Yael יעל Fürst

writer. perfume enthusiast. gin martini enjoyer. food, culture, movies, music & the occasional mideast hot take. 🇮🇱🇭🇺🇩🇪🇮🇹🇺🇸

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@IonaItalia I swear people post things like that because they want people to respond like you just did

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@IonaItalia over (down) under

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@themaddierune Embarrassing for her, not you.

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@EmilyGouldNYmag Little Big Lies?

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@cljack Hate when that happens

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@DrNeilStone It does have that meaning in Hungarian though, I wonder why that’s not interesting

[Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @DrewPavlou]

Asked Claude to model what would happen if every single adult on Earth could freely vote in elections to a 10,000 seat Parliament.

The factions, largest to smallest:

Islamic democratic (1,806): Muslim-world voters supporting religiously-inflected electoral politics: AKP, PTI, PKB/NU, Ennahda, PJD. Socially conservative, economically interventionist, sovereigntist. Largest single bloc on Earth.

Hindutva/Indian nationalist (1,366): BJP voters and the broader Hindu-nationalist tradition. Religious-traditionalist, economically developmentalist, civilisational. One country produces the second-largest faction in the parliament.

Lulaist/social-democratic (1,220): Global South social democrats. PT, Morena, ANC centre, PDI-P, moderate Peronism. Redistributionist, anti-imperial in rhetoric, democratic, socially moderate.

CCP/Chinese-statist (1,025): Chinese voters who'd back a CCP-aligned faction in a free election. Statist, developmentalist, anti-liberal.

African Christian/Pentecostal (800): Africa's booming Christian majority. Socially very conservative, economically interventionist, pan-Africanist without being anti-colonial hardline. Nigerian, Kenyan, Ghanaian, Ugandan political mainstream.

Western left-liberal (664): The entire Democratic Party, European social democrats, UK Labour, Canadian Liberals, Australian Labor, Greens-adjacent progressives combined. 6.6% of a global parliament.

Catholic social-teaching/Christian Democrat (508): Latin American and Filipino Catholic voters. Socially conservative, economically left, pro-family, pro-labour. Distinct from both Pentecostalism and Lulaism. Bigger than the entire Western liberal-left.

Western strongman/nationalist-populist (488): Trump, Meloni, Le Pen, AfD, Reform, Orbán, PiS. The entire populist global right.

Anti-colonial/Pan-African (429): Burkinabé-style sovereigntists, Sankara tradition, radical pan-Africanism, third-worldism. Distinct from Lulaism in being anti-capitalist and rhetorically revolutionary.

Secular nationalist/developmentalist (371): Kemalists, Sisi-ism, Nasserism's heirs, Vietnamese state, pre-Erdoğan Turkey. Authoritarian-modernist tradition. Not religious, not communist, not liberal. Large in MENA and SE Asia.

Orthodox civilisational conservative (254): Putinism, Russian Orthodoxy, Serbia, Georgia, Greek conservative-Orthodox strand. Traditionalist anti-Western civilisational project. Distinct from both MAGA and fascism.

Green/climate justice (215): European Greens, Australian Greens, Latin American ecological movements.

Latin American/Caribbean populist-right (176): Bolsonaro, Milei's social-conservative flank, Bukele, Kast. Socially Catholic-traditionalist, economically mixed, anti-crime authoritarian.

Buddhist-nationalist (166): Thai, Sri Lankan, Myanmar, Bhutanese, Mongolian Buddhist traditionalism. Ethno-religious, exclusionary.

Feminist/gender-rights primary (156): Women's movements as primary political identity: Iranian women's movement, Ni Una Menos, Indian feminist currents. Transnational but diffuse.

Communist/hard-left (107): Actual communists, not social democrats: KKE, Indian CPI(M-L), various Latin American Marxist factions. The 20th century's dominant left tradition is a rump.

Apolitical/technocratic/localist (88): "None of the above" voters who'd pick a technocrat over any faction.

Libertarian/market radical (73): Mileism, Austrian-school globally, Hong Kong democrats, some Indian market liberals.

Chinese liberal/pro-democracy (49): Chinese voters who'd support a liberal-democratic alternative in a free election. Real, but structurally suppressed.

Indigenous/first-nations sovereignty (39): MAS base in Bolivia, CONAIE, Māori, Aboriginal, Sámi, Amerindian sovereignty movements.

The governing coalition this parliament produces is not liberal, communist, or fascist. It is religious-traditionalist plus Global South redistributionist. Socially conservative, economically left, sovereigntist, anti-Western-hegemonic.

Likeliest first measure: Super-majority passage of laws to ensure the wealthiest 20% of countries transfer 2% of GDP annually to the poorest 50%.

Possible Governing Coalitions:

Coalition I: The Devout-Development Pact (~5,400 seats). Islamic + Hindutva + African Christian + Catholic + Buddhist-nationalist + Lulaist on social-cover-for-redistribution terms. The bargain: socially conservative governance at home (religious liberty, traditional family, sovereignty over social policy) in exchange for redistribution, debt relief, and climate finance from rich countries. Modi's actual foreign policy is basically this coalition in miniature.

Coalition II: The Bandung Redistributionist Front (~5,500 seats). Lulaist + Islamic on material terms + anti-colonial + African Christian + Catholic + Communist + Indigenous + Green on climate-justice framing. Holds together on economics and foreign policy; fractures on social issues. Could govern if the agenda is restricted to material questions — UN Security Council reform, IMF/World Bank reform, climate finance, debt cancellation, reparations, Palestine, arms-export controls.

Coalition III: The Sovereign Authoritarians' Coalition (~4,200 seats). CCP + Secular nationalist + Orthodox + Hindutva + Western strongman + Latin American populist-right + Islamic on non-interference terms. A "Westphalian restoration" coalition built around sovereignty, non-interference, strong states, and rejection of universalist liberalism.

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@joni_askola @Kasparov63 Fidesz has 2-2.5 million voters in Hungary. That’s how many they had, and that’s how many they have. The issue was the fragmented opposition, which is not the case in the USA. Magyar also only won 53% of the vote but has 70% of seats because of the Fidesz electoral system.

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@clairlemon 😂

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@DanBurmawy Ok these are pretty funny

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@lymanstoneky PSA Tisza party won’t take power for another month or so

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@Anna_unbound How is demanding resignations illegal, please explain

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@ick_real Ethel

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@GrassiAbel @LahavHarkov Yes. Try at any Hermitage chain location!

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@JoeLowson @IsraeliPM 1. Hungary didn’t rejoin and 2. is still an Orban government until late May or early June

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@roddreher It might be interesting to consider how Tisza won 2/3 majority with only 52% of the vote. Hint: it’s Fidesz falling into their own trap.

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@teimcuo Szabó Tímea Kabul Rózsája

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@lennoxasaki Twist Miniszter

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

@cremieuxrecueil @CathyYoung63 100%

[Yael יעל Fürst @YaelFurst]

A decade and a half of robbery cloaked in “conservative values” has come to an end. The feast is over, and the bill is about to arrive.

https://t.co/muaJ5GQ1XK