yisroel

life enthusiast. wide eyed idealist. nerd wannabe. boomer in training. ❤️📚Interests: #Torah, #JewishHistory (early modern), #Economics, #Education, #Philosophy

[David Hazony @davidhazony]

The war will end Tuesday, except for Jerusalem and other walled cities, which will end the war on Wednesday.

[yisroel @yfeld]

@BobEUnlimited That's one ominous looking logo. Afraid to click on the link.

[Eyal Yakoby @EYakoby]

BREAKING: Footage from Tucker Carlson’s ‘interrogation’ has emerged.

- This is VIP security
- He signs a document
- Smiles
- Hugs the airport security member
- Smiles for a photo
- Cracks a few jokes
- Leaves within 5 seconds

Tucker Carlson is a total fraud.

[yisroel @yfeld]

memento

[Grok @grok]

For brainstorming, try replying with your full updated details (original info + new "eureka" idea) in one comprehensive message. This lets me reprocess everything together, minimizing multi-turn errors. If it feels off-track, starting a fresh chat with the complete prompt can help reset and improve accuracy.

[yisroel @yfeld]

@ZoharAtkins Although, I agree with you, in this essay he goes into why he thinks there's more reason to be concerned with AI job replacement.
https://t.co/ADkzJ4fAMq

[yisroel @yfeld]

Crypto fans starting to say things like "#Bitcoin is offensive; #Gold is defensive." Except, if BTC isn't defensive then it isn't offensive either.

[yisroel @yfeld]

Completely false from an Econ perspective. Added financial instruments don't destroy the underlying or its market. Obviously, can increase short term fluctuations but ultimately helps market long term.
As far as price discovery, Crypto has always been & will always be guesswork.

[0xNobler @CryptoNobler]

🚨 HERE’S WHY BITCOIN IS NONSTOP DUMPING RIGHT NOW

If you still think $BTC trades like a supply-and-demand asset, you MUST read this carefully.

Because that market no longer exists.

What you’re watching right now is not normal price action.

It’s not “weak hands.”
It’s not sentiment.
And it’s definitely not retail selling.

Most people are completely unaware what’s happening.

And by the time it becomes obvious, the damage is already done.

This move didn’t start today.
It’s been building quietly under the surface for months.

And now it’s accelerating.

Here’s the truth:

The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity is gone.

And when scarcity is gone, price stops being discovered on-chain and starts being set in derivatives.

That is exactly what happened to Bitcoin.

And it’s the same structural break that already happened to:
→ Gold
→ Silver
→ Oil
→ Equities

Once derivatives took over.

The original Bitcoin thesis is broken.

Bitcoin’s valuation was built on two ideas:
→ A hard cap of 21 million
→ No rehypothecation

That framework died the moment Wall Street layered this on top of the chain:
→ Cash-settled futures
→ Perpetual swaps
→ Options
→ ETFs
→ Prime broker lending
→ Wrapped BTC
→ Total return swaps

From that point forward Bitcoin supply became theoretically INFINITE.

Not on-chain.
But in price discovery, which is what actually matters.

Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR).

The metric that explains everything.

Once synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, price no longer responds to demand.

It responds to positioning, hedging, and liquidation flows.

Wall Street can now trade against Bitcoin.

They’re not guessing direction.

They’re doing what they do in every derivatives-dominated market:
1⃣ Create unlimited paper BTC
2⃣ Short into rallies
3⃣ Force liquidations
4⃣ Cover lower
5⃣ Repeat

This isn’t “betting.”

It’s inventory manufacturing.

One real BTC can now simultaneously back:
→ An ETF share
→ A futures contract
→ A perpetual swap
→ An options delta
→ A broker loan
→ A structured note

All at THE SAME TIME.

That’s six claims on one coin.

That is not a free market.

That is a fractional-reserve price system wearing a Bitcoin mask.

Ignore it if you want, but don’t pretend you weren’t warned.

I’ve been calling Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade now, and I’ll do it again in 2026.

Follow and turn on notifications before it's too late.

[yisroel @yfeld]

Good things are coming in 2026 for Wall ST and Main ST
#AI #economy2026

[yisroel @yfeld]

Is AI a bubble? my 2 kopeiks

[yisroel @yfeld]

8. Will AI kill SaaS? definitely NOT.
Why?
Because Specialization. (Comparative advantage)
9. Will AI kill some companies in SaaS industry? Possibly. But that's a good thing. More competition, more productivity is a good thing.

[yisroel @yfeld]

AI is Awesome. Made a song for all the #cryptobros
https://t.co/nFrEilvbss

[yisroel @yfeld]

who could have thunk?

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

Ooph.

Using AI, people did much better on practice tests, and notably worse on actual exams, when the AI was unavailable.

AI might not be good for actually learning yet!

[yisroel @yfeld]

Remember, an economist is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the thing that he said yesterday will happen today didn't happen.
Joking aside, predictions are actually very difficult. As always @ojblanchard1 makes an astute point, which improves our ability to be right next time

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

Indeed. Theory and past evidence strongly suggested, and economists largely predicted, that, as tariffs reduced the trade deficit, the dollar would appreciate, cancelling much of the effect of tariffs on the deficit.
The predictions were wrong.
So what happened? Something else happened..., namely worries about US fiscal deficits, and more generally about the reserve currency status of the dollar, which went the other way.

[yisroel @yfeld]

@ZoharAtkins @garrytan בְּרֵאשִׁית בָּרָא אֱלֹהִים- end letters spell out EMET
בָּרָא אֱלֹהִים לַעֲשׂוֹת - end letters spell out EMET
EMET seals the start of creation and its conclusion

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

Poland now has more gold than the European Central Bank.

The Polish Central Bank has decided to increase its gold reserves from 550 to 700 tonnes, which would make Poland country with the 10th largest gold reserve in the world. 🇵🇱

[yisroel @yfeld]

too close to home :((

[Zohar Atkins @ZoharAtkins]

A powerful parable about sunk cost fallacy:

A master tells his servant to bring a fish from the market. The servant returns with a rotten fish. The master, disgusted, gives him three choices of penance:

a) Eat the rotten fish.

b) Receive 100 lashes.

c) Pay a fine of 100 gold coins.

The servant, wanting to save his money and his skin, says, "I'll eat the fish." He starts eating, but halfway through, he begins to gag and vomit. He cries out, "I can’t do it! Give me the lashes instead!"

After 70 lashes, his back is bloody and he is screaming in pain. He breaks again: "Stop! I’ll just pay the 100 gold coins!"

The Result: He ate the fish, took the lashes, and paid the money.