STR investing β real numbers, no hype π‘
Market breakdowns & reg watch, all 50 states
Free newsletter + deal screener below β
Built by an analyst, not a guru.
@GemHausApp The appreciation side of this is underrated. STR buyers in top markets are often paying a premium, but the forced appreciation from cosmetic upgrades + strong reviews compounds differently than a plain rental. Management drag is real though β eats 20-25% of gross.
@reymoinvests Almost no one accounts for platform fees, restocking, cleaning, and slow months together. Net cash flow after all-in expenses is usually 30-40% below what the headline ADR suggests. The properties that hold up show >60% occupancy with ADR above market average.
@brayancedenore Big one. Projected occupancy from listing platforms is usually best-case. Cross-referencing actual booked nights vs available in the same market, same price tier β that's where the real number lives. Comps matter more than the listing site's estimate.
@RichardNorris00 The underrated part: STRs let you validate the market before scaling. Run one unit, track actual occupancy vs projections, then decide on unit 2. Hard to do that with a W-2 and a long-term rental.
Beach STR owners: your deal needs to survive the off-season.
Destin does $433/night in summer. In January? $180.
If your break-even occupancy is above 55%, one bad winter month tanks your year.
Seasonality isn't a risk factor. It's THE risk factor for coastal markets.
@GemHausApp@CashFlowDiary Exactly. Regulation risk is the one most underpriced right now β markets like Scottsdale and Joshua Tree have tightened permits significantly in the past 2 years. A property that penciled at purchase can get stranded if the license cap hits.
@reymoinvests This is the number one underwriting mistake. True cash flow = gross revenue minus OTA fees, PM fees, supplies, utilities, maintenance, and debt service. Airbnb payout is closer to gross revenue. The delta is usually 40-55% of that number.
@VestioCapital The big ones people miss: platform fees compound (Airbnb + channel manager), linen/supply restocking scales with occupancy, and hot tub/pool maintenance runs $2-4K/yr in most markets. Model these before you sign β they can shift a 12% CoC to 7%.
@CaseyMericle@jonathanvolk Typically 20-25% down for DSCR. REP status isn't required β DSCR qualifies on property income, not yours. REP matters more if you're trying to use STR losses to offset W2 income via the short-term rental loophole.
@brayancedenore The gap is usually seasonality β tools show annual averages but most markets have 2-3 dead months that kill cash flow. An 8% cap rate in summer can be 3% annualized. Always model month-by-month before underwriting.
@OCGProperties The occupancy gap between well-matched and mismatched properties in the same market is often 15-20 pts. Listings that align design with the dominant guest profile (couples, large groups, etc.) pull ahead on ADR too β it compounds fast.
DSCR loans are the STR investor's best friend.
No W-2 required. No DTI limits. Qualification based on property cash flow, not your income.
Current rates: 7-8%. Need 1.2x+ coverage to qualify.
If your deal can't hit 1.2x DSCR, the property is telling you something.
First Deal of the Week just dropped.
Sedona 3BR A-frame. $350K. 68% occupancy. $1,409/mo net cash flow.
Full underwrite: cap stack, cash flow waterfall, sensitivity analysis, market comps.
This is what real STR analysis looks like.
Savannah STR deep dive coming next month.
Covering:
Β· Why the 20% permit cap creates a moat
Β· Which neighborhoods still have permit availability
Β· Cash flow modeling at current rates
Β· Comps on recent closings
Follow so you don't miss it.
@FLPropGroup The underwriting shift matters here too. Hybrid models need separate occupancy assumptions by season β STR ADR in peak, MTR flat rate in shoulder. Most investors model it as one blended number and get surprised when the MTR months underperform projections.
@VestioCapital The ones that catch people most: platform fee creep (Airbnb + VRBO splits can run 18-25%), seasonal maintenance timing, and dynamic pricing software cost. Underwriting at gross revenue without these baked in produces fantasy returns.
@brayancedenore Exactly this. Gross revenue is vanity. What moves the needle: net NOI margin (typically 40-55% after platform fees, PM, and maintenance), and occupancy stability β how much does it drop in your shoulder month? That tells you actual underwriting risk.
@RichardNorris00 The math helps here too. Most W-2 earners overlook the STR tax benefit β material participation can unlock significant passive loss deductions that offset active income. Turns a side asset into a real tax strategy.
@OCGProperties Nailing the avatar also shows up in the revenue data. Properties that match a clear guest type tend to hold occupancy higher during shoulder seasons β when the generic listings drop off.