Climbed off the Hamster Wheel at 34. Investor, Trader, Speculator, Lender, Explorer, Sustainable Farming. Wherever Value and Opportunity meet, I'll be there.
SPCX should be up 30% today.
Here’s a great example of how Wall Street discounts what Elon says. Bottom line, analysts cut the low end of his guide in half.
Last night he said they’ll exit 2027 with $500B-$1T in revenue run rate. I believe Elon implied the low was based on adding 10 GW of compute in CY27 and the high end 20 GW.
My take is there’s a 75% chance they add 10 GW, and 2% chance of 20 GW. So we should focus on the low end, or $500B in ARR exiting 2027, or $125B in Dec-27.
Before earnings, the Street was at $31B for Dec-27. He guided to $125B or 300% increase. $SPCX is up 12% on that. It should be 30% plus today.
This morning the Street is at $50B. Since many analysts have yet to update numbers, we look at those that have made changes, and those are at around $70B, compared to the “guide” of $125B. That’s the 50% haircut.
“Grok, pull over” was just the start.
I’ve now added “Grok, turn right up ahead” and “Grok, turn left up ahead” to my setup.
Here’s a demo of it in action!
Even if investors were expecting a good outcome today, the market is underappreciating the significance of the $SPCX launch, with the stock down 1%, in line with the Nasdaq.
Today had double and quadruple good news:
1. With the help of some rounding, Starship is about double the size of Falcon Heavy, so reaching orbit with a rocket that massive is a milestone. That means they can get satellites to orbit cheaper and faster.
2. Starlink speeds should about 4x with V3, the first of which went into orbit today. That means new pricing tiers are coming the average Starlink download should go from about 150 Mbps to about 600 Mbps.
@growthrapidly When I look at the earnings, the earnings growth, the projections, the moats, the many amazing pieces.....its a must own for me. Even at this price (if you don't have it already). In fact I bought more yesterday. Just my opinion.
@growthrapidly strongly recommend you change your SPCX target to closer to IPO. Highly unlikely we see $100. The unlocks just aren't getting it done for the Bears. But you do you.
Stripe building the agentic payment platform just said on A16z pod that "tokens are the new dollars"
Jensen Huang building the GPUS for the AI factories just said in his X post "in the AI economy, compute is revenue"
Together, that’s the AI economy:
money → compute → intelligence → output.
AI is breaking the old link between economic output and human time.
The AI Macro Nexus Point where AI and crypto merge to form the new agentic speed economy is starting now.
https://t.co/oB6nGLCX1a
Ro, I like you. You know that. But you need to read the state of the state.
The number of Deca Unicorns in Cali is growing by the day as investors chase amazing startups.
A unique feature of these 10b startups is that even if they raise a billion, little, if any of that money goes to the founders, who are now worth billions of dollars over night. They are the definition of cash poor, stock rich
How are you going to tax them ? Make them borrow money against their shares, if they can? They just raised money to grow their company and a bank will come along and loan them money ? A company that has been in business maybe less than a year ? lol
Will you take their stock if they can’t ?
Do you really think each of multiple founders, who started an amazing company in Cali and is now a billionaire, can each just pull out $250m per billion of net worth from their raise ? You know they can’t.
If this passes , and it doesn’t directly impact me at all, I won’t be a cali resident, but you can bet if I’m investing in a multi billion dollar startup, I’m asking them to move from California first.
IMO, if this passes, only idiot startup founders stay in Cali.
I’ve done it before and will do it again. Dallas. Pittsburgh. Indiana. I will make NOT being in California a pre requisite for an investment
Ideology is not a strategy Ro.
@BrandonVanZee As a big fan of Buffett and Munger, this list is disappointing. Should have bought GOOG long ago. And these others? Really? NYT? Airlines?
@theoilsofra I don't. I think he is trying to survive. MSTR is a BTC treasury selling BTC at or near the bear cycle lows. Nothing else explains it. Could be wrong.
@theoilsofra I think BTC does well long term but I'm not a fan of MSTR. The Preferred (STRC) was a bad idea and seems to force ponzi like behavior (sell MSTR/BTC to pay yield) from MSTR. Just my Opinion.