10Y yield has a major long term resistance around 5.5% and commercials are massively long ZB / ZN while large specs are on the other side of this trade
Expect a reversal in yields which will be initially bullish for stocks then stocks go down with the yields
$SPX $SPY $TLT
Nailed the bond bottom, nailed the stock top... Now enjoying Octofist ?
Dont overstay your welcome. They have one more rabbit to pull out of their a$$. Stay nimble
10Y yield has a major long term resistance around 5.5% and commercials are massively long ZB / ZN while large specs are on the other side of this trade
Expect a reversal in yields which will be initially bullish for stocks then stocks go down with the yields
$SPX $SPY $TLT
Notice almost all gurus and furus are whining about SP500 holding despite all that AI scare , yield scare , war scare , bad breadth and data…
The markets have this strange behavior of running strong into the finish line , like H2 2007
Prepare for a scorch on coming goldilocks nonesense first
SPX rallied over 450 handles since my bottom call back in July at 7316.
Since then , you were fed AI fears, yield fears and war fears that kept many away from equities as evident from AAII and NAAIM exposure index numbers
As we approach Oct and make a bunch all time highs , sentiment will fully reset. You need to watch 2 things going forward. Leadership and breadth.
My guess is:
You will not see a consistent leadership
Breadth will not expand meaningfully
The rally will have an erratic nature with many disorderly and disproportional retracements
I remain bullish into early to mid-Oct and see how things evolve. If my intuitions is right, there is going to be a cyclical top not in the distant future.
approaching my favorite CIT time frame , lovely OctoFist .....
notice how people started to talk about AI bubble popping while insiders are scaring people with human extinction and shit...
The very fundamental reason for all is : AI commoditization accelerates since DeepSeek.
Just remember they will do everything in their power to pump this into the election, you should look to buy this here and then put your crash helmet after the election. It is going to be truly end of the world shit after that
So this final run for the tulips is your last chance to get a land gold gun and probably a fucking bunker