。

由於 Kalshi 允許年滿 18 歲的用戶開戶交易，而密西根州法律規定合法博彩年齡為 21 歲，法院裁定這構成了對青少年的潛在嚴重侵害，且對合規繳納博彩稅的持牌實體造成了「不公平競爭」。

該禁令要求 Kalshi 立即停止向密西根州居民提供和運營任何涉及體育賽事的事件合約，並必須使用州博彩局認可的第三方地理圍欄（Geofencing）技術執行阻斷。若 Kalshi 未能在限期內合規落實地理定位要求，將面臨每日高達 12 萬美元的��款。

Kalshi 發言人今日回應稱，該公司堅決反對該決定並將在法庭上堅決抗爭，堅稱 Kalshi 受美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）的獨家聯邦管轄，但目前平台已開始在密西根州落地相關訪問限制。

由於 Kalshi 允許年滿 18 歲的用戶開戶交易，而密西根州法律規定合法博彩年齡為 21 歲，法院裁定這構成了對青少年的潛在嚴重侵害，且對合規繳納博彩稅的持牌實體造成了「不公平競爭」。

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

A recent industry report from Bernstein dropped a bombshell: while Kalshi and Polymarket possess perfect technology stacks, their lagging distribution makes them highly likely to become acquisition targets. The report points out that prediction markets, sports betting, and consumer finance are rapidly converging into a single competitive landscape, with Robinhood and Coinbase currently holding the strongest dominance.

This analysis precisely confirms futurist Kevin Kelly's fundamental prediction about technological evolution: the destination is dying, the scenario is the future; the ultimate fate of technology is to become "invisible" and "headless."

I. Why are Robinhood, Coinbase, and sports betting giants (Flutter, DraftKings) frantically entering this field?

Because prediction markets are driving a collective leap in human cognitive paradigms: everything is predictable, probability is an asset.

For consumer finance platforms, traditional stock and cryptocurrency trading naturally fluctuates within bull and bear cycles, while "uncertainty" is the only perpetual, cyclical hard currency in human society.

Financial institutions flock to prediction markets because they offer perfect "synthetic assets." A user might not want to buy stocks today, but they'd definitely be willing to place a bet on Robinhood about "whether the Fed will cut interest rates next week"; a sports fan scrolling through social media would also be willing to use their funds to price in "whether there will be a red card in the second half." Prediction markets have become the ultimate weapon for financial giants in 2026 for low-cost user acquisition and increasing user lifetime value (LTV).

II. The Demise of the Destination Model and the Birth of "Headless Marketplaces"

Polymarket's past success relied on the "singularity effect" of political elections. But when the world returns to normal, users won't download a separate app or visit a separate website just to place a bet. Prediction markets will become "invisible"—a native button in the Coinbase wallet, an option on the Robinhood trading panel, and even a readily clickable interactive component in social media feeds like Farcaster and Telegram.

This is a game between "those who price the future" and "those who control the distribution channels."

Prediction markets are no longer an isolated arena; they have been formally integrated into the massive global ecosystem of finance, gambling, and Web3 social media. Everything can be priced, and the giants who control the screen access of hundreds of millions of users are setting the final acquisition price for "the prediction platform itself." Distribution is destiny—when prediction markets collide with the ultimate devouring force of the "headless market."

The final acquisition price.

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

萬物皆可定價，而那些掌控了億萬���戶屏幕入口的巨頭，正在給「預測平台本身」定下最終的收購價格。

這則分析不僅不是博眼球的胡言乱语，而是精準地印證了未来学家凱文．凱利關於科技演進的底層預言：目的地消亡，場景即未來；技術的終極命運，是走向「隱形化」與「無頭化」。
https://t.co/Pc1EDK4T4q

[Hood House @hood__house]

🚨 KALSHI AND POLYMARKET COULD BECOME M&A TARGETS -BERNSTEIN

"Kalshi and Polymarket own the stack but trail on distribution, which leaves each as plausibly a target as an acquirer"

