flambard yann

[flambard yann @yflambard]

@commonsenseplay Could be interresting to adjust this chart with the size of the UST market which is growing over time + keep in mind that these short are also used as a hedge against something else. Maybe the holders of these shorts are long bond on the other hand.

[flambard yann @yflambard]

@clement_mci @VerianGroup On peut voir le haut de la liste svp? Y'a qui encore devant? Pol Pot, Staline et Dark Vador?

[The Market Mind @Market_Mind_]

Largest Asset Managers in the World (AUM)

🇺🇸 BlackRock — $12.5T
🇺🇸 Vanguard — $10.1T
🇺🇸 Fidelity Investments — $5.90T
🇺🇸 State Street Corporation — $4.67T
🇺🇸 JPMorgan Asset Management — $3.70T
🇫🇷 Crédit Agricole — $3.34T
🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs — $3.29T
🇺🇸 Capital Group — $2.85T

[Nicolas Chéron @NCheron_bourse]

En France, depuis 50 ans, le coût d'un employé augmente plus vite que son salaire net.

Je n'ai pas les mots.

[flambard yann @yflambard]

@NoLimitGains These are just technical glitches bro. Looks at future contracts (ZT1! for 2Y, ZF1! for 5Y, ZN1! for 10Y, ZB1! for 30Y, UB1! for Ultra), there is no such strange movements.

[flambard yann @yflambard]

@ouvalargentfr Très intéressant. Mais par contre pour être vraiment fair il faudrait ajuster ce chart de l'inflation (qui était beaucoup plus élevée dans les années 70). Ce serait beaucoup moins frappant l'écart après cette correction j'imagine.

[Physics & Astronomy Zone @zone_astronomy]

The highest quality video of the moon was just released… this is so beautiful.

[flambard yann @yflambard]

Russia has suspended ammonium nitrate exports until April 21.

With Russia accounting for nearly 40% of global trade in ammonium nitrate, this disruption—combined with the fact that Gulf states control 49% of traded urea and 30% of ammonia—threatens the global fertilizer market.

Key risks to watch:

Significant supply shortages during the planting season.

Record-high fertilizer prices.

Ripple effects on crop yields and global food security.

#Agriculture #Commodities #FoodSecurity

[Frenchie @Frenchie_]

En 2013 j’ai à peine 18 ans. Je suis chez mon grand-père il vient tout juste de disparaître.

On frappe à la porte.

J’ouvre.

Deux hommes en uniforme se tiennent devant moi, leurs épaules ornées d’étoiles : l’un porte le bleu, l’autre une tenue couleur terre.

Mon père arrive en courant, les fait entrer, puis me demande d’aller dans la chambre.

Ils sont venus récupérer des documents que mon grand-père conservait, ceux sur lesquels il travaillait encore.

C’est à ce moment-là que je saisis vraiment l’ampleur de son travail.

Mon grand père était physicien nucléaire et a participé à l’ensemble des projets civils et militaire de l’après-guerres

Il a été un des principaux artisans de cette révolution industrielle Française, qui nous a donné notre indépendance énergétique et notre dissuasion nucléaire.

On laissera pas ca mourir.

Et pour pas laisser ca mourir, il faut d’abord comprendre.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an even bigger rise...
https://t.co/2nXDj5db75

[Michael Brown @MrMBrown]

Putting the recent hawkish repricing into context...this sort of thing isn't normal!

[Rybar MENA @rybar_mena]

The USS Tripoli amphibious group reached Singapore and heads to the northern Arabian Sea in 7-10 days. A US landing operation in Iran is becoming more likely, with Bandar Abbas the prime target to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The 31st MEU brings F-35s, MV-22 Ospreys, helos and light armor. Supporting strikes on Assaluyeh and Kharg Island are likely to distract Iranian forces. Special ops assets are already positioned. With airstrikes falling short, ground action looks probable.

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks.

[h16 @_h16]

https://t.co/WbwOYZsBTQ

[ 𝓂𝒶𝓇𝒾𝑜🇱🇧🇬🇧🇦🇪 @MarioLeb79]

Update Numbers as of Mar. 6, 12.00 AM
The numbers are rounded and compiled from various media reports, with a margin of error of ±10% 15%
**Corrected previous Post there was a Mistake

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

https://t.co/d7iboqBMtn

[flambard yann @yflambard]

@RafiFarber @grok isn't it the same thing for each roll? The jaws closed for previous maturities about at the same number of days before the roll ?

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Reminder: The typical midterm election year drawdown is 18%... that would take the S&P 500 below 5800 @LPLResearch

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🌎 Citrini Research just dropped a provocative thesis:

⚠ We’re heading toward a “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” ⚠

➡ The core idea?
AI is making intelligence abundant — and the global economy isn’t built for that.

Here’s the breakdown 👇

1/🧠 AI agents are removing friction everywhere.
*By 2026–27:
• Autonomous AI handles shopping, taxes, insurance, legal work
• Commerce shifts to automated optimization
• Industries built on complexity & information asymmetry collapse

2/💼 White-collar displacement accelerates.
AI replaces knowledge work → Displaced professionals move down the wage ladder → Labor supply rises → Wages compress across sectors.
*This spreads beyond tech.

3/🏢 SaaS & private credit are exposed.
Many leveraged software deals assumed perpetual growth.
But AI reduces demand for service-heavy SaaS.
*Results:
• Downgrades
• Defaults
• Risk repricing

4/🏠 Households weaken quietly.
Prime borrowers still pay mortgages…
But they’re tapping savings & credit.
Income compression → Spending slows → Debt-to-income rises.

5/ 🔁 A negative loop forms:
AI → layoffs → lower income → weaker demand → more automation → repeat.

At the same time:
Income stress → tighter credit → weaker wealth effect → slower economy.

6/ 🏛 Governments face structural strain.
Tax systems rely on labor income.
AI shifts income toward capital & compute.
Less payroll tax.
More pressure on safety nets.

⚠ The big idea:

For 200 years, human intelligence was scarce.
Now it isn’t. The report argues we’re entering a painful repricing as “intelligence premium” unwinds. Not necessarily collapse — but transition.

Agree or not, the thesis is clear:
AI isn’t just a tech cycle.
It’s a macroeconomic restructuring event.
Worth thinking about.

*Link: https://t.co/WvordBQpiu

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Cass Freight Index fell -7.1% YoY in January, to 0.89 points, now down to its lowest level since April 2009.

This index tracks freight volumes across North America and is viewed as a gauge of US economic momentum.

This also marks the 36th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak on record.

Over this period, shipments have fallen -20.9%, a similar decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

According to Cass Information Systems, normal seasonal trends suggest February could see an -11.0% YoY decline.

The US freight recession is accelerating.