$BTC HAS FOLLOWED THE SAME PATTERN THREE CYCLES IN A ROW
Look at this:
2017: peaked at $19k, dropped 81% to the trendline
2021: peaked at $68k, dropped 76% to the trendline
2025: peaked at $126k - the drop has started
Every cycle the peak gets higher. Every cycle the bottom gets higher too
But the percentage drawdown stays almost identical
- 2017 (-81%)
- 2021 (-76%)
So what's -75% from $126k?
$31,500
That's where the trendline is pointing - same as every cycle before it
NOTIFS ON!
🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING!
Bitcoin is trying to hold up.
But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening behind the scenes.
BTC open interest just hit $105 BILLION.
That is an extreme level of leverage.
And the pattern looks IDENTICAL to 2022.
The trap doesn’t change:
Make the crowd believe the correction is over.
Use maximum FOMO to pull retail back in.
Load the market with leverage at the worst possible time.
Then let the trap break.
Smart money is not chasing this move.
They are waiting for the unwind.
And when it starts, the crowd will be left holding the bag. Again.
This is not strength.
This is leverage.
And leverage is exactly what destroyed the market in 2022.
Now the same setup is here again.
Don’t buy the euphoria.
Watch positioning, not headlines.
For the record, I’ve called every major market turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K BTC top in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry.
I’ll call the next one too.
Turn on notifications.
I’ll track the leverage, the liquidation setup, and the breaking point here publicly, like I always do.
BITCOIN IS REPLAYING THE 2022 BEAR MARKET. WE'RE IN PHASE 4 OF 8.
The fractal is identical. 8 phases. Same sequence every time.
Right now we're in phase 4. More than halfway through.
The worst is starting to get behind us.
What's left: consolidation, capitulation, accumulation.
Then phase 8. The explosive recovery.
In 2022, that phase doubled Bitcoin in months.
We're getting closer.
Patience will be rewarded.
Bitcoin is repeating the 2021-2022 cycle perfectly right now.
The market topped.
Distribution for 54 weeks.
And now the real bear market is starting.
Most people still think this is just a “healthy $BTC correction before another leg up.”
That’s exactly what they said before the last crash.
Reminder: I called the 2022 bottom and the exact market top in 2025 before most people reacted.
Follow and turn notifications on.
Don’t be late again.
🚨 FACT: NEW FED CHAIR = MARKET DUMP
Look at this closely.
Every time a new Fed Chair took over, the market entered a major drawdown:
Yellen: market dumps.
Powell: same story, twice.
This has happened 3 times in a row.
Kevin Warsh is the name everyone is watching.
And almost nobody is pricing this in.
2014 → 2018 → 2022 → 2026
If history repeats again, the next dump won’t be random.
It will be exactly what the chart already warned about.
I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years.
When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
38k here we go!
1, 2, 3, 4… and BOOM.
If this pattern repeats,
the next leg could take Bitcoin to 38k.
That zone remains my base case.
And just like previous cycles,
it probably won’t happen in a straight line.
There may be relief rallies, pauses, and local bottoms along the way.
But structurally,
this still looks like the same simulation playing out again.
This Is The Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Since 2022.
$BTC is now perfectly repeating the same Bear Cycle Stepping Stones again.
$82K → $52K → $64K → $42K.
Bookmark this chart now. You’ll understand it very soon.
Bitcoin is mirroring the 2022 bear cycle right now.
It’s the exact same resistance structure, and the next $BTC target is $51,000.
Bookmark this before you become exit liquidity.
$BTC
Entered the bull trap zone at $83k after a clean ascending channel rally.
May 15, Kevin Warsh potentially becomes the new Fed Chair.
Every Fed leadership transition in history has triggered a major market dump.
First target on the downside is $60k.
Break below that and the next leg opens up.
All eyes on this chart. Notifs on, I'll update.
Bitcoin is now perfectly mirroring this pattern.
After another bull trap and a relief rally, $BTC will dump to $41K.
History is repeating itself, everything going according to my plan:
$79K → $61K → $47K → $55K → $41K
Next stops:
→ $70K in days
→ $40K by June
I called the $126k top in October 2025 and $15k bottom in November 2022.
If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too.
Follow now. I'll update you as this dump plays out.
Many people have been asking me to provide a macro view on $BTC.
Actually, I already gave it to you a long time ago, and I’ve reminded you about it several times.
You can see for yourselves. This view hasn’t been wrong even once since October 19, 2025.
So why would I need to adjust it when it’s still playing out correctly?
Take a close look at it.
I called this bull trap perfectly.
Most people still think that breakout was real.
Everything is playing out according to plan.
Just to remind you, I was the only one who called the $15,768 bottom three years ago and the $126,162 top.
If you missed those, it’s fine. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn on notifications. If you’re not following yet, you’ll see soon why you should.
3 things happen at the end of bear markets.
1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles).
2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price
3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)