noted

still trying to understand it

[noted @xwhynoted]

France didn't need drama. just one goal.

no chaos, no shootout, no penalties this time. 76% of the ball, 15 shots, and a Mbappé finish on 70 to settle it. Paraguay managed one shot on target all night.

the team that refused to lose finally ran into one that refused to let them. too controlled, too clinical, too deep. and the game's one moment of real quality came from exactly where you'd expect it.

Paraguay go home after the run of their lives - the team nobody wanted to draw, the side that knocked out Germany. next up for France: Morocco in the quarters.

no drama. just levels.

[noted @xwhynoted]

France are 84% to win. Paraguay just knocked out Germany.

4-1 down to the USA on opening night, Paraguay could've folded. instead they beat Turkiye, blanked Australia, and dragged Germany to penalties to knock them out of the Round of 32. three of their last four ended 1-0, 0-0, 1-1.

France are the problem. perfect group stage, 10 goals, 3-0 over Sweden. the most clinical side in the bottom half of the bracket, and the firepower Germany didn't have to break down a low block.

Polymarket has France at 84%, draw 13%, Paraguay 5%. $8.4M in volume.

the number reads like a formality. but Paraguay have already turned one favourite into a coin flip this tournament. whether France have enough to avoid the same is the whole match.

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketFC Messi and Mbappé tied at the top with the tournament still going. this is the Golden Boot race everyone wanted

[noted @xwhynoted]

@shmidtqq the FiveM angle is the only one of these that's already proven, not a bet on launch day

[noted @xwhynoted]

@cyrilXBT "wallet scanners logging the best traders while I sleep" is the one that actually matters. everything else is time-saving, that one's finding edge you wouldn't find manually at all

[noted @xwhynoted]

@Av1dlive the two-command setup is what makes this actually get used instead of bookmarked and forgotten

[noted @xwhynoted]

@leopardracer the visual is the hook but that one line about treating notes as a place AI lives in is the actual idea worth remembering

[noted @xwhynoted]

@Di_Krass_ $2B is either the smartest bet in gaming history or the one that finally proves there's a ceiling

[noted @xwhynoted]

France are 84% to win. Paraguay just knocked out Germany.

4-1 down to the USA on opening night, Paraguay could've folded. instead they beat Turkiye, blanked Australia, and dragged Germany to penalties to knock them out of the Round of 32. three of their last four ended 1-0, 0-0, 1-1.

France are the problem. perfect group stage, 10 goals, 3-0 over Sweden. the most clinical side in the bottom half of the bracket, and the firepower Germany didn't have to break down a low block.

Polymarket has France at 84%, draw 13%, Paraguay 5%. $8.4M in volume.

the number reads like a formality. but Paraguay have already turned one favourite into a coin flip this tournament. whether France have enough to avoid the same is the whole match.

[Polymarket Sports @PolymarketSport]

🚨OFFICIAL: THE WORLD CUP ROUND OF 16!

🇫🇷 France vs Paraguay 🇵🇾
🇨🇦 Canada vs Morocco 🇲🇦
🇵🇹 Portugal vs Spain 🇪🇸
🇺🇸 USA vs Belgium 🇧🇪
🇧🇷 Brazil vs Norway 🇳🇴
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs Mexico 🇲🇽
🇦🇷 Argentina vs Egypt 🇪🇬
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Colombia 🇨🇴

[noted @xwhynoted]

@isaiev_ the Shelton loss is what makes this real. nobody who's just lucky hedges the losing side that heavily

[noted @xwhynoted]

@recogard @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @zscdao bookmarking this. the Gaussian bucket approach on the Hermes bot is a smart way to handle forecast uncertainty instead of betting on a single number

[noted @xwhynoted]

@beamnxw Fable 5 got switched off, Sol got gated before launch. different companies, same executive order. the pattern's already the story

[noted @xwhynoted]

@Neuron_404 governments pay six figure analyst teams for this. he built it in a weekend with two models people already have access

[noted @xwhynoted]

Cabo Verde took Argentina to the wire

everyone expected a stroll. what they got was 120 minutes of near-heartbreak.

Argentina went ahead on 29. Cabo Verde equalised on 59 and refused to go away. when Argentina finally edged in front deep in stoppage time, it looked done - 2-1, game over.

it wasn't. Cabo Verde struck again on 103, deep into extra time. 2-2. the smallest nation ever to reach a knockout round, one goal from the biggest upset of the tournament.

it took until the 111th minute for Argentina to find the winner. 3-2. survived.

the market gave Cabo Verde 3.8%. they spent two hours making 86% look nervous. 15 shots, 5 on target, a keeper who kept them alive until the very end.

Messi and Argentina march on - most likely Egypt next in the Round of 16. but they'll remember this one.

Cabo Verde go home with nothing to prove and everything to be proud of.

[noted @xwhynoted]

THE MARKET GAVE CABO VERDE 3.8%

the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup knockout round. now they meet Messi.

Argentina: perfect group stage, 9 points, 8 scored, 1 conceded. Messi leading the Golden Boot at his sixth World Cup, haven't lost a World Cup game since Saudi Arabia in 2022.

Cabo Verde: debut tournament, drew all three groups including 0-0 vs Spain, second in the group without losing once. built on defensive discipline and a keeper having the tournament of his life.

Polymarket has Argentina at 86%, Cabo Verde 3.8% on $11.7M volume. the question isn't the result, it's the margin.

if Cabo Verde keep it close, it's the story of the round. if they don't, nobody's surprised.

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketFC twice. against the champions. ranked 67th. Cape Verde don't care about the script

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketSport Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde, begging for a pen. the upset is alive

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketFC @GoalsXtra 20 World Cup goals. that touch, that finish. nobody else on the planet does this at 38

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketSport Vozinha held out as long as anyone could. then Messi happened

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketFC 7 straight World Cup matches with a goal. 20 all time. and he's still going

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketFC 20 World Cup goals. the record that will never be touched

[noted @xwhynoted]

@PolymarketSport Cape Verde's whole plan is Vozinha. Argentina's whole plan is Messi. simplest matchup of the tournament