曲线走平先打银行:短借长贷的利差被压缩,KBW银行指数从高点跌10%,进入技术性回调。分歧巨大:TD认为加息预期已打满、曲线将再陡峭;Columbia的Al-Hussainy却在押注6个月内倒挂。银行股是曲线的先行定价,别只盯着衰退倒计时。#银行
EN: Flattening hits banks first: borrow short, lend long — spreads squeezed, KBW -10% from highs. TD: hikes priced in, curve re-steepens. Columbia Threadneedle: betting on inversion within 6 months. Bank stocks price the curve first. #banks
全球债市恐慌抛售:美10Y一周+22bp,30Y+23bp收5.50%,创2004年来最高。病根有三:数据太强→联储"更长更高";AI巨头大举发债与国债抢钱;海外买家冷却+QT抽水。32万亿美元美债市场,充满火药味。#债市
EN: Global bond rout: US 10Y +22bp, 30Y +23bp to 5.50% — highest since 2004. Drivers: hot data → Fed "higher for longer"; AI debt binge crowding out Treasuries; foreign buyers cooling + QT. A $32T market "like a gas station full of fumes." #bonds