ささやき

気になる情報やお得な事など、幅広く発信できればと思っています。よろしくお願いします。4N3A4BUK

[ささやき @yjs7763]

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SoSoValue Flash: U.S.–Iran Deal Enters Geneva Countdown, Rebounding Tech Restores Market Appetite

💥 Core Catalyst:
Deal Signed: Ceasefire MOU signed electronically; formal ceremony set for June 19 in Geneva, after which the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.Transit Fees: Sources report Iran plans to charge shipping service fees (security, navigation, environment, insurance) after the 60-day free window.
Israel Stance: PM Netanyahu publicly refused to withdraw troops, reserving the right to strike Hezbollah.

🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro Uncertainty Drops: The deal sharply repairs risk appetite. While Israel’s rift with Trump and upcoming transit fees may pose minor friction, Trump's resolve to exit the war keeps the overall market impact contained.
2️⃣ Fed & Liquidity: Peace ahead of the FOMC leaves dovish room for Warsh's debut. SpaceX's IPO is complete, fading its liquidity drain and sparking a mega-cap tech rebound.
3️⃣ AI Focus: AI reclaims center stage amid a calmer macro backdrop. The sector continues high-altitude consolidation, with memory and CPU remaining the highest-conviction clusters.

📊 Trade Setup:
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC | $TSM

[ささやき @yjs7763]

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⏰ Upcoming Token Unlocks (Jun 15 - Jun 21）

Several crypto projects will unlock tokens this week, including $SEI, $ARB, $ZK, $ZRO, $KAITO, $UDS

Investors, keep an eye on these token unlocks events!

[ささやき @yjs7763]

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Big day for Space X.

See views from our research community and check out the brand new RWA Research Hub. 👇

[ささやき @yjs7763]

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Big day for Space X.

See views from our research community and check out the brand new RWA Research Hub. 👇

[ささやき @yjs7763]

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[ささやき @yjs7763]

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SoSoValue Flash: Trump Brinkmanship De-escalates to Lift Sentiment, SpaceX Capital Unlock Triggers Hardware Rebound

💥 Core Catalyst:
The Middle East geopolitical theater experienced a sudden u-turn. Trump initially declared an imminent full-scale strike on Iran and the immediate seizure of Kharg Island, only to abruptly stand down as the framework text was finalized and approved by Iran's senior leadership. Trump expects a formal signing ceremony shortly in Europe, with VP Vance attending. However, Iran noted that "no final decision has been made" yet; while most of the text is settled, Tehran refuses to compromise on its core red lines, and the draft remains under structural review.

🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro & Yields: Trump's abrupt policy pivot (another rapid TACO) triggered a rapid decompression in risk premiums. Brent crude broke below $90 and the 10Y Treasury yield slipped under 4.5%. However, underlying macro signals remain mixed: the May PPI print arrived slightly hot while core PPI undershot, driven by sticky energy services. Concurrently, weekly jobless claims continue to climb, leaving the Fed stuck in a complex stagflationary "weaker jobs + sticky inflation" bottleneck.
2️⃣ Liquidity & SpaceX: The historic SpaceX IPO is materializing with overwhelming demand. Reports indicate the deal is over 4x oversubscribed with a staggering $100B in retail orders alone, forcing the retail allocation to compress slightly above 20%. Crucially, the expiration of this massive subscription capital lock-up has released vast amounts of idle cash back into the financial system, instantly alleviating the secondary market's recent liquidity drain.
3️⃣ Sector Rotation: Seizing on the newly unlocked dry powder, the highly crowded AI hardware clusters (Memory, CPU, and Foundries) spearheaded a broad-based index rebound. With the broader technology sector in a near-term catalyst vacuum following the conclusion of ComputeX, AI is expected to continue its high-altitude consolidation, while attention swings to the Monday launch of over a dozen 2x leveraged long/inverse SpaceX ETFs from ProShares and Direxion. Additionally, the ECB delivered a well-anticipated 25bp rate hike on Thursday.

📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC | $TSM

[ささやき @yjs7763]

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SoSoValue Flash: Severe Geopolitical Reignited, CPI Holds Steady, Heavy Capex Warnings Trigger Tech Volatility

💥 Core Catalyst:
The Middle East situation has sharply re-escalated. Dissatisfied with slow talks, Trump threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges if a deal isn't signed. Following the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter, the U.S. launched nearly 4 hours of retaliatory airstrikes, claiming Iran's control capability in the strait was eliminated (which Iran denies). In response, Iran issued stern warnings and the Strait of Hormuz has been fully closed. Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at 21 key strategic Gulf targets, including a U.S. base in Jordan.

🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro Risks: Trump's hawkish military threats have fundamentally disrupted the market’s prior baseline assumption that he would avoid reopening active hostilities. However, the macro front received some insulation as the May CPI print arrived broadly in line (with core slightly below expectations). Feared second-round effects from oil pass-through, World Cup distortions, and endogenous inflation failed to materialize.
2️⃣ Liquidity Drain: U.S. equities remain locked in a tug-of-war between macro anxiety and secular AI momentum. On the capital front, the ongoing SpaceX IPO continues to absorb significant institutional liquidity. The trading desk notes a broader decline in secondary market depth, which is amplifying short-term volatility across major indices.
3️⃣ Capex Concerns: AI momentum continues to consolidate at elevated levels during a post-ComputeX catalyst vacuum. While Oracle's post-close earnings and guidance matched consensus, its massive $40 billion equity and debt fundraising blueprint for the next fiscal year reignited fierce market anxieties over over-extended capex. Shares plunged 11% after-hours, acting as a direct drag on tech sentiment.

📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC | $TSM

[ささやき @yjs7763]

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[ささやき @yjs7763]

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