SirVol

[Logical Thesis @LogicalThesis]

Long idea pitch time: $DCTH

$DCTH an FDA commercially approved treatment for liver cancer with peak sales estimates around $350M, just saw positive ph2 results in their additional trials which would expand peak sales to ~$500M if approved

Currently trading sub $300M EV ($90M cash, profitable, ramping sales)

Conservative fair value for bios should be around 2X peak sales. Would put fair value around $1B or a 3X from here.

Trading at range lows of 10-11 range. I have traded this twice 9 to 16, then 11 to 16. Now back down to range lows while business outlook just improved so I think next time we test that range high, we break out.

Seeing 20 seems very realistic. 30 (fair value) isn't far-fetched. And in a bio bull, could see much higher as multiples expand beyond fair value.

Even if peak sales are $400M. Still trades sub 1X EV/S (big margin of safety)

The stock was $15 after recent ph2 results, but completely gave back all gains as company pre announced an expectedly weak Q3 and guided down more than analysts expected. For me? Not a concern. This is a treatment that requires many medical professionals. After investing in med tech for a while, it's common for doctors to take summer off for vacation, so it becomes difficult to schedule treatments. Miss was expected and mgmt is early in their launch and learning.

Now we have good and bad news priced in and the price is too low. Expected expanded peak sales from positive data. Lowered 2025 rev guide + now we know the extent of pricing discounts for their treatment (~12%) under rule 340B. So it's all baked in / known info.

I wasn't expecting much from their pipeline but this CHOPIN trial data changed my mind. They also have ongoing earlier trials for colorectal and breast cancer. Big positive: they can self-fund trials with cash on hand + earnings.
If those succeed, could boost peak sales to $1B+, giving reason for this to be a promising long term hold. In that scenario, this could be >7X from here just for fair value.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@0xPAH @CollaterizeHQ Any plans on marketing the launchpad? How about onboarding institutions onto the platform so they can trade too? For eg there are a few crypto hedge funds/desks nowadays as well as large institutional players like BlackRock. Helps bring liquidity and ofc bond quicker!

[Mathias Mærsk @mathiasmaersk1]

From an operations’ standpoint, this makes a lot of sense for $TRMR. Amobees automated platform is proven to optimize results by understanding consumer action across channels. This is huge in a digital world with endless offerings, most of which are all based on story, not data.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@BuschBu Rumour for now.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

Merger speculation: $TRMR attracting interest from CVC and other PE firms.

[Aston Girl @reb40]

#TRMR investing $25 million in VIDAA, a smart operating system installed in tv’s etc
They already have a strategic relationship with them

After last nights rumours Tremor are certainly having a busy week
Now if the share £ could just reflect this🤞🏼
I hold https://t.co/1yH2rZ3wXj

[Alex of House Stark @TheUKStockTrad1]

Tremor set for a very compelling acquisition. Sky News have been right with every historic transaction so expect this to happen. https://t.co/ZdOxpZgrz0 $trmr #trmr @PsychoStock @Yield_Fanatic

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@TheUKStockTrad1 @PsychoStock Wow would never have thought this would happen..but cheap as chips.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@Pan78295040 The dividend makes $HIMX super attractive for now, but need to super cautious here at the same time.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

1/
$HIMX updates Q2 guidance:
- Q2 rev now expected to down -22% to -27% qoq (previous: -16% to -20% qoq)
- Gross margin guide unch at 43-45%
- Non IFRS diluted EPS now $0.4-$0.45 (vs $0.45-$0.5 previously)
- IFRS diluted EPS of $0.365-$0.415 (vs $0.415 to $0.465 previously)

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@Pan78295040 Fair. I know the have good visibility on the auto segment, but one point to potentially worry about in that side is (a) demand reduction and (b) market potentially going into an oversupplied phase given auto OEMs may have moved from Just in Time to Just in Case inventory.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@Pan78295040 I think at this point, probably seeing more global end market slowdowns if I were to guess

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@LSValue REVLON is expected to file on Monday.

[Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" @LawrenceLepard]

A thing of beauty

[StockPsycho @PsychoStock]

$TRMR's 1Q2022 Results:

- Contribution Ex-TAC: $71m (vs. guidance $73m)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $33.6m (vs. guidance $33m)
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 47.3% (vs. guidance 45.2%)

13% YoY Organic growth. Beaten the EBITDA $$ and % guidance .

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@SneakyPete8888 Excellent move no doubt. I missed it.

Earnings were ok, it's just the guidance that doesn't add up for me esp vs novatek.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

Well, I got that wrong on $HIMX. Q2 outlook looks terrible although a lot of the impact is down to Chinese lockdowns. Mngmt noting it will be a trough quarter but even so, despite a 16-20% seq decline in revenue, they are still projecting for a $0.45-$0.50 EPS. Interesting.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@TomSmith838 This isn't the end. I'll be back I'd reckon.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

Sold out of $HIMX into this rally and booked a small loss.

May buy back at lower levels (if it does go lower), hopefully in time for the $1.25 divi.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

Levered long $HIMX in size.

These levels are ridiculous.

May add more.

[SirVol @Yield_Fanatic]

@Bianmf1 Oh yes I agree. Q1 result is good, q2 guidance is disappointing esp given Novatek's guidance.

That said, the call was super good and CEO clearly said getting to FY21 rev level is a low bar, aiming to grow rev this year.