So far:
- $DKNG acquired Railbird
- $HOOD partnered with Susquehanna to build Rothera
- $COIN acquired The Clearing Company
- $FLUT established a dual-FCM structure

Bernstein's view is that prediction markets, sports betting, & consumer finance are converging into a single competitive landscape

Robinhood and Coinbase currently have the strongest competitive positions, according to Bernstein, followed by DraftKings

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

這是一場「給未來標價的人」與「控制分銷管道的人」之間的博弈。預測市場不再是孤立的賽道，它已經被正式編��全球金融、博彩與 Web3 社交的巨型生態網絡中。萬物皆可定價，而那些掌控了億萬用戶屏幕入口的巨頭，可能正在給「預測平台本身」定下最終的收購價格。

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

@CaiafunOfficial good luck

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

@Pilgrim6938 @Polymarket 去中心化有太多各種不同的鬧哄哄，但越來越缺乏各種獨立思考的寧靜。 👍

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

https://t.co/FWfEnFx9IF
Quick question: What’s the difference between a prediction market and an opinion market? Most people don’t know. Prediction: Verifiable events + oracle. Opinion: Subjective debates + crowd consensus.

[Morfi Markets @morfimarkets]

Quick question: What’s the difference between a prediction market and an opinion market?

Most people don’t know.

Prediction: Verifiable events + oracle.

Opinion: Subjective debates + crowd consensus.

If you want to experience a real opinion market 👇

Waitlist is open.

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

https://t.co/Q2UpPThyO7

[good @thenarrator]

a roadmap for how a prediction market platform could actually win, modeled on how the strongest platforms compound advantages (the hyperliquid playbook by @schemacap):

phase 1: founder-market fit

team has structural edge from trading, quant, or mechanism design where they build the right primitive instead of copying polymarket

phase 2: prove the core

launch one thing done exceptionally well. organic growth from sophisticated users who see the edge first

phase 3: scale the infra

survive the volume surges and bring seamless UX during major events earns institutional credibility

phase 4: expand the surface

binary to scalar to options to conditional markets. each new instrument captures a new user type and makes it a one-stop venue

phase 5: align with a token (optional)

distribute ownership to the users who built the liquidity. fees buy back the token so usage drives value. no VC-heavy allocation

phase 6: become infrastructure

open it up so terminals, aggregators, lending protocols, and AI agents build on top and stop being a destination, become the settlement layer

phase 7: category dominance

force the industry toward your standard. early structural decisions compound into leadership latecomers can't challenge

the through-line: build something genuinely better for a specific user, align ownership with who uses it, expand methodically, turn the product into infrastructure

teams that compound patiently become the category

[X Predict Weekly @XPredictWeekly]

https://t.co/i7qNujV26Y
👍我认为Meme 赛道真正有趣的地方，不在于短期热度，而在于它如何把陌生用户聚集成拥有共同语言的社区。

[寻山🐬TermMax @Pilgrim6938]

很多人讨论 Web3 下一阶段，会关注基础设施、AI、DeFi。

但有一个方向经常被忽略，那就是社区经济。

过去互联网时代，平台拥有流量，用户贡献注意力。

而 Web3 正在尝试改变这一关系，让参与者也能够成为生态价值的一部分。

@FIH_USD1 正是在这个趋势下值得观察的项目之一。

围绕 $FIH，FIH 通过 Solana 生态提供快速、低成本的链上交互环境，同时借助 Meme 文化形成用户之间的连接。

我认为Meme 赛道真正有趣的地方，不在于短期热度，而在于它如何把陌生用户聚集成拥有共同语言的社区。

技术解决效率问题，社区解决传播问题。

两者结合，才可能形成强大的网络效应。

未来 Web3 项目之��的竞争，可能不会只是比谁拥有更复杂的机制，而是谁能够创造更强的用户参与感。

因为在开放网络里，用户不是流量数字，而是生态的一部分。

FIH 所代表的方向，本质上是在探索一种新的社区驱动模式。

当每个人都能参与塑造项目文化，Web3 才真正展现它区别于传统互联网的价值。

@Galxe @GalxeQuest @wallchain @TermMaxFi