tough start of a day, shorted the open and almost got liquidated. I recovered the yolo account and passed it but 5x accounts are deep in drawdown, 100$ away from liquidation.
Starting tomorrow with a fresh funded and will try to cover the 5 others.. wish me luck!
Base hit today but still overtrading; flipping too many contracts has fees eating 40% of gross PnL.
will be spending the weekend refining the strategy and cutting the small scalps.
6x 50k growth accounts @Tradeify
There’s a 3–5 day geopolitical clock running.
And the market is priced for:
→ nothing happening
→ smooth continuation
→ vol staying dead
You don’t need a crisis.
You just need something slightly worse than expected.
The reaction to the 8pm attack rumor already showed it: this market is fragile.
My read for next week:
If equities close the week bullish, that could suggest the market is treating the recent oil spike as temporary and assuming energy-driven inflation will not materially feed through to broader inflation pressures. That would be consistent with last week’s CPI split: headline +0.9% m/m, core +0.2% m/m.
My base case is less benign.
I think the Iran conflict may prove more persistent than markets currently discount, with limited evidence of a near-term durable resolution. If negotiations continue to disappoint, geopolitical risk is likely to keep expressing itself through energy.
Any credible disruption risk around key shipping routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, would raise upside pressure on crude and increase the risk that elevated headline inflation begins to influence broader inflation expectations and the Fed reaction function.
That is why the Asian open and NY open matter. Not as definitive signals, but as early reads on whether markets are pricing de-escalation or continuing to fade the risk.
I remain bearish. I added to SQQQ last Thursday and will reassess if the geopolitical backdrop materially improves. Initial downside focus remains the March lows.
Rough day; went on tilt, blew 3 PAs near DD and dropped ~$1K across 3 evals and 1 PA .
Activated 3 fresh ones and clawed back $1.1K on each. Net positive, but tilt is costing me real money.
@ApexTradeFund
Low vol day, so I stayed in base-hit mode. A few more accounts moved higher, 3 PA is still under water by around $500 DD, and the rebuild continues.
Next objective:
3 more evals → PA
3 under-water PAs → back to life
$GC next couple sessions:
Watching 4750s.
If price accepts there, I like a short into 4650s.
From there, I expect buyers to step back in and push Gold toward 4800s, then possibly 4920s/5000s.
If 4750s fail, I’ll watch 4500s/4450s for longs.