Pres Invests

Turned $20k into $400k in 2 years.
Options seller.
$520k AUM, fully public.
26, Corporate Tax Manager by day.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

$ORCL Earnings this Thursday, September 10, after the bell.

My position: $142k... 869 shares, $163.92 avg cost.

$ORCL is down 53% from its 52-week high of $345.72, and it hit an actual low of $114.50 last month, a 57% drawdown in 10 months. Over that exact same stretch, RPO grew 363%. The business got stronger while the stock got cut in half.

I think Thursday is the quarter the market finally has to reconcile that gap, and I'm looking for a reclaim of at least $250 by year end. Let's talk about it...

Why this is beaten down for reasons that don't hold up:

- The SaaSpocalypse narrative crushed it first. Jensen himself warned AI would gut enterprise software spend, and Oracle got lumped in as a SaaS name about to get disrupted. Except Oracle's growth engine isn't per-seat software, it's the infrastructure AI runs on. Their own CEO said customers have "quickly moved on" from that fear, and Jensen has since walked it back completely, saying there's never been a better time to be in software.

- Then debt fear took over. Negative $23.7B free cash flow last year, junk bond chatter, another $40B in debt and equity raises planned. Real, but it's leverage against $638B of already-contracted backlog, not speculative spend chasing a maybe.

- The math says it's cheap independent of any of that noise. PEG ratio sits at 0.69 with a forward P/E of just 20 against guided growth of 27-29% this quarter. A PEG of 1.0, just parity with growth, not even a premium, prices this stock in the $233-235 range today. $250 isn't a moonshot number, it's roughly fair value plus a little.

- The backlog itself is still accelerating. $638B RPO, up 363% YoY, $67B of AI contracts signed in one quarter alone, and the ~$300B OpenAI commitment sits inside that number.

Two fear narratives dragged this stock down 57% while the underlying numbers went the opposite direction. Thursday's print is the first real chance for the AGI/Astra sentiment shift to collide with a valuation that's already pricing in almost none of it.

I don't need a miracle quarter for $250, I need the market to stop pricing this like a distressed SaaS name and start pricing it like what it actually is: the infrastructure layer for the thing Jensen just said has arrived.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

Yeah, reminds me of last October when NBIS collapsed back to 60 and traded between 60-90 for months.

I had the same concerns I did then as I do now, being “what happens when we see a broader market pull back if this is how they are performing while the market is at all time highs”

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

What is wrong with the neocloud sector?
$NBIS
$CRWV
$APLD
$IREN

These things can't catch a break, and give it all back the next day in the off chance they do catch a break.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@DeepIceValue

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@StockOptionCole Was about to sell my leveraged position today. Let’s see if you’re right.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@FunOfInvesting $MU price action makes zero sense. Smart play.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

$AMD
P/E - 160
Forward P/E - 40

$MU
P/E - 14
Forward P/E - 6

The market continues to bid up and reward companies that promise making money more than they reward the companies making money. $MU valuation continues to make no sense to me. Could go to $2,000 tomorrow and still wouldn't make sense.

When is the market going to wake up? What will it take?

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@QC_Capital_ Stuck until the options bought for earnings expire.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

$MU is broken. Guessing there were a lot of 10/09 calls bought for last weeks earnings

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

Yet the market would rather pump stocks with PEs above 100 when this is sitting with a PE of 14. Don’t even get me started on forward PE… makes zero sense. The valuation will catch up on $MU eventually. This is just like 2025 $AMD.

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

Micron is now generating more operating income than Apple.

$MU $AAPL

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@stevenfiorillo @marketswithmay #TeamSteve

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@bennytrades_ I think it was just algos. The whole sector was down the same. $IREN and $CRWV weren't down because $NBIS insiders sold. We just have to find something to rationalize the pain, and this is the most logical thing.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@LeopoldTracker_ Good, now they will let $MU go up.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@optionscjp That’s why it was down today or this news broke after hours?

Likely a scheduled sell anyways and just algos taking it down, but appreciate anyone who can answer.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@AdityaInvests90 Yeah. Algos just decided this random Monday is a -5% day for this sector $NBIS $IREN $CRWV $KEEL. Hopefully no continuation tomorrow.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

Looks like algos got ahold of our $NBIS

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@Padres Its on the batters for not showing up, AGAIN, but Mason Miller was scared out there. He had the fear of God in his eyes. He's not meant for playoff baseball.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@Grayson92265934 @yelichfans @RyanCohen24 Straight to attacking over a joke. Solid display of the average Brewers fans intelligence. No bias here, surely.

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@Alankey25 @ArtificialBoy00 @MLB @Brewers Aight nvm, next comment buddy said “roof won it for them”. You got it lmfao 🤝

[Pres Invests @YieldTheories]

@Alankey25 @ArtificialBoy00 @MLB @Brewers Nowhere in this thread did anyone say the padres lost this game because of one bad break. The person you’re replying to just said it happened and it’s stupid, which it is. It is a reason they lost, but it’s not the reason they lost